Posted on 02/21/2016 12:18:59 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
LAS VEGAS - It's going to be a long ride.
Rather than anointing a presumptive nominee, the early voting states have narrowed the Republican primary to a three-man race heading into Tuesday's Nevada Caucuses and the 12-state delegate bonanza on March 1.
Donald Trump leads nationally and in most state polls, but both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are armed with the rationales and the resources to stay in the race through at least March, if not right up to the Republican National Convention in July.
Despite Trump's polling lead, there are significant obstacles to his running away with the nomination in the coming weeks. With Rubio buoyed by momentum, Nevada's organizing-heavy caucuses set for Tuesday, and the first half of March weighted toward states where Cruz is poised to finish strongly, there is little space for Trump to translate that lead into a certain nomination in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, Rubio's strength makes him the likely standard-bearer of center-right Republicans and their deep-pocketed backers and can only increase the pressure for Jeb Bush to bow out of the race - freeing resources for the Florida senator and cleaning up a cluttered field before the real action begins.
"Until it clears out, it's an advantage for Trump," said one person close to the New York billionaire.
The results so far have only been a prelude. Including South Carolina, only 4 percent of delegates have been awarded up to this point, and Trump has won only a plurality. Heading into Saturday, Trump had won 17 of the 53 delegates awarded in Iowa and New Hampshire, less than a third. Cruz had won 11 and Rubio 10.
On paper, the next three weeks of contests favor Cruz, a feature of the schedule that will prevent Rubio from totally capitalizing on any momentum he gains coming out of South Carolina.
Tuesday's caucuses in Nevada will be only a blip - bringing the delegates awarded to 5 percent of the total - but one that could deprive Trump of momentum if he is out-organized here as he was in the first caucus state, Iowa.
"Nevada is basically a wash. Nobody will care about it unless Trump doesn't win," said a Trump campaign insider.
On March 1, 12 states with a combined total of 588 delegates - nearly a third of the total - will get their turn. Delegate totals on that day are titled heavily towards the six Southern states, where Cruz and the outside groups supporting him are better organized than their rivals. That includes March 1's biggest prize, Cruz's home state of Texas, which awards 152 delegates. Kansas, Kentucky and Louisiana, three Cruz-friendly states with a combined 132 delegates to award, will vote four days later on March 5.
Winner-take-all states do not begin voting until March 15.
Despite favorable conditions in South Carolina - his campaign's director there is a former majority leader of the state's House of Representatives and for much of the race he enjoyed 20-point polling leads there - Trump did not achieve the blowout victory that he did in New Hampshire.
Trump also under-performed in Iowa, the only caucus state to have voted so far.
Winner-take-all states do not begin voting until March 15, by which point more than 40 percent of delegates will have already been awarded. Both Ohio, with its 63 delegates and Florida with its 99 will vote that day - and the prospect of John Kasich hanging in long enough to capture his home state will only further muddle the delegate math.
Deeper into the map, major prizes like 95-delegate New York, which votes on April 19, and 172-delegate California, which votes on the last day of primary contests on June 7, will award delegates by congressional district.
This is the REAL Donald Trump, and I’m not talking about his Twitter name.
“Donald Trump Financed The Gang of 8”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3401279/posts
I don’t have time for Cruz’s BS as he has been a weirdo all his life. He and Rubio are both first term senators and we’ve got one WH now.
So you would prefer a George Soros type of businessman to a PROVEN CONSERVATIVE record which Cruz has?
Here’s more on Trump:
“We are not talking about positions he has taken years ago before he became a Republican. In 2013, conservatives were fighting for dear life to oppose open borders, while Trump was not only supporting the Dream Act, but echoing the liberal politically correct talking points behind it. In August of 2013, he reportedly told a group of illegal aliens, “You have convinced me†of the need to pass the Dream Act.”
more: https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/01/trumps-questionable-political-history
Crus has become a serious illness for you.
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