Posted on 02/27/2016 12:04:06 PM PST by BlueNgold
The topic of Rule 40 for the convention has come up a few times over the last several months, and I feel this rule is misunderstood. The rule in question in the one requiring 8 majority wins for a candidate to have their name entered into nomination. I call it the "Magic 8" rule.
Below please find my attempt to explain the rule simply, and also include some analysis of where the race stands now in terms of this requirement.
The critical language of Rule 40:
A candidate shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states before their name may be entered into nomination.
As we can see, the majority in question is delegates, not popular vote.
So let’s analyze:
Iowa, 30 delegates, Cruz winner, allotted 8, not a qualifying state.
New Hampshire, 23 delegates, Trump winner, allotted 11, not a qualifying state.
South Carolina, 50 delegates, Trump winner, allotted 50, SC is a qualifying win for Trump.
Nevada, 30 delegates, Trump winner, allotted 14, not a qualifying state.
Summary: Thus far Trump has 1 of the 8 required majority delegations. Cruz has 0 of 8. The three non-winners of course have 0 qualifying state delegations.
The Magic 8 is a count to watch on Tuesday to see if any candidate grabs a majority delegation. Indications are that Trump could gain at least 3 more qualifying states on Tuesday, possibly as many as 9. Delegates in many states are allocated by congressional district the way SC does it. TX is similar, so Ted could get on the board as well.
Come Wednesday, unless something changes dramatically, Trump could be the first, and thus far only, candidate to reach the magic 8. All indications are he will have the 8 needed by the end of March, likely sooner.
It is hard to see where any other candidate picks up 8. Even in states where Trump is behind he may do well enough to prevent Ted or John from getting a delegate majority. And finding 8 states for either of them is tough right now.
(No I didn’t mention Marco in this discussion. He has yet to win any state, and isn’t leading anywhere that I can find, so his path to 8 looks all but impossible.)
... One last thought as I look across the delegate landscape:
The Magic 8 rule could actually prevent any other candidate’s name from being entered into nomination. This rule may end up dictating that the ONLY name on the first ballot is Trump. How’s that for irony?
Awesome.
But rule 40[b] also says that the rnc chairman & central committee have final say so on who the nominee is, no matter on how many delegates they have. And that is the dirty little secret they do not want exposed.
Sounds like a reasonable analysis. I remember people thinking that the rule would stop Trump - but I also remembered in the past that many proportional states are still top-heavy (like SC). So, I didn’t see a problem for Trump.
Obviously they didn’t have Trump in mind when they set the rules for this year - but they did worry about Cruz or someone like him ‘causing trouble’ as they see it - oh well, as they say: Even the best laid plans...
The establishment will change the rules if they have to. To preserve the intent of the rule (keep upstarts from messing with the controlled process), they modify the rules however they need to make sure an insider makes it to the floor.
for later
Yep. Trump will reach the magic 8 ball several times over getting the majority of delegates before this is all said and done.
Outstanding information. You’ve answered a number of questions I’ve had. Thanks for posting.
Cruz has been bought and may remain in the race to try and spoil it into a brokered convention, where Rubio will be anointed.
“But rule 40[b] also says that the rnc chairman & central committee have final say so on who the nominee is, no matter on how many delegates they have. And that is the dirty little secret they do not want exposed.”
Doesn’t appear to be a concern, if Trump cleans up. If not, then I agree - and I will blame Cruz and/or Rubio for letting the GOPe ONCE AGAIN choose our candidate - in other words select Jeb or Romney.
Do you realize Trump will have that 8 after Blooper Cruz-day?
If Rinse your Prius wants to try that maneuver, he might as well don a suicide vest and detonate it.
Ka-BOOM.
Yes - from my original comments:
Come Wednesday, unless something changes dramatically, Trump could be the first, and thus far only, candidate to reach the magic 8. All indications are he will have the 8 needed by the end of March, likely sooner.
Bullshit.
Here is the text of 40(b) and no where in the rule does it state that the RNC chairman and central committee have final say. Stop spreading lies.
(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/prod-static-ngop-pbl/docs/Rules_of_the_Republican+Party_FINAL_S14090314.pdf
I’m not sure when he’ll get the last delegate to make him the nominee, but I suspect it won’t be all that far off.
Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination
If you have not read the article on this thread, you should.
Tripwire Alert - The RNC, GOPe, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie and Donald Trump (excellent read!)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3402560/posts
There’s discussion of the change to 8 states & this:
Excerpt:
Yesterday, four times -and most notably on the debate stage- RNC Head Reince Preibus said: “the candidates are applying to join the republican party and gain the benefit of the national party apparatus“. Think about this very carefully. The key takeaway is the RNC now saying all the candidates are outside the party, and the party will determine who leads it. The candidates are mere applicants to the group for the position of nominee.
The visibility of the message, along with the specificity of the message itself, is intended to set up the future events; ie the goals the RNC/GOPe are working toward. • A nominee chosen at a convention. • A nominee who might not even be on the stage. • An appointed nominee, because the party cannot accept its destruction at the hands of the actual electoral winner who they decide does not represent the party ideology.
I read 4 territories like Guam and Puerto Rico are included in that 8 state count. I also read that Cruz has done a lot of work in all 4 and will likely win them.
I expect the party to change that rule just before the convention so this discussion may be moot anyway.
This is so great . This will block any nominations but Trumps. Fantastic!!
Please quote the rule instead of paraphrasing it. A lot can get lost in paraphrasing.
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