Posted on 01/26/2016 4:14:53 AM PST by usafa92
The Iowa Republican Caucus is a two-man race going down to the wire with Donald Trump at 31 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 29 percent among likely Republican Caucus participants, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is at 13 percent, with no other candidate above 7 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at quinnipiac.edu ...
That's his style, for sure. Although I'm sure he can bluff exceedingly well, this situation does not call for a bluff. Too many people watching, for too long.
If the wide eyed people of Iowa actually prefer a stiff like Cruz, this speaks volumes for them.
The polls are meaningless. Trump will bus in (tens of) thousands of people from out of state to vote.
A few thousand in Des Moines and Iowa city would likely be enough
That leaves 40% up for grabs. In a caucus, votes migrate to one of the major players. IMHO, there are only two major players, so those votes will move to Trump or Cruz.
Picture if you will, the threads here on FR occurring in an open room with ~30% Trump people, ~30% Cruz, and ~40% needing to move to one of them by the end of the night. Caucus goers more closely follow politics than normal primary voters.
I don’t want to start a stink fest with the Trump folks, but I don’t think the caucus open discussion format will lend itself to Trump. I don’t think Trump is the second choice of most non-Trump voters, with the ironic exception of Cruz supporters. My prediction is that the minor player votes will split roughly 2 to 1 for Cruz.
That might or might not help Cruz in NH.
The Iowa caucus presidential preference vote is no longer an actual caucus format. It’s now really a primary vote that binds delegate votes, followed by the traditional neighborhood GOP meeting.
That is not a prediction, that is an estimate of your state of knowledge, which equals the state of knowledge of all of us.
I am willing to make a prediction: Trump will win in Iowa by a margin that will be reported as larger than expected.
You're right about that. If all the dwarfs can manage is to hurt Trump they'll move straight to the Cruz camp. That's exactly why I say Cruz needs a substantial victory or it's as good as a loss.
Anything less would mean many of those now saying they're voting for one of the little guys see Trump as their second choice and aren't interested in playing the game of doing whatever they can to hurt Trump whether their leaders say that's what to do or not.
Does data always anger you? I found it to be the type of information that is normal on a discussion forum, even desired.
Have another cup of coffee, Freepers are not the enemy.
Thanks.
Wow that’s close.
“Stealth” and “Trump” is a contradiction in terms.
But "stealth" and "ground game" is not.
Hmmm...wonder why Trump leads among “Moderate” and “Liberal” Repubs?
Cruz leads among Christians, Conservatives.
None of the Conservative Trumpers at FR could figure that out.
Then there is the question of how many people there are in each of this groups...
So true!
I wonder how you can get away on Free Republic by calling us that vile name.
Phyllis Schlafly is as Christian and as Conservative as one can get.
She wouldn’t let a weasel on FR get under her skin. Neither should we.
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