[BlueNgold]

Remember that any winner take all state will qualify necessarily as a majority delegate win, and therefore count towards the required Magic 8.

The Magic 8 is a count to watch on Tuesday to see if any candidate grabs a majority delegation. Indications are that Trump could gain at least 3 more qualifying states on Tuesday, possibly as many as 9. Delegates in many states are allocated by congressional district the way SC does it. TX is similar, so Ted could get on the board as well.

Come Wednesday, unless something changes dramatically, Trump could be the first, and thus far only, candidate to reach the magic 8. All indications are he will have the 8 needed by the end of March, likely sooner.

It is hard to see where any other candidate picks up 8. Even in states where Trump is behind he may do well enough to prevent Ted or John from getting a delegate majority. And finding 8 states for either of them is tough right now.

(No I didn’t mention Marco in this discussion. He has yet to win any state, and isn’t leading anywhere that I can find, so his path to 8 looks all but impossible.)

... One last thought as I look across the delegate landscape:

The Magic 8 rule could actually prevent any other candidate’s name from being entered into nomination. This rule may end up dictating that the ONLY name on the first ballot is Trump. How’s that for irony?

[PJBankard]

Awesome.

[TMSuchman]

But rule 40[b] also says that the rnc chairman & central committee have final say so on who the nominee is, no matter on how many delegates they have. And that is the dirty little secret they do not want exposed.

[BobL]

Sounds like a reasonable analysis. I remember people thinking that the rule would stop Trump - but I also remembered in the past that many proportional states are still top-heavy (like SC). So, I didn’t see a problem for Trump.

Obviously they didn’t have Trump in mind when they set the rules for this year - but they did worry about Cruz or someone like him ‘causing trouble’ as they see it - oh well, as they say: Even the best laid plans...

[PAR35]

The establishment will change the rules if they have to. To preserve the intent of the rule (keep upstarts from messing with the controlled process), they modify the rules however they need to make sure an insider makes it to the floor.

[Las Vegas Ron]

for later

[Red Steel]

Come Wednesday, unless something changes dramatically, Trump could be the first, and thus far only, candidate to reach the magic 8. All indications are he will have the 8 needed by the end of March, likely sooner.

Yep. Trump will reach the magic 8 ball several times over getting the majority of delegates before this is all said and done.

[be-baw]

Outstanding information. You’ve answered a number of questions I’ve had. Thanks for posting.

[Utmost Certainty]

Cruz has been bought and may remain in the race to try and spoil it into a brokered convention, where Rubio will be anointed.

[DoughtyOne]

Do you realize Trump will have that 8 after Blooper Cruz-day?

[Qiviut]

If you have not read the article on this thread, you should.

Tripwire Alert - The RNC, GOPe, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie and Donald Trump (excellent read!)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3402560/posts

There’s discussion of the change to 8 states & this:

Excerpt:
Yesterday, four times -and most notably on the debate stage- RNC Head Reince Preibus said: “the candidates are applying to join the republican party and gain the benefit of the national party apparatus“. Think about this very carefully. The key takeaway is the RNC now saying all the candidates are outside the party, and the party will determine who leads it. The candidates are mere applicants to the group for the position of nominee.

The visibility of the message, along with the specificity of the message itself, is intended to set up the future events; ie the goals the RNC/GOPe are working toward. • A nominee chosen at a convention. • A nominee who might not even be on the stage. • An appointed nominee, because the party cannot accept its destruction at the hands of the actual electoral winner who they decide does not represent the party ideology.

[SaxxonWoods]

I read 4 territories like Guam and Puerto Rico are included in that 8 state count. I also read that Cruz has done a lot of work in all 4 and will likely win them.

I expect the party to change that rule just before the convention so this discussion may be moot anyway.

[DannyTN]

I’ve noticed that only 29 of Nevada’s 30 delegates have been allocated. Anyone know what the deal is with #30? That could make Nevada a qualifying state for Trump.

[DannyTN]

I’ve noticed that only 29 of Nevada’s 30 delegates have been allocated. Anyone know what the deal is with #30? That could make Nevada a qualifying state for Trump.

[bigbob]

It will be great if he can win the 8 states, but of course the rule was changed from 5 to 8 explicitly so an insurgent candidate like Trump could NOT be nominated. It will be sweet indeed if their plan backfires!

[pollyshy]

Maybe it’s my old age, but what exactly is a majority - 50% instead of a simple majority? It doesn’t seem clear in the rule...

[DoughtyOne]

Folks, if you're reading this, you know what needs to happen.
It doesn't take a big contribution. Pick your comfort level and
please join others to help put the FReepathon to rest. Thank you.

The above note was first presented to you on 02/25 at around 11:00.
The goal shortfall at that time is depicted to you on the left.
The graphic on the right reveals our status as of 02/26 22:30.
We can finish this by Sunday night. Let's do it.

Let's give Jim, his crew, and us a full month to rest up.

Jim, his crew, and every other FReeper thanks you.

[Hawthorn]

But what happens if, for example, Trump has a majority of delegates from only seven states?

Then nobody is nominated?

Or is the floor simply opened up for anybody to be nominated?

[Vermont Lt]

What you did not write is that rules committe meets the week before the convention and they will change the rules to their liking. The rule you discuss was put in place all they way back in 2012 to keep Ron Paul’s name out of nomination.

The beauty of the “party” is that they can make up the rules that they want. If you don’t think so, just wait until Hillary is indicted. You will see the DNC do cartwheels.

[TomGuy]

 

Date	State/	Calculated	Type	Allocation	Cumulative
	territory	delegates			Total
					1237 to Win
February 1, 2016	Iowa	30	Closed caucus	prop	30
February 9, 2016	New Hampshire	23	Modified primary	prop	53
February 20, 2016	South Carolina	50	Open primary	w-t-all	103
February 23, 2016	Nevada	30	Closed caucus	prop	133
March 1, 2016	Alabama	50	Open primary	hyb	183
	Alaska	28	Closed caucus	prop	211
	Arkansas	40	Open primary	hyb	251
	Georgia	76	Modified primary	hyb	327
	Massachusetts	42	Modified primary	prop	369
	Minnesota	38	Open caucus	prop	407
	Oklahoma	43	Closed primary	hyb	450
	Tennessee	58	Open primary	hyb	508
	Texas	155	Open primary	hyb	663
	Vermont	16	Open primary	hyb	679
	Virginia	49	Open primary	prop	728
	Wyoming	29	Closed caucus	unbound	757
March 5, 2016	Maine	23	Closed caucus		780
	Kansas	40	Closed caucus	prop	820
	Kentucky	45	Closed caucus	prop	865
	Louisiana	46	Closed primary	prop	911
March 8, 2016	Hawaii	19	Closed caucus	prop	930
	Idaho	32	Closed primary	hyb	962
	Mississippi	39	Open primary	prop	1001
	Michigan	59	Closed primary	prop	1060
March 12, 2016	District of Columbia	19	Closed caucus	hyb	1079
	Guam	9	Closed caucus		1088
March 13, 2016	Puerto Rico	23	Open primary		1111
March 15, 2016	Ohio	66	Modified primary	w-t-all	1177
	Florida	99	Closed primary	w-t-all	1276
	Illinois	69	Open primary	w-t-all	1345
	Missouri	52	Modified caucus	w-t-all	1397
	North Carolina	72	Modified primary	prop	1469
March 22, 2016	Arizona	58	Closed primary	prop	1527
	Utah	40	Modified primary	hyb	1567
April 5, 2016	Wisconsin	42	Open primary	w-t-all	1609
April 19, 2016	New York	95	Closed primary	hyb	1704
April 26, 2016	Connecticut	28	Closed primary	hyb	1732
	Delaware	16	Closed primary	w-t-all	1748
	Maryland	38	Closed primary	w-t-all	1786
	Pennsylvania	71	Closed primary	w-t-all	1857
	Rhode Island	19	Modified primary	prop	1876
May 3, 2016	Indiana	57	Open primary	w-t-all	1933
May 10, 2016	Nebraska	36	Semi-closed primary	w-t-all	1969
	West Virginia	34	Modified primary	hyb	2003
May 17, 2016	Oregon	28	Closed primary	prop	2031
May 24, 2016	Washington	44	Closed primary	prop	2075
June 7, 2016	California	172	Closed primary	w-t-all	2247
	Montana	27	Closed caucus	w-t-all	2274
	New Jersey	51	Modified primary	w-t-all	2325
	New Mexico	24	Closed primary	prop	2349
	South Dakota	29	Closed primary	w-t-all	2378
TBA	North Dakota	28	Closed caucus
TBA	Colorado	37	Closed caucus
TBA	American Samoa	9	Open caucus
TBA	Northern Marianas	9	Closed caucus	w-t-all
TBA	Virgin Islands	9	Closed caucus	w-t-all

 

prop = proportional

hyb = hybrid, a mixture of proportional and winner take most

w-t-all = winner take all

 

[scrabblehack]

Is this not symbolic?

Delegates may vote for anyone they wish (unless legally bound to vote for someone).

The last time it was an issue I think, was 1976 Democrat. Mo Udall had his name placed in nomination, then released his delegates.

The chairwoman first ruled that Mo had withdrawn, then after some boos from the Udall delegates, agreed that Udall’s name had been placed in nomination.

So far as I know, it is possible to secure the nomination (receive a majority vote of delegates) without having your name placed in nomination.