Posted on 02/21/2016 10:45:10 AM PST by ripnbang
For months, Donald Trump's antagonists in rival campaigns, in the GOP establishment and in the punditocracy have believed the time would come, someday, when Trump would say something so outrageous, so over-the-top, so out there that the scales would finally fall from his supporters' eyes and the Trump candidacy would collapse. The South Carolina campaign, some believed, would be that time.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
Trump has a solid lock on 30 to 35% of the Republican voters. No matter what anyone (including Trump) says or does, those voters are not going to change their minds about Trump.
Trump’s problem is that the remaining 65 to 70% of Republican voters really do not like Trump and are not changing their minds about Trump either.
In New Hampshire, Trump won 35.3% of the vote. Cruz and Rubio won only 22.3% combined (11.7% for Cruz and 10.6% for Rubio). In South Carolina, Trump won 32.5% of the vote. Cruz and Rubio won 48.5% combined (22.3% for Cruz and 22.5% for Rubio). So as other candidates have dropped out, their voters have consolidated behind Cruz and Rubio, not Trump.
Looking at a broader historical trend, in 2008, from the day of the Iowa caucuses to the day of the South Carolina primary, McCain’s poll numbers went up 10%. In 2012, from Iowa to South Carolina, Romney’s poll numbers went up 8.5%. During the same period, Trump’s poll numbers went down 1.5%. Trump is clearly not building any momentum.
OTOH, Cruz’s and Rubio’s problem is that the 65 to 70% of Republican voters who do not like Trump are split between them and other candidates. Even as the other candidates drop out and their voters consolidate between Cruz and Rubio (which is what happened from New Hampshire to South Carolina) as long as Cruz and Rubio stay evenly matched, neither can ever beat Trump’s 35%.
So unless either Cruz or Rubio drops out or significantly overtakes the other, Trump will continue to win primaries and could well win the nomination, even with a substantial majority of Republicans voting against him every step of the way.
Steefish, I think Y-O-U are the impervious one.
Trump is the only candidate poised to defeat Hillary.
If you don't realize it, you must be for Hillary.
Wonder what this means for the future of Tim Scott and Trey Gowdy?
Good analysis.
Thank you so much. I am just a naturalized US citizen who loves United States of America.
I love Trump’s ‘gaffes’
He talks and thinks like most real American men do
The end of the Democrap p/c era is at hand
If Rubio wins nomination, Nikki & Trey will be flying high. Otherwise just a wind movement.
It isn’t like there is some big, dark secret the voters have been trying to hide. They’ve been pretty outspoken about what they want. It’s that the Republican establishment has chosen to ignore them.
The Republican establishment seems to think voters want socialism, but implemented more gently and slowly than Democrats have been implementing it. That is completely untrue. We do not want socialism at all.
Trump hears us. The GOP does not.
beware of politicians who talk thru their grinning closed front teeth , it’s a sure sign of sleaze
Now some might think that is a bad thing. But it does underscore the real anger out there that exists with regard to our traditional "all talk and no action" politicians.
Many conservatives feel betrayed and that's why even the evangelicals in South Carolina rejected Ted Cruz last night in favor of Trump. Yes, on paper, Ted Cruz is a better conservative. But he has not really achieved anything during his time in the senate. I think only one bill of his actually became law and that was a relatively uncontested bill that prohibited the United Nations from sending ambassadors to the U.S. the represented a security threat. That might be unfair as he's only in his first term. But then, why is he running for president then? Why not build himself a record of accomplishment first? He's only 44 years old after all.
Ted Cruz definitely has the conservative bona fides and can talk a good game but has no accomplishment to go with it. Many Americans are sick and tired of ambitious lawyer/politicians who seem only concerned with climbing the political ladder and do not seem concerned with actually doing what they promise to do.
Everything is a "stepping stone" for these guys. Marco Rubio, he's basically an absentee senator and has admitted in the past he doesn't really like the job. His only reason for becoming senator was so that he could run for president. And virtually the day Ted Cruz won the senate election in 2012, he set his sights on the 2016 presidential run. Ditto for the Democrat side. Shrillary ran for senator of NY (a state where she didn't even live) only so that she could set herself up for a presidential run. Ditto for Obama. The senate seat in Illinois was merely a stepping stone to something bigger. His "hope and change" amounted to nothing. African-Americans are worse off now then they were eight years ago.
So Donald Trump is not perfect but at least he's not a lawyer/politician who is obsessed with the career path of becoming president. Should he be defeated in his attempt to get elected, he has a thriving business to go back to that he built himself. Should he be elected, he has every intention of doing what he says he will do, as achievement and success has been the hallmark of his long and successful life in the private sector.
Finally, we have a chance to elect somebody who might actually get something done.
Exactly. We know what to expect from the democraps, the GOPe, the media, the illegals, ISIS. Do I know what I’m going to get from Trump? Maybe not, but he’s the only one who even brought up the issues. I’m sick of political correctness and being called a racist for merely expecting the government to enforce the existing laws that they themselves passed.
Great post in a very good thread. BTTT!
So after looking at March 1st and another series of Trump wins, where do the remaining contests come down? Most of the races March 15 and after are winner take all.
Of the March 8th states, Michigan has Trump up by 10 and Idaho Trump up by 12. There is no recent polling on HI and MS or DC.
So what about those March 15th and after?
Florida Trump up by 7 to 19,
Illinois Trump +20,
MO Trump +12,
NC Trump +18,
Ohio Trump +5,
AZ Trump +23,
Wisc Trump +6,
NY Trump +18,
CT Trump +10,
MD Trump +16,
PA Trump +10,
WV Trump +21,
NJ Trump +16.
CA Cruz +1 (within margin of error).
“Evangelicals toss their principles”
You mean like Franklin Graham? I have a news flash for you, we are all sinners.
One vote out of a hundred and it's his fault he couldn't get bills past the Democrats and the GOPee RINOs and the magic negro?
Are you serious?
What a stupid, lame assed attack on a man who has been a voice in the wilderness of DC for Conservative causes.
You'd trade him for a pig in a poke and deserve what you get.
Many a foolish decision has been made in anger, but few of this magnitude.
1) What gaffes?
2) What’s a gaffe compared to correctly identifying the biggest issues facing America and having a plan and the experience and skills to fix them?
It exposes them IMHO as GOPe
No one with experience and skills comparable to Trump.
No one with experience running large organizations.
No one with experience operating to a budget.
No one with foreign policy experience.
No one with sufficient management experience.
No one with economic vision.
Excellent post. It is great to see the moderate squishes of the GOP (like traitor Nilki and limpsey graham) eat Shiite and die.
Trump understands that what makes something a “gaff”, is the person’s response to the media about it.
Trump doesn’t care. He shrugs it off. He’ll call any reporter who brings it up an idiot with nothing better to do, and end the interview.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.