Posted on 03/07/2016 10:03:24 AM PST by NYRepublican72
Donald Trump will likely win Tuesday’s Idaho Republican presidential vote, a new Idaho Politics Weekly poll finds.
The polls are open 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Tuesday. Only registered Republicans can vote in the closed contest, but political independents can register as Republicans at the polls and vote.
IPW’s pollster, Dan Jones & Associates, finds in a survey completed before last week’s Super Tuesday presidential results, that Trump has 30 percent support among Republicans, and 24 percent of political independents favor Trump.
Among all Idahoans, Trump is favored by 23 percent of adults. However, that sample includes Democrats and members of other parties who can’t vote Tuesday.
Here’s what Jones finds in the new survey, conducted Feb. 17-26:
Among Republicans:
30 percent favor Trump. 19 percent like Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. 16 percent would vote for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. 5 percent prefer Ohio Gov. John Kasich. 9 percent would vote for someone else if they could. And 11 percent don’t know. Retired doctor Ben Carson dropped out of t
(Excerpt) Read more at idahopoliticsweekly.com ...
Can jetfuel melt steel?
They might, but if Trump ends up the only one who qualifies under rule 40, changing the rules at the last moment is going to smack of unfairness.
On the other hand, if Trump is the only one that qualifies, he’ll probably have many more than the delegates necessary to clinch the nomination anyway.
Doesn't that bother you. Does the recent lack of polling on upcoming states worry you?
The media is pushing Cruz as anti-Trump. They're not doing polls because big leads favor Trump. They're calling Trump Hitler yet not a single word about the supposedly hated Cruz. Ted's war chest blew up with incoming GOP $ and he didn't turn it away. You'd better hope Trump's leads hold up because it's GOP or Trump.
If the Idaho primary were to match that poll Trump would get all delegates. I have no confidence in that poll.
“Only Voters registered as Republican are eligible to participate.
Tuesday 8 March 2016: All 32 of Idaho’s National Convention delegates are pledged to Presidential contenders based on the vote in today’s Presidential Primary.
* If one candidate wins more than 50% of the National Convention Delegates, that candidate receives all the National Convention Delegates. [Idaho Republican Party State Rules. Idaho Rules for Selection of Delegates to the National Convention and State Convention. Article VI. Section 3.(a)]
* Otherwise, if at least 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the statewide vote, the National Conventions delegates are allocated proportionally to those candidates receiving 20% or more of the statewide vote. [Idaho Republican Party State Rules. Idaho Rules for Selection of Delegates to the National Convention and State Convention. Article VI. Section 3.(b)]
* Otherwise, National Conventions delegates are allocated proportionally. [Idaho Republican Party State Rules. Idaho Rules for Selection of Delegates to the National Convention and State Convention. Article VI. Section 3.(b)]
A NOTE re: Rounding: All rounding will be done to the nearest whole number. Any rounding and/or over/under allocated delegates will be handled by the Nominating Committee.”
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/ID-R
Thanks, I’ll check it out.
Idaho is a Rino state ruled by establishment types, they can’t even get concealed carry passed.
Do you really think they like him all of a sudden after everything he's done and said against them? Yeah sure........please.
A conservative is challenging your coronation and it has you upset. I understand. But that doesn't mean Cruz has anything to do with the establishment even though you want to tie him to them in the worst way. Cruz can't win with you guys because you hate him if he doesn't have support and when he does. If Cruz wins, will you support him or will you stay home, which is a vote for Hillary?
Cruz has had a stronger ground game nearly everywhere, but he still hasn’t won much. Idaho could go Cruz, not going to argue as I have no idea what’s going on out there.. but as I have said before, until you see Cruz win a large population/delegate primary state, the dynamics of the race haven’t shifted.
MS and MI are the two to watch tommorrow, Trump loses one or both of them, then we have an inflection point, and Trump will need to adjust.
Time will tell.
Many Trump supporters were hectoring others on these threads that the election would be over on Super Tuesday. Then it was Super Saturday. Now the goal posts have been moved to the 15th. Things are not going well with their plans so their only explanation is conspiracies and other intrigue involving fraud. It has nothing to do with their candidate. These states are being stolen from their guy! Riiight.
The establishment may try and steal this election from the two non-establishment candidates. If they do, or even if they try, the end of the party will result. We may get our candidate and the implosion of the Republican Party long before November or January. I'm ok with that.
The Caucuses are easy to manipulate it seems. They probably exist to act as firewalls by the establishment to game out the ones they don’t want so as to weaken them before the winner takes all states.
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Whose plans are going well? The GOPestablishment's? You want Trump to lose so bad you will look the other way when clear fraud is being perpetrated? You can only answer that.
What is sad that Cruz has only won two primary states and that was his own and a neighbor.
It doe snot bode well for him
“Do you really think they like him all of a sudden after everything he’s done and said against them?”
Are you not able to read?
(((((((((((the Gope is desperate to stop Trump.))))))))))))))
Is this a difficult statement to comprehend? Is it in English?
Or are you freaking out that the Gope and Cruz are likely to team up and it’s blowing a hole in the little narrative you’ve created about Cruz being the fearless uncompromising outsider independent?
Well sorry about that. Going to have to take that up with Bonnie Prince Ted when he springs it on all of you.
If the GOPe implodes and Trump or Cruz win in the process, it's all good. If Trump wins, I'll enthusiastically vote for him. If Cruz wins, will you vote for him or stay home while lashing out at those who don't see things the same way you do? Will you help Hillary or not?
What you say is true...and the Cruz win in Texas demonstrated it.
Winning Texas by 17.5% and gaining a 2 to 1 advantage in delegates there shifted the dynamics and tightened the race significantly. Without that...it would likely be over.
But for to have a chance to win outright, I agree that he has to do it a couple of more times...and the question becomes...where?
But, for Cruz to keep Trump from winning hands down, he does not necessarily have to win those states. If Rubio wins Florida (less likely at this point) and Kasich wins Ohio (more likely than Rubio winning in FL), then Cruz stays very close to Trump and might yet overtake him in total count.
We shall see.
I have to believe that Trump is going to take New York for sure. So he is going to get that injection.
It may come down to California in such a scenario.
But if Trump can pull off victories in Florida and Ohio and get that type of big rush and momentum...I think then it is likely over in terms of the final outcome.
YAY!! GO TRUMP!!
Yeah, so what? They've been desperate for several months now and none of their choices have worked. You're going full retard if you think Cruz is all of a sudden going to change who he is, and what he believes, simply because he's become the flavor of the week.
Your irrational hatred of Cruz is causing you to see things that just aren't there. It's nuts to think Cruz is suddenly going to become Jeb, Marco, Christie or Kasich. You keep throwing poo hoping something will stick. It seems to be what you guys do best.
I'll vote for Trump if he wins. Will you vote for Cruz if he wins or will you be voting for Hillary? You keep avoiding the question.
Yes, if Trump loses OH or FL, the race changes... but is it the end for Trump? Unless its Cruz who wins one or both of them, I don’t think so.
If Rubio wins FL and/or Kasich wins OH, you wind up with at least a 3 way race until at least 4/26 ... unless some back door deal is made. Trump is going to win, far more than he’s going to lose in a multi man race, he’s shown that again and again.
So losing 99 delegates or 66 delegates to a 3rd or 4th placer is certainly not what I am sure the Trump campaign wants, but if that means they go to someone who has no shot at the nomination and keeps the race divided, it certainly doesn’t kill him, and it doesn’t help Cruz either.
As the race moves into the Rust Belt, and Mid Atlantic, and out of the south, Cruz isn’t the threat he was supposed to be in the south, these states will play better for Kasich that Cruz, especially if Kasich should pull a surprise update in MI tomorrow and win OH as well. I don’t see Kasich having any real capacity to mount a serious threat to the nomination, but he certainly will stick around until 4/26 if he wins OH.
To date, Cruz’s strongest support seems to be in the western western states, low delegate states. And winner take all or not in those states, that’s not going to get him to the nomination.
If Trump takes FL and OH, then it is nearly certain that we are down to a 2 man race by the time the next states vote on 3/22... and then the head to head starts, and I think in Head to Head, Trump wins.... there are just too many big states he’s going to beat Cruz in to keep him from the nomination, especially if he’s up 300 or so and around 800 delegates by 3/15.
If Kasich or Rubio stick around then Trump probably winds up winning even more states, by plurality like he has been doing thus far.
Time will tell.
Your irrational hatred of Cruz is ...Blah blah blah”
If he wants that Gope help, he’s going to play ball.
If he tries to sneak in through the backdoor, they will turn the cannons on him, and he will be gone.
Either way, his campaign or image is finished. Just a matter of which one he values less.
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