Trump Holds Lead in South Carolina; Cruz in Second as Bush Moves Up to Third In Contest

southernpoliticalreport.com ^ | Jan 17, 2016 | admin

[GonzoII]

Trump Holds Lead in South Carolina; Cruz in Second as Bush Moves Up to Third In Contest

by admin Jan 17, 2016 Top Story

A post-debate poll of likely voters in South Carolina's GOP presidential primary conducted by OpinionSavvy for the Morris News Service/InsiderAdvantage shows Donald Trump continuing to dominate the contest, leading his closest opponent, Ted Cruz, by some 14 points. Jeb Bush has moved into third place, just 4 points behind Cruz. The survey was conducted January 15th by both IVR phone and mobile devices. The poll has a margin of error of 3.7%. The survey also shows that South Carolinians believe Trump won the debate held in North Charleston by a wide margin. 37% of the respondents who watched the debate declared Trump the winner with Ted Cruz coming in second at 22%.

When asked who they would vote for if the primary were held today, likely voters responded:

Trump: 32%

Cruz: 18%

Bush: 13%

Rubio: 11%

Carson: 9%

Christie: 4%

Fiorina: 3%

Huckabee: 2%

Kasich: 2%

Paul: 2%

Santorum: 1%

Undecided: 3%

Analysis by InsiderAdvantage founder/Opinion Savvy analyst Matt Towery:

"Trump leads in the poll among respondents who describe themselves as 'very conservative' but by only six points over Cruz. But Trump's lead over Cruz widens among those who say they are 'somewhat conservative'– he receives 33% versus 15% for Cruz and Bush. Trump led among those who said they were moderate but with Bush and Rubio receiving solid second place percentages. Trump led among all age groups but does better with the youngest of voters (40%).

"The poll confirms that Donald Trump is the force to be reckoned with in South Carolina. He has led in our prior surveys and his lead expanded a bit after the debate. Cruz, as expected, is giving Trump his closest challenge– albeit a somewhat distant one at the moment.

"Most interesting was Jeb Bush's leap to third place in the South Carolina contest. It has been my belief that one "establishment" Republican will survive to take on Trump and Cruz in South Carolina. Bush's lead over Marco Rubio is tenuous but it is nevertheless a lead. It may be the first glimpse of some momentum for the Bush camp. South Carolina has shown its willingness to go for the more "establishment" type candidate in some contests (McCain over Huckabee in 2008) but in recent years has grown far more inclined to support the more "populist conservative" type such as Newt Gingrich in 2012.

"As for the debate, Trump scored big with viewers in South Carolina leading his closest opponent, Cruz, by 14 points. When asked who performed the worst, Bush took 'the prize' with 27% and John Kasich receiving a dubious second place 17% for worst performance."

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

‘Now it’s out there that Cruz’s mother voted in Canada, which is an acceptance of citizenship there.’

Last I heard Breitbart’s article was ‘drive-by’, debunked. Is this a recent update? Do you have a link?

[StAnDeliver]

"Bush gaining gives me pause... I heard he's setting up SC as his fire-wall state and putting a ton of effort there."

The thing is, it's usually the firewall state for the front-runner, ie it's dropout time for the also-rans.

So could just as easily be The Quisling Prince's Waterloo: "Hey, I'm 3rd guys! In a primary state both Pappy and GW won twice! Don't you love me now?"

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

I really don’t like that news. Not sure I trust such weird support for Jeb, but assuming it’s correct ...

Cruz needs to deliver a knock-out blow on his eligibility.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

I’m very skeptical. For example, Rubio. He’s not in my ‘top two’, but he’s TEN times better than Jeb, isn’t he? And people are sick of seeing the Bush/Clinton names in the White House — too much like royal dynasties.

[GonzoII]

"[Really?]"

I hear the Bush family has a lot of friends in SC?

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

If Jeb is growing that quickly in S.C. [presumably through Lindsey Gramnesty’s endorsement], then he would overtake Cruz and possibly even Trump there.

I could imagine that ‘New York Values’ might have resonated in S.C. But that state is weird too, isn’t it? The ever-electable Lindsey Gramnesty, an acquired taste of the locals there. [Shrugging.]

[xzins]

Yep. The establishment will egg on conservatives to form a circular firing squad and kill each other off again. It works for them every time. Trump and Cruz supporters will see each other as the enemy and destroy chances for the real enemy, the establishment, to be defeated.

But we’re stupid like that.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

Newspaper friends you mean? I have had trouble understanding that state for some time now.

[brothers4thID]

Reuters doesn’t have the excellent track record that the Des Moines register poll does.

[xzins]

Yep. Me to.

[xzins]

I see 33% going to the establishment if they call on the candidates to consolidate. In the meantime trump and Cruz supporters are killing each other off.

[StAnDeliver]

I lean on the idea that Gingrich won SC last time, as a conservative populist. It's not the same state when the Bush's won, although their desire to 'back a winner' maintains.

Lindsey could have been primaried in 2014, that should have been a top job for any national Tea Party movement. But it's an insular state, a lot like Arizona and Colorado - they don't take kindly to people who don't take kindly.

If Bush were to run 2nd behind Trump, wow then it's on like Donkey Kong in FL and Super Tuesday.

[fone]

In the meantime trump and Cruz supporters are killing each other off.

Divide and conquer.

FWIW William (B.J.) Clinton was only 3% in the polls in February 1992. Just sayin.

[Forward the Light Brigade]

IF Trump can take Iowa and New Hampshire the numbers will change. But, I believe that 1. Iowa will go Cruz, with Trump number 2. New Hampshire go Christie with Trump #2. Sounth Carolina Trump # 1, Cruz #2, Nevada, Trump #1 Cruze Number 2. Lets see if I’m right.

[toddausauras]

I’m surprised by this Bush surge. I would have thought Christie would move up or Rubio not Bush.

[ScottWalkerForPresident2016]

Cruz is just as close to Christie as he is Trump here.

Some viable opposition to Trump.

[xzins]

Iowa close to a tie. They’ll split delegates.

Trump wins NH

Trump wins SC
Trump wins NV

It’s what the numbers say.

[ScottWalkerForPresident2016]

Jeb Bush is now third here, and is now third in the Reuters national rolling average. Cruz is declining there too. It looks like Bush will soon be the main not-Trump, number-two-overall-nationally candidate in the race.

I find it funny the headline says "holds lead", as if a 14-point lead is close.

[ScottWalkerForPresident2016]

New Hampshire go Christie with Trump #2.
Lets see if I’m right.

You definitely won't be here. Your other predictions are within the realm of reason as of January 17, 2016, but not this one.

I still think Trump's going to win Iowa, New Hampshire, etc.

[jmaroneps37]

It looks like “Surging Ted” should start looking over his shoulder at Yeb. Isn’t it funny how real people didn’t think as much about the comments made by those on the stage as the media pundits told them to?