A big turnout would be favorable to Trump, from what I’ve heard and read.
Pat Cadell, Carter’s pollster and many others, agrees.
Pat’s model say 120,000 Cruz wins if 140,000 or more people go and caucus Trump wins.
For sure its going to be more than 120,000, likely over 140,000.
I hope over 200,000 vote.
The more the better! The political class likes low voter turnout and apathy.
Steve Deace says Iowa R party is expecting upwards of 300,000 or more on Caucus night. Hope he’s right.
Here are some numbers:
Total Iowa Registered Republicans as of 1/14/16 = 1,046,955
- per Iowa Secretary of State website
(In 2012, 121,255 was the total Republican caucus total)
These are the possible turnout results for 2016:
If 120,000 turn out, that = 11.4% turnout
If 140,000 turn out, that = 13.3%
If 160,000 turn out, that = 15.2%
If 180,000 turn out, that = 17.1%
If 200,000 turn out, that = 19.1%
It would not be a surprise if close to 200,000 were to turn out this year, still below 20% total registered Republicans, not counting how many party-switchers will caucus on Monday evening.
Could be YUGE!