Posted on 01/26/2016 8:57:56 AM PST by jimbo123
Good morning from Iowa, where premium gasoline is $1.67 a gallon at Git-n-Go, and where a warming trend has arrived, which could last through the caucuses six days from now, favoring a strong turnout.
There are mounting signs these caucuses may go into the record books for turnout, at least on the Republican side. Tami Jorgensen, who works for the auditor of the predominantly conservative Warren County, told me she was astonished at how many people had called asking for the location of their precinct's caucuses.
-snip-
Where's Jeb Bush?
You know who is not here? Jeb Bush, who has all but abandoned Iowa for a New Hampshire-or-bust strategy. Mr. Bush has spent just two days in Iowa this month. But the "super PAC" supporting him, Right to Rise, continues to drop heavy ordnance on Senator Marco Rubio of Florida in TV ads and on Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey and Gov. John R. Kasich of Ohio in mailings.
The circular firing squad among establishment-leaning Republicans baffles some strategists.
"If Right to Rise spent $50 million contrasting Jeb Bush and Donald Trump, this race would be very different," said Stuart Stevens, who was Mitt Romney's top strategist in 2012 and whose consulting firm is advising Mr. Christie, although he is not directly involved in the campaign.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
A big turnout would be favorable to Trump, from what I’ve heard and read.
Pat Cadell, Carter’s pollster and many others, agrees.
Pat’s model say 120,000 Cruz wins if 140,000 or more people go and caucus Trump wins.
For sure its going to be more than 120,000, likely over 140,000.
I hope over 200,000 vote.
The more the better! The political class likes low voter turnout and apathy.
He's the only candidate generating any excitement. Sure, Cruz has been nipping at his heels but nobody is excited over Ted Cruz.
Yes, a large turnout and Trump wins and then runs the table everywhere else.
Any predictions on caucus shenanigans? I can just imagine a caucus precinct with a capacity of say 50 and all a sudden 500 show up. Who gets to caucus? How many caucus goers will be misdirected to the wrong caucus or how many won’t meet identification standards?
What happens if one candidate zergs the caucuses?
Rush just played a clip of Cruz saying that if Trump wins IA there is no stopping him, and he’s the only one left who can stop Trump.
This has to be a killer blow to GOPe, who on Twitter are still doing unicorn politics wondering how one of the GOPe can still win.
I would bet Karl Rove and Haley Barbour have their paid caucus disrupters already in place.
I am disappointed in Joni Ernst. Some Tea Party animal, going with the Wetback King Rubio.
From your pen to God’s ears! Go Trump! Make America Great Again! It is almost too late, but only Donald Trump has the know-how, courage, name recognition, and freedom from rich donors to accomplish that gargantuan task.
I am disappointed, buy not at all SURPRISED.
None of the 99 senators have endorsed Cruz. So why do you think Ernst would go against that mob?
Are you saying GOPe will suddenly start taking advice from senator Cruz? What is the last time they did that?
Spot on!!
Exactly! Let the roar of the people be heard!
Wow! I hope you’re right! I want Trump to win! I just hope they turn out for him in Iowa! It’s going to be a nail biter!
Won’t/Can’t happen. The caucuses are very tightly run by multiple campaigns.
Plus if it happened, Iowa as the first in the nation would end.
Steve Deace says Iowa R party is expecting upwards of 300,000 or more on Caucus night. Hope he’s right.
If that happened it will be proving that “We the People and “For the People” are totally FED up with the DC Establishment, that has screwed us for years past. Saying it the Trump way. NOUGH is enough !!!
Here are some numbers:
Total Iowa Registered Republicans as of 1/14/16 = 1,046,955
- per Iowa Secretary of State website
(In 2012, 121,255 was the total Republican caucus total)
These are the possible turnout results for 2016:
If 120,000 turn out, that = 11.4% turnout
If 140,000 turn out, that = 13.3%
If 160,000 turn out, that = 15.2%
If 180,000 turn out, that = 17.1%
If 200,000 turn out, that = 19.1%
It would not be a surprise if close to 200,000 were to turn out this year, still below 20% total registered Republicans, not counting how many party-switchers will caucus on Monday evening.
Could be YUGE!
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