Posted on 03/15/2016 10:25:48 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The two leading GOP campaigns intend to muscle the Ohio governor out of the race.
Advisers to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz say there's no way they'll allow John Kasich to even compete at a contested national convention -- let alone prevail.
Trump and Cruz are betting that their dual dominance in the delegate hunt will permanently box out the Ohio governor, who has no mathematical path to the nomination and is openly pursuing a floor fight at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. And their aides say Kasich won't even make it to the floor.
"There is virtually zero chance he can even be nominated," Saul Anuzis, a former Michigan Republican national committeeman who's advising Cruz on his convention strategy, told POLITICO. "It's a two-man race."
Their confidence is rooted in the fact that Trump and Cruz are nearly certain to control the lion's share of the 2,472 delegates participating in the July convention. Together, they've earned more than 1,000 delegate slots to Kasich's 136. And those delegates will ultimately approve the rules that govern a contested convention.
In addition, a rule adopted at the 2012 convention -- pushed by supporters of Mitt Romney to box out Ron Paul -- requires that any candidate eligible for the nomination win the majority of delegates in eight states or territories. In 31 contests so far, Kasich's only win came Tuesday night in Ohio -- his home state -- and it's unlikely he'll command majority support in seven of the remaining 20 contests.
There's a small chance Cruz could fail to meet the target as well. He's only won majority support in four contests so far. Trump, with a dominant win in the Northern Mariana Islands early Tuesday, became the first candidate to cross the threshold.
To be sure, the convention rules will get a thorough review and revision when delegates convene in Cleveland, raising the possibility that the threshold to participate could be lowered, making room for Kasich. But with Trump and Cruz delegates at the helm, it's unlikely they'll adjust it to help a rival.
"The Cruz folks would never allow the rules to be changed and of course we wouldn't either," said Barry Bennett, who's coordinating Trump's convention strategy. "The laws of math are not amendable."
Trump's resounding wins in Florida, Illinois and North Carolina on Tuesday may preclude a contested convention altogether. If he secures the support of a majority of delegates over the next three months, he would enter Cleveland as the presumptive nominee and head off any challenge to his supremacy. But Kasich has predicated his candidacy on the notion that no one will have a majority entering the convention. What's been unclear until now is that even if he's right, Kasich may have little reason to hope he'll get the party's nod.
A Kasich spokesman said the naysaying only fuels the governor further. "With so many states still to go, and the map becoming increasingly Kasich-friendly, there's little doubt we will be going all the way to Cleveland," said the spokesman, Rob Nichols. " The same people trying to write us off at the convention were also trying to write us off for the first debate, for New Hampshire, after South Carolina and countless other times. How'd that work out? We're very comfortable with our place, our strategy and our future."
In that vein, Kasich's campaign foreshadowed its plans for a convention brawl late Tuesday, naming Stu Spencer and Charlie Black -- two veterans of the last contested convention, the 1976 fight between President Gerald Ford and an insurgent Ronald Reagan -- to his national strategy team.
Tom Rath, a Kasich adviser from New Hampshire and veteran of the Republican convention process, said Trump and Cruz's advisers may be overlooking the role of politics at the convention. If a contested convention arrives, and Kasich is dramatically outpolling Trump and Cruz against Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, convention delegates may make judgments based on political calculus.
"It's a political convention and sooner or later, the realities of the moment politically, which we cannot foresee now, will overwhelm all the process in the world," Rath said. "You cannot make a judgment about what could happen until you know the political context within which that action is happening."
Charlie Dent, a Pennsylvania Republican Congressman and Kasich supporter, added that convention delegates must consider who can win in November as part of their process. "The rule of the party is to make sure to advance the best candidate for the general election. I think all the delegates are going to have to sit down and think this through very carefully.
Rath said that if Trump and Cruz are unable to break a deadlock to hand one of them the nomination, convention delegates can suspend their rules -- including the eight-state threshold -- to give other candidates the chance to put their names forward. Paul Ryan, who as House speaker presides over the convention, would preside over that process -- and his determinations on suspending convention rules could carry the day. Rath added that a deadlocked situation could also elevate Kasich as critical tie breaker -- perhaps the key to assembling a winning coalition.
Morton Blackwell, a Republican national committeeman from Pennsylvania who has attended every national convention since 1964, said he foresaw the obstacle that the rules would cause and pressed to revise them at a meeting in January, before any primary contests had been held. He was ultimately shot down. He says he's concerned that any attempt to lower the threshold now -- at the expense of Trump and Cruz -- would be viewed as an attempt by insiders to rig the convention against the two anti-establishment candidates.
"Reintroducing it now would be a cause of war," he said. "I don't want the scandal of a change in the rules ... I think we're much more likely to lose if there's an attempt to change the rules no matter who it helps or hurts."
‘The main problem Cruz have with Trump is that he think Trump is a fake Conservative. Well be his VP and keep him honest’
Trump cannot have a VP who is not an article 2 natural born citizen. His ticket would be invalid if he does, unless the Constitution is properly amended to allow non-nbc to be the VP/president.
Besides, can a dishonest VP who ignores the article 2 natural born citizen requirement, and, who sides with the left’s violent actions to deny others the right to freedom of speech, keep anyone honest?
Rinos need not apply.....
The boys who win the battles make the rules and that rules out any establishment types whatsoever.
ANY!
‘Trump/Cruz ticket beats the communists, Trump serves 4 years and Cruz takes over. They fix it so the marxists never win a national election again.’
That would be great, except this one huge problem - the US Constitution would be dismantled should Cruz become the VP or president (he is NOT constitutionally eligible!) Cruz and his supporters who love the Constitution won’t want that, will they?
Besides,
if Cruz is the VP on the Trump ticket, the left/communists will remove the Trump/Cruz ticket on constitutional ground - that Cruz is not eligible to be VP!
then hildebeast will be there at the oval office!
Cruz ia not a natural born citizen and there are plenty of Marxist judges who will find “standing” for the case. And...Cruz has never provided the documentation that he is even a citizen at all.
It steamed me when Obama did it and I am even more irritated that a Republican is driving a stake through the heart of Article 2, Section 1. It would be especially ironic if the Marxo-Dems save this section of the Constitution.
Cruz is **not** a natural born citizen and there are plenty of Marxocrat judges who will take the case and rule in the Marxists’ favor.
To each their own...
I love hair colors...I’ve tried them all except Black like Chris Wallace uses..
If Donald J. Trump feels comfortable with his hair color and style..good...it is his choice. Doesn’t bother me at all.
I was referring to Kasich. I support Trump because he will win in a landslide, whereas I think Cruz will lose.
I still have a feeling we are going to see a Trump/Cruz alliance against the GOPe which would short circuit all of this. I think that meeting the two of them had last year was bigger than people realize. Just a hunch.
Please tell me Ted is finally coming to his senses, he never really looked that convincing when he went after Trump.
And little marco promised he was going on to Utah. These pols live in a fantasy world and they need to stop lying to themselves and more importantly to the people.
They are working together.
Good.
Wow, this got moved to breaking. Gonna be tricky to announce the alliance, though. Have to get the LSM speculating about it at first.
It’s huge news, imho, txhurl.
It’s among the best news items the outsiders have heard out of the campaign for a couple of months.
He will only have Ohio, the home town person.
And not a minute too soon. The ship was “ this close to cracking in half.. there are some FReepers on both sides this instant disgusted at unifying the ticket, believe it or not!
Second it.
I would support it in a heartbeat
And anyone who doesn’t needs to leave FR. Everybody’s had fun trashing the other guy: time to unite and BURY the left once and for all.
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