Posted on 03/18/2016 9:29:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Yeah, as much as we’re all enjoying these fantasy scenarios in which the RNC wrests the nomination from Trump through some procedural chicanery and banishes him to the island of third-party losers, I think in the end they’ll convince themselves that they can ride the tiger. Crown Trump as the duly elected nominee once he has a majority of delegates, be good soldiers for him in the general election, and if he loses as badly as the smart set thinks he will, cross your fingers and hope that some of your new nationalist voters will stick around for the 2018 midterms and beyond.
I think Trump will make it a little easier for them too during the general election. He has zero incentive to continue pandering to his base this summer and fall; he could go full communist and they’ll vote for him anyway. The way to beat Hillary is to tone down the authoritarian nonsense, start talking up economic populism, and do what little he can to sound more “presidential.” In the meantime, though, “I look forward to watching Sean Spicer defend religious tests and mass deportation,” tweets David Harsanyi. “Should do wonders for RNC’s future.” Hey, Spicer’s already started lying about Trump’s prediction of riots at the convention. Religious tests and mass deportation should be easy for him after that.
I wonder how many RNC officers will resign in protest rather than carry Trump’s water in the general election. The RNC is obliged to defend its nominee as an institution, but just as #NeverTrumpers are under no obligation to vote for him (sorry, Huck!), Spicer and Reince Priebus are under no obligation to work for him. We’ll see. Speaking of the general election, though: If the vote in California on June 7th looks anything like this poll, which currently has Trump leading Cruz 38/23, then you almost certainly won’t have to worry about a floor fight and cheating. Every projection I’ve seen from election nerds over the past two days has Trump over 1,000 delegates, and sometimes over 1,100, by the time the last five states vote on June 7th. California is the big prize that night, of course, with 172 delegates at stake. Those delegates are awarded winner-take-all by congressional district, so if Trump beats Cruz consistently across the state, even if it’s by just a few points, he’d win a huge windfall of delegates and very likely clinch the 1,237 he needs for the nomination. Obviously, lots of caveats apply. We’re nearly three months removed from California voting, and the poll, which was taken a week ago, includes Marco Rubio, who’s at 10 percent.
Cruz will pick up some of that. Another recent poll has the race much tighter, with Trump up just five points over Cruz and another 33 percent split between Kasich and Rubio, giving Cruz even more hope. The dynamics of the race, with Trump potentially on the brink of clinching, will also heavily influence what Californians do, needless to say. John Kasich is at 20 percent in this poll but if he’s still in the game on June 7th and Cruz needs a goal-line stand in CA to block Trump from 1,237, some anti-Trump Kasich fans there will switch their vote to Cruz to help. The suspense that night could reach “overtime in the Super Bowl” levels, even though, er, it’s highly likely that Trump will be close enough to 1,237 even if he loses California that he’ll be able to clinch at the convention anyway by mopping up a few unbound delegates.
That is, unless Kasich quits sometime soon and makes this a two-man race. RCP’s Sean Trende ran some numbers to try to gauge just how badly Kasich’s continued presence in the race will hurt Cruz. Answer: Badly.
I ran two different scenarios in our delegate calculator. I won’t give you the specifics, but the general idea is this: I generally gave Trump 40 percent of the vote, to Cruz’s 35 percent and Kasich’s 25 percent. In New England, I gave Trump 60 percent of the vote to Kasich’s 25 percent and Cruz’s 15. In West Virginia, I gave Trump 60 percent, Cruz 25 percent and Kasich 15 percent. I also skipped Colorado, North Dakota, and American Samoa, since their delegations are unbound…
I then re-ran the scenario without Kasich, allocating 70 percent of his vote to Cruz and 30 percent to Trump…
The outcome is fairly stark. Under the first scenario, Trump wins 1,296 delegates and clinches the nomination on the last day of primary voting.
Under the second, Kasich-less scenario, however, Trump has 1,125 delegates, while Cruz collects 899. Given that under the second scenario, Cruz rattles off a string of wins at the end, and given the fact that Rubio’s and Kasich’s 300 delegates would probably disproportionately gravitate toward Cruz, this would likely be enough deny Trump the nomination.
Kasich staying in, if Trende’s guesstimates are right, is likely the difference between Trump as nominee and Cruz as nominee. It’s a 170-delegate difference to Trump’s totals alone. And to think, like most of the other anti-Trumpers out there, I was dumb enough to celebrate on Tuesday night when Kasich won Ohio, denying Trump a 66-delegate windfall even though it guaranteed that he’d stay in the race and continue to do terrible damage. That’s the sort of strategic shortsightedness that’s crippled Trump’s opponents for the past nine months. In a way, we deserve him.
I’ve said for weeks not that Cruz is not playing to win outright and that’s clear. Otherwise he should have actively been attacking Rubio and Kasich to ensure that Trump wins both. At this point, It’s Trump or Convention, not Trump or Cruz
I’ll also ignore my reservation and vote for Trump.
My wife (Hispanic) and my kids (one liberal and one conservative) are all Trump supporters. Go figure.
Too bad RNC speaks for less than 15%.
Zero. Unlike dogmatic screaming heads in the punditry, they are not interested in these mindless daily hysterics about “Conservative Purity”. Their job is electing as many GOP candidate to office as possible
Exactamundo. Going to be a rough November down ticket for the GOP if they insist on a civil war with the top of ticket.
Well when you Cruz people spent month making “Guilt By Association” attacks at Trump, you should expect the same thing to happen when your guy starts hiring Bush people to run his campaign.
It boils down to this:
Does the GOP want to have the House, Senate and White House, or are they willing to lost the White House and very likely the Senate to the Dems?
If they are willing to give the wins to the Dems, they will also likely lose the House in 2018, thus giving President Hillary the Senate and the House. Think what kind of hell that will loose on the Nation. Remember Obama’s first 2 years and multiply that by a factor of infinity — regulations and Supreme appointements and other judicial appointments and massive new and revised laws.
Can charges be brought against specific media outlets for inciting hatred and protests?
I think the Trump Team should make commercials MOCKING the media’s 24/7 assault of lies.
“Alinsky” them right back!
“IF he is the nominee” <— Operative words.
suddenly I realize the real meaning of that FoxNew debate pledge to support the “GOP nominee whoever it may be...”
They still can’t see the writing on the wall. I believe Trump will win and his percentages will keep rising. These numbers crunchers don’t seem to understand the concept of momentum (which Cruz does NOT have).
Yep, total head fake.
That’s a big IF.
“That is, unless Kasich quits sometime soon and makes this a two-man race. RCP’s Sean Trende ran some numbers to try to gauge just how badly Kasich’s continued presence in the race will hurt Cruz. Answer: Badly.”
That is the money shot right there. We all know Kasich is hurting Cruz a lot more than Trump.
“Take me in, tender woman
Take me in, for heaven’s sake
Take me in, tender woman,” sighed the snake
“I saved you,” cried the woman
“And you’ve bitten me, but why?
You know your bite is poisonous and now I’m going to die”
“Oh shut up, silly woman,” said the reptile with a grin
“You knew damn well I was a snake before you took me in
The big question is who is best, Trump or Hillary, and the answer is obvious.
Assuming Trump accumulates the required number of votes to put him over the finish line, there are many of us who recoil in distaste at his behavior but who will nevertheless vote (even work) for him.
That’s because we are loyal Americans, and most of us know that all candidates and Presidents have feet of clay. They are all flawed.
Assuming we can get him elected, the trouble will begin when he shows his true colors (which are still far superior to Hillary), and we have to rise together to keep him in check.
I would argue that with such horrid Presidential choices this year, the bigger issues are retaining the Senate and power to appoint to SCOTUS.
For them Its like being forced to sit next to a man who just sh## himself.
Funny how all the rules - excepting one - seem to be subject to change at the convention. That rule, of course, is the 1,237 delegate requirement.
If majority rule is such a bedrock principle to the RNC, why does it in essence disappear after the first round when many delegates no longer have to vote for who the voting public selected?
Change the rule to say that if no candidate gets 1,237 votes in the first round, unbound delegates (but not bound ones) will be allowed to reconsider their first round votes. The House and Senate do it every day. Call it Round 1(a) if need be to keep bound delegates bound.
The furthest thing from majority rule comes from past tales of released delegates being bribed to support another candidate. If that is allowed (and has been wildly celebrated by media idiots of late) what would be wrong with setting a threshold of, say, 45%, for the above rule to kick in? Or maybe releasing only delegates who voted for a candidate coming in below #2 in the 1st Round for a revote?
The whole thing is a charade anyway - while most delegates are legally bound, nobody on the rules committee is bound to any particular position. Anything more democratic than the existing 2nd Round free-for-all would improve adherence to majority rule.
Ben Franklin said the idea of taxation is to pluck the most feathers from the bird and get the least squawking. Well, this process is designed to give the best image of democracy in action while giving up the least power.
Common misconception these days. The will of the people is not truly exercised until November. That must not be denied.
Until August, the will of however many, however strange, however errant political parties is up to those political parties.
That’s where we are in the process right now.
Those who have climbed their way to the party leadership have the power to run the party apparatus and manipulate its final ticket. Voters, like shareholders in a corporation, get some input, but the corporate leadership will eventually do what it wants.
Like it or not, that’s what goes on in both parties. All this primary/caucus stuff is just testing the waters, seeing which candidates are palatable to the public.
Unfortunately, this year, both parties are ending up with frightening results. The public is angry, and we humans often think irrationally when enraged. Thus Trump and Bernie. Hillary is a flawed product of party inbreeding.
So that’s how it is. Again, the will of the people rules in November. The will of the parties is in force until then.
Will Glen Beck be there?
Then stop this charade. Let’s just do oligarchy.
weasel words.. from weasels in 3 piece suits.
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