That leaves 40% up for grabs. In a caucus, votes migrate to one of the major players. IMHO, there are only two major players, so those votes will move to Trump or Cruz.
Picture if you will, the threads here on FR occurring in an open room with ~30% Trump people, ~30% Cruz, and ~40% needing to move to one of them by the end of the night. Caucus goers more closely follow politics than normal primary voters.
I don’t want to start a stink fest with the Trump folks, but I don’t think the caucus open discussion format will lend itself to Trump. I don’t think Trump is the second choice of most non-Trump voters, with the ironic exception of Cruz supporters. My prediction is that the minor player votes will split roughly 2 to 1 for Cruz.
That might or might not help Cruz in NH.
The Iowa caucus presidential preference vote is no longer an actual caucus format. It’s now really a primary vote that binds delegate votes, followed by the traditional neighborhood GOP meeting.
You're right about that. If all the dwarfs can manage is to hurt Trump they'll move straight to the Cruz camp. That's exactly why I say Cruz needs a substantial victory or it's as good as a loss.
Anything less would mean many of those now saying they're voting for one of the little guys see Trump as their second choice and aren't interested in playing the game of doing whatever they can to hurt Trump whether their leaders say that's what to do or not.