Posted on 03/07/2016 11:05:18 AM PST by tatown
(CNN)Donald Trump is leading Marco Rubio in the Florida senator's home state by 8 percentage points, a Monmouth University poll out Monday shows.
Trump has the support of 38% of Florida's likely GOP primary voters, compared to 30% who back Rubio, 17% for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and 10% for Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
The snapshot of Florida comes before the state's crucial 99-delegate, winner-take-all primary set for March 15.
It's a must-win for Rubio, who has fallen behind Trump and Cruz in the delegate race after taking only two of the first 20 Republican contests.
The poll undercuts the argument that Rubio could win if he faced Trump head-to-head: The real-estate mogul leads a one-on-one race, 47% to 45%.
The poll shows Rubio leading among Floridians who have already cast their ballots in early voting, while Trump does better with those who haven't voted yet.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
I believe Cruz share of the vote will grow. The question is whether the votes come from the Trump or Rubio side.
That is huge news on the released early vote count. Give us the site. I will call the media!!
Not saying this poll isn’t correct, however, it is only 400 LV’s and the MOE is fairly large for the sub-groups, somewhere on the magnitude of +/-8 for the early voters.
I live in Tampa so I expect the lines to be extremely long on election day, given how turnout has been going. Didn’t want to end up standing in line for 4 hours. I was only behind about 10 people when I went downtown on Saturday. In and out smoothly.
it isn’t going to come from Trump.. Rubio’s LA voters went Cruz to try to stop Trump
It’s possible the same thing will end up happening in FL.
That’s a small sample size for the state of Florida.
Rubio’s big problem is that Trump already has a huge number of votes already in the bank via absentee and early votes. I think Trump wins Florida by a margin very similar to Georgia and South Carolina but possibly narrower due to late decider shifts. Trump has spent a lot of time in Florida. Trump though hasn’t been underperforming instead the key was Cruz was over performing and if that happens in Florida as I expect Trump will win easily. Trump’s voters aren’t going anywhere but Rubio’s are splitting off. If Trump wins Florida or Ohio I think its going to be very hard for anyone to make a case that hes not going to be the nominee because even with a head to head with Cruz Trump still has state where he will blow out Cruz and those are the bigger states like New York. If Trump wins both Florida and Ohio and I believe there is a really good chance he will its over.
Early voting always favors trump also.
Does anyone know when the next debate is?
Interesting in that it states that Rubio leads among early voters (those that have already cast a vote). Trump leads with those that have yet to vote.
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Funny.
You don’t have a lead if folks haven’t yet voted. Polls arent votes.
Cruz opened bunch of Fla offices and such, really can’t afford to be distant 3rd, that might cripple any mo, real or imagined ... yet the Robot figures back to 4th behind Ted’s 3rd & MailmanJr runner-up in Michigan ... unbelievable how well this is all working out to Trump’s advantage ...
That’s the second recent poll in the past week showing Trump’s lead in FL down from around 20% to single digits...
My voting station is never that bad and I go during the late morning .
My oldest votes fro the first time and is looking forward to it as am I.
How do you know he leads with early voting? Was that part of this poll?
Actually, there was a poll by the Tarrance group last week that showed Trump 35%, Rubio 30% - so I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it.
Would be awesome if Cruz would take second and really kick Rubio in hos woman parts.
It says so in the article that is linked to this thread.
The error term is based on the size of the sample. It’s not going to vary based on the size of the state.
We’re getting pounded with “stop Trump” ads in Florida. Rubio will get the anti-Trump vote here.
Cruz was never really expected to compete for FL as long as Rubio was in. But this poll does show Cruz gaining in the state, so no, I don't think the Cruz surge is over.
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