In a way, you're right. If he loses IA he loses SC. If he wins IA, he has a good shot at SC.
OTOH, Carson, Huck, Santorum and Paul should be gone after SC. So Cruz should pick up about 10 points nationally.
And don't forget. Two debates to go before IA.
OTOH, Carson, Huck, Santorum and Paul should be gone after SC. So Cruz should pick up about 10 points nationally.Like the grandson waiting for grandpa to die so he can get all of grandpa's stuff without working for it. That's been the Cruz strategy all along.
Paul is a libertarian, so those votes(about 4% consistently) should not go to Cruz. Huck and Santorum have no support to transfer. Carson’s appeal is that he is not a politician while Cruz already has his percentage of the social conservative vote.
Debates won’t do much, at this point. This pretty much has been a Trump/Cruz race for the better part of a month. If Cruz doesn’t have Huckabee’s and Santorum’s supporters by now,it’s not guaranteed they immediately go to him, in my opinion. If it looks like Trump is going to run the table, they may very well just go to him, so I’m not sure about that 10%...could be a split or some other #.