Public Policy Polling Iowa GOP results (Trump 28%, Cruz 26%)

Scribd ^ | January 12, 2015 | Brett LoGiurato

[Red Steel]

Public Policy Polling Iowa GOP results

Trump 28%

Cruz 26%

Rubio 13%

Carson 8%

Bush 6%

Paul 3%

Christie 3%

Huckabee 3%

Santorum 2%

...

January 8-10, 2016

Survey of 530 likely Republican caucus voters

[TBP]

Other polls still show Cruz up. It should be close.

[Marie]

Cruz *has* to win Iowa. For Trump, it would be nice.

[lexington minuteman 1775]

So quinipeac, the ARG, and now PPP polls show Trump with slight lead in Iowa...this cant be good for the Cruz camp...
Freegards
LEX

[Marcella]

“Cruz *has* to win Iowa. For Trump, it would be nice.”

No, it is fine if Cruz comes in second in Iowa. I believe the one he has to win is South Carolina. It would be hard to recover if he loses South Carolina.

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

Cruz *has* to win Iowa. For Trump, it would be nice.

In a way, you're right. If he loses IA he loses SC. If he wins IA, he has a good shot at SC.

OTOH, Carson, Huck, Santorum and Paul should be gone after SC. So Cruz should pick up about 10 points nationally.

And don't forget. Two debates to go before IA.

[jobim]

Don't you think you should withhold this information? Those in the CruZone are liable to
seek out that devilhead machine that tells the future, like in that episode with a very
young William Shatner. They could spend days and weeks feeding pennies into it trying
to come up with the answer they are looking for.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

This is not the poll you've been waiting for. :)

[JPG]

--Those in the CruZone are liable to seek out that devilhead machine that tells the future, like in that episode with a very young William Shatner.

Will Trump or Cruz win?

YES!

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

4 recent polls released over past 2 days. 3 with Trump leading by 2 to 4 points, and one with Trump and Cruz tied.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

And the NBC stuff hasn’t really had a chance to marinate. I’d look for Cruz’ numbers to drop another 2-4 points next week when that’s fully baked in. In my experience, such things take about 2 weeks to filter through.

[lewislynn]

OTOH, Carson, Huck, Santorum and Paul should be gone after SC. So Cruz should pick up about 10 points nationally.

Like the grandson waiting for grandpa to die so he can get all of grandpa's stuff without working for it. That's been the Cruz strategy all along.

[PJBankard]

New Poll Released

Donald Trump 2016 Ping List

FReepMail me if you want to be added or removed from this list.

[tennmountainman]

Trump has gained a few points.
Cruz has stalled.

Should be an interesting finish.

[trisham]

Thanks for the ping!

[paintriot]

I bet Trumps number is higher than that. According to what I have heard, there are some that are closet Trump supporters. I doubt it swings the other way.

[Lagmeister]

Paul is a libertarian, so those votes(about 4% consistently) should not go to Cruz. Huck and Santorum have no support to transfer. Carson’s appeal is that he is not a politician while Cruz already has his percentage of the social conservative vote.

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

Like the grandson waiting for grandpa to die so he can get all of grandpa's stuff without working for it. That's been the Cruz strategy all along.

Yeah. It's not that at all.

Trump has simply had the populist category to himself.

This is what's happening:

There are four categories of Republican voters:

Libertarian: Paul
Populist: Trump
Conservative: Cruz, Carson, Huckabee, Santorum
Establishment: Rubio, Bush, Kasich, Christie, Fiorina.

Trump created the new category of 'populist," of which he is the sole member. It seems to comprise about 35% of the party. The Establishment category accounts for 20%. Libertarian 5%. Conservative 40%.

The race will be very competitive between Trump and Cruz when the race comes down to Rubio, Cruz and Trump.

Additionally, Cruz will be able to draw from the other categories more than Trump, since by ridiculing his opponents, Trump has alienated the supporters of other candidates.

That's why Cruz crushes Trump in the category of voters' second choice.

Cruz is a better strategist than Trump, as well as being a better conservative.

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

Paul is a libertarian, so those votes(about 4% consistently) should not go to Cruz.

Of Trump, Rubio and Cruz, Cruz is the likely beneficiary.

[jobim]

Oh, you are a consummate researcher. I wonder if those cheeseburgers
are still 37 cents? But yes, that is the very machine.

But Mr. Devilhead didn't simply say yes or no. He answered in a way that threw the
question back on you. So you need to rephrase it as a traveler in the CruZone might:

Although Trump is packing arenas like the Rolling Stones, and every poll has him
leading now for 6 months, does this mean that he might win the nomination?

To which Mr. DH might answer:

The answer is obvious.