Posted on 03/01/2016 2:44:19 PM PST by xzins
It appears that the media outlets have already begun to leak exit data about Super Tuesday results. It seems fairly predictable so far.
In the same way, what will happen with the Trump and Cruz haters in the media is also predictable. They will deny any victories on the part of either man by comparing it to what some talking head thinks "should have happened". We know that that has been a big part of their playbook to date, and we know that Marco Rubio is their establishment guy. They will pull out all the stops tonight, because he appears to be doing his personal rendition of "Nowhere Man".
Ted Cruz should win Texas, but count on the media telling you he is out of this race if that is all he wins.
Trump will win a lot, but count on the media telling you he's a loser if he doesn't win EVERYTHING! "He didn't meet expectations." they'll say. Well, whose? Theirs, of course. But, these are folks so impressed with their own intellect that they think we are dolts. That's one of the reasons we despise them and their compadres in the establishment.
On the other hand, if Rubio is, for sake of argument, second in some northern states, count on that being spun as a great victory and indication that he is viable while Cruz is not. Trump, who the media sees as Voldemort and Ebenezer Scrooge all rolled into one, will be discounted for any northern wins or broad support because 'he has disqualified himself'.
So, how will we actually determine who the winner might be? It's a simple two part formula: the candidate who loses the fewest states and also ends up with the most delegates from all the states involved.
Since this is a state-by-state primary election, and since it is also a state-by-state general election, the performance in states is important. But, so is the number of delegates gained. A candidate must have 1237 in order to outright win the nomination without a battle at the convention, so the more delegates the closer to that number.
As far as the media interpretation is concerned, the best rule is the same it has been for generations.
Don't trust them.
The media was in rare form bashing conservatives yesterday.
Expect the same tonight as they shill for Rubio and Kasich.
The winners will be the ones who still have an operational campaign - last man left standing.
Brilliant!
That is a practical perspective
All the more reason folks should be rooting for Cruz to win 2 if not 3 states tonight.
Make it oh so hard for the media to shill for cabana boy.
What is your prediction on the post Super Tuesday tally?
Remember after super Tuesday another 75% of the delegates will still be up for allocation, but the rules change to WINNER TAKE ALL, and the primaries move North to more friendly Trump states. Super Tuesday was supposed to be Cruz’s firewall.
Trump could win NJ, CT, NY, PA , IL, Michigan, Ohio, New York and California. Lots of Delegate rich states.
What do you think the Delegate count will be after today?
Cruz will be lucky to win his home state of Texas
Cruz has to do more than win Texas he has to get about 50% its his home state, he has the past and present Governors endorsement, tons of oil money, he has his fearsome ground game in place over one year.
No excuses if Ted doesn’t get at least 40%, anything less than 35% for Rafael is a loss. And if he doesn’t get 75% of the delegate allocation, its also not going to help him much catching up to Trump.
Cruz has built a machine in virtually all the states, to my knowledge. He has cash.
So, if today is rough on him, he could still choose to soldier on.
I wouldn’t recommend it.
But it’s feasible.
I forgot to mention Trump will win all 99 Florida delegates, about the same in New York. Where does Cruz win in the north?
But that cash is like the State Farm commercial with the fisherman dangling that dollar bill for the girl to try and grab. There are strings attached and if the fishermen who are dangling it there decide to cut bait . . . .
I think Donald is beholden to the mob. They’ve been lining his pockets for years with construction contracts.
Oh Pulease! Not this merde again!
“I think Donald is beholden to the mob. They’ve been lining his pockets for years with construction contracts.”
What a stupid thing to say... Trump does not build bowling alleys.
Exactly! Back atcha.
My prediction is: 300 Trump, 160 Cruz, 70ish Rubio, 40ish Kasich, 20ish Carson
In any case, better the Italian mob than Mexican gang cartels.
Exactly. They moved to the garbage game. It was far easier to explain than lumpy concrete and the resulting voids created by the eventual organic decomposition. So many municipalities use the Waste to Energy incinerators.
I stupidly (without even thinking) said Trump would win 215 delegates today (for a total of about 320, but likely he will win closer to 315 and be over 400.
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