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Trump Would Dominate Clinton, Sanders in the General Election, Data Model Predicts
PJ Media ^ | March 8, 2016 | Walter Hudson

Posted on 03/08/2016 6:09:04 PM PST by Kaslin

Much of the criticism aimed toward presidential candidate Donald Trump by other Republicans has been predicated on the assumption that he will lose in the general election. Trump's many provocative statements, which would be considered gaffes if uttered by any other candidate but have somehow worked for him, are generally assumed to preclude him from securing the broad support necessary to claim victory in November.

However, one method of analysis known as the Primary Model predicts that Trump would not only win in the general if nominated by Republicans, but completely dominate. From the Huffington Post:

Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton with 87 percent certainty, and Bernie Sanders with 99 percent.

These forecasts come from the PRIMARY MODEL. It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election.

Early primaries are a leading indicator of electoral victory in November. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and the South Carolina while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the Democratic primaries in those states.

What favors the GOP in 2016 as well, no matter if Trump is the nominee or any other Republican, is a cycle of presidential elections. After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year. This cycle, which is illustrated with elections since 1960, goes back a long way to 1828.

Basically, the Primary Model looks at how well candidates perform in their respective party primaries and extrapolates from there how they will do in the general. According to Helmut Norpoth, a professor of political science at Stony Brook University and the author of the HuffPo piece, the model accurately predicts the winner every presidential election since 1912 with only one exception. Incidentally, the model also shows both Cruz and Rubio losing if nominated.

The question is whether Trump could be the next blemish on the Primary Model's record. Not all things are equal in this election cycle. Trump's candidacy has defied conventional political science in more ways than one. Can statistical analysis account for the impact of Democrats beating Trump over the head with David Duke ads all summer?


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bsmodel; dimeadozen; presidentmccain; presidentromney; trump; trumpvshillary
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1 posted on 03/08/2016 6:09:04 PM PST by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

NO WAY….Ted will win the general HAHAHAH. Not.


2 posted on 03/08/2016 6:10:44 PM PST by toddausauras (Trump 2016)
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To: Kaslin

35 states


3 posted on 03/08/2016 6:12:35 PM PST by Lurkinanloomin (Know Islam, No peace - No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: Kaslin

Should Trump win the general election I think he will have rather long coattails.


4 posted on 03/08/2016 6:14:13 PM PST by TheDon (BO must be replaced immediately for the good of the nation and the world!)
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To: TheDon

38 million in vicious attack ads against Trump....WASTED.


5 posted on 03/08/2016 6:16:01 PM PST by Sasparilla (Hillary for Prosecution 2016)
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To: toddausauras

I’m not voting for Cruz but he could actually win depending on how weak the Democrats end up.


6 posted on 03/08/2016 6:17:26 PM PST by erlayman (yw)
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To: TheDon
Should Trump win the general election I think he will have rather long coattails.

He's starting to cultivate that tonight: smart.

7 posted on 03/08/2016 6:17:57 PM PST by papertyger (-/\/\/\-)
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To: TheDon

At that point he might be publicly smelling out candidates who say they are willing to work with him.

That could be a mix of Rep and Dem.


8 posted on 03/08/2016 6:19:22 PM PST by HiTech RedNeck (Embrace the Lion of Judah and He will roar for you and teach you to roar too. See my page.)
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To: Kaslin

MICHIGAN:
TRUMP WINS
SANDERS 51% CLINTON 47%

MISSISSIPPI:
CLINTON, TRUMP WIN

Trump will win over hillary, so be prepared for another treasonist act from obama.


9 posted on 03/08/2016 6:20:57 PM PST by TribalPrincess2U (0bama's agenda�Divide and conquer seems to be working.)
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To: toddausauras

“NO WAY….Ted will win the general HAHAHAH. Not.”

Well, Ted “is on his way tonight!” Third place is the new winner in MI (Trump +16%) and second place is the new winner in MS (Trump +16%).


10 posted on 03/08/2016 6:21:28 PM PST by vette6387 (Obama can go to hell!)
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To: Sasparilla
38 million in vicious attack ads against Trump....WASTED.

Would love a counter of all the money wasted by Republicans against our lovable 'orange gumby'.

11 posted on 03/08/2016 6:22:05 PM PST by The Iceman Cometh (With Cruz You Get Rubio)
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To: Sasparilla

If anything, they’ve gotten people asking “Is Donald Trump all that bad?” And frequently they come away with the answer “no.”


12 posted on 03/08/2016 6:23:33 PM PST by HiTech RedNeck (Embrace the Lion of Judah and He will roar for you and teach you to roar too. See my page.)
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To: TribalPrincess2U

Trump will win over hillary, so be prepared for another treasonist act from obama.


Those so inclined might want to say some prayers for the safety of Donald Trump.


13 posted on 03/08/2016 6:23:44 PM PST by laplata ( Liberals/Progressives have diseased minds.)
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To: TheDon

“Coattails” is a big question. Among other support, Trump is appealing to white middle class dems who feel just as abandoned by their party as white middle class pubs do by the despicable GOPe.

I can see these disenfranchised dems going to the booth to vote for Trump but then putting an “x” next to the dem all the rest of the way down the ballot.

But who knows? This whole thing is completely uncharted territory.


14 posted on 03/08/2016 6:25:05 PM PST by KyCats
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To: papertyger

Cruz is the best Constitutional candidate but Trump is by far and away the smarter. I wish I was as quick on my feet as he is and he is 69.


15 posted on 03/08/2016 6:25:15 PM PST by JAKraig (my religion is at least as good as yours)
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To: Sasparilla

“38 million in vicious attack ads against Trump....WASTED.”

Trump is blowing apart the entire corrupt campaign SCAM. Lobbyists run this country. And all they know how to do is waste money.


16 posted on 03/08/2016 6:25:29 PM PST by AuntB (Illegal immigration is simply more "share the wealth" socialism and a CRIME not a race!)
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To: JAKraig

Cruz could well serve an advisory/supportive role to Trump. I don’t see Trump as a grudge holder as much as an alpha dog. Once the beta dogs agree with him that they are beta dogs, then the whole pack gets along fine.


17 posted on 03/08/2016 6:26:54 PM PST by HiTech RedNeck (Embrace the Lion of Judah and He will roar for you and teach you to roar too. See my page.)
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To: Kaslin
Trump Would Dominate Clinton, Sanders in the General Election, Data Model Predicts

Now I understand why the republican branch of the Unirparty wants to take Trump out.


18 posted on 03/08/2016 6:26:57 PM PST by Iron Munro (Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth -- Mike Tyson)
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To: Kaslin

Those of us supporting him knew this all along.


19 posted on 03/08/2016 6:27:18 PM PST by mabelkitty (Trump 2016! #NoDNoR - Send Congress packing - third party in 2016!!)
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To: Iron Munro

This is the thing. I actually prefer Cruz and in the general election there is a chance that Cruz could eke out a win against Clinton. But Trump would destroy her. I’d rather go with the certain win.


20 posted on 03/08/2016 6:33:17 PM PST by KyCats
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