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NY Times: How Donald Trump Could Win, and Why He Probably Won’t
New York Times ^ | 12/15/2015 | Nate Cohn

Posted on 12/15/2015 8:04:54 PM PST by SeekAndFind

Despite controversy after controversy, Donald Trump still dominates the polls. With his seemingly impervious lead, it is tempting to declare that he is a clear front-runner for the nomination. From Our Advertisers

He has, after all, defied all expectations of his impending demise, including an early one from this author. If he has survived everything so far, why should he lose now?

Mr. Trump has emerged as a true factional candidate -- much more like Howard Dean or Pat Buchanan than Herman Cain, or other candidates who have surged to the top of the polls only to collapse.

But it's still too soon to say Mr. Trump is the front-runner for the nomination. He has a high floor but a low ceiling, and although he has weathered many controversies, the toughest days are yet to come. Continue reading the main story

The polls already show initial signs of those challenges, like Ted Cruz's lead in Iowa; the number of Republicans who say they would not support him; his weakness in polls of verified voters; and his smaller or nonexistent leads in one-on-one matchups against likely rivals.

His chances of winning -- which are real, even if not good -- depend much more on the weaknesses of his opponents than his own strengths. The good news for Mr. Trump is that the opposition is flawed enough to entertain such an outcome.

The notion that Mr. Trump should be considered a strong front-runner based on current polls is understandable, but inconsistent with recent history. In nearly every election cycle, there are candidates who lead national polls and sometimes even win states, but don’t come close to winning the nomination.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016; elections; immigration; slimes; trump; trumpiswrong; trumpwasright; wronginsomanyways
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1 posted on 12/15/2015 8:04:54 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Probably won’t reason 432,518b


2 posted on 12/15/2015 8:06:26 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Man the sour grapes are strong with the Crewz...)
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To: DoughtyOne

Smell the fear...

L


3 posted on 12/15/2015 8:07:26 PM PST by Lurker (Violence is rarely the answer. But when it is it is the only answer.)
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To: DoughtyOne

Nah I think it’s reason 432,519c.


4 posted on 12/15/2015 8:07:26 PM PST by Red Steel (Ted Cruz: 'I'm a Big Fan of Donald Trump')
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To: SeekAndFind

Fear and desperation. I love watching the America-hating, commie lib DemocRATS squirm.


5 posted on 12/15/2015 8:08:55 PM PST by FlingWingFlyer (Have you unpacked from your white privilege guilt trip yet?)
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To: SeekAndFind

The odds are actually rather high that just anyone the GOP nominates will win the general election. Here’s why: http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/editorials/2015/11/13/the-two-things-you-need-know-predict-general-election-winner/8BjYfnwf1NIfTpos5aAaRL/story.html;


6 posted on 12/15/2015 8:09:33 PM PST by sourcery (Without the right to self defense, there can be no rights at all.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Queue the Not this $#it again guy.


7 posted on 12/15/2015 8:09:40 PM PST by Jane Long (Go Trump, go! Make America Safe Again :)
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To: SeekAndFind

We are doing to them with Trump what they did to us with Obola.

Paybacks are a female dog.


8 posted on 12/15/2015 8:09:50 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum ("We are not a nation of immigrants. We are a nation of citizens." -- Mark Levin)
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To: Red Steel

Ooooookaaaaaaay...

Harumph.

“:^)


9 posted on 12/15/2015 8:10:01 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Man the sour grapes are strong with the Crewz...)
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To: Lurker

Smelt and dealt...

= :^)


10 posted on 12/15/2015 8:10:27 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Man the sour grapes are strong with the Crewz...)
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To: SeekAndFind

Honestly, how is it this paper is still in business? Who reads this crap?


11 posted on 12/15/2015 8:10:35 PM PST by JoSixChip
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To: SeekAndFind

12 posted on 12/15/2015 8:10:49 PM PST by Helicondelta
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To: SeekAndFind

There’s the high floor, low ceiling being used again. Well, that ceiling has now risen to between 38 and 41. There is still 7 weeks to go before Iowa, and there is no telling how high his numbers might get. He could be at 50 percent by then. Anyone counting on him crashing and burning at this point is just engaging in wishful thinking. He’s survived a total media onslaught like we haven’t seen since 2008 against Palin.


13 posted on 12/15/2015 8:11:12 PM PST by euram
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To: SeekAndFind

Here’s a little hint.

The NYT is owned by Carlos Slim Helu, the richest man on the planet, who is....Mexican (!).

His stake was 250 mil. Doubt if it has gone higher, the Slimes is a crap business. But, Trump could simply buy out Slim. It’s not a big number and after all, he could take the investment and actually turn it into something, instead of being a mouthpiece for aging socialists and Mexican Reconquistadores.

And that would be that.

Do we really need to listen to Mexican propaganda as if it’s “objective” news and opinion?

Trump doesn’t. And he can do something about it.


14 posted on 12/15/2015 8:12:25 PM PST by Regulator
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To: pocat
 photo 8ab0553c-1060-4eed-a68a-1effc6ff4a37_zps0lhfys01.jpg
15 posted on 12/15/2015 8:13:44 PM PST by timestax (American Media = Domestic Enemy)
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To: SeekAndFind

16 posted on 12/15/2015 8:14:35 PM PST by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously-you won't live through it anyway-Enjoy" 6Yourself ala Louis Prima)
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To: SeekAndFind

Let’s see, the loser bankrupt NYTs telling us why a winner is actually a loser. What a joke.


17 posted on 12/15/2015 8:15:04 PM PST by Jim W N
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To: Helicondelta

Where is that poll from?


18 posted on 12/15/2015 8:16:02 PM PST by entropy12 (Go Trump 2016!)
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To: timestax
 photo 7893d1d1-adc0-4c6b-bf0e-6228536c9075_zpssffe8rub.jpg
19 posted on 12/15/2015 8:16:25 PM PST by timestax (American Media = Domestic Enemy)
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To: euram
He's survived a total media onslaught like we haven't seen since 2008 against Palin.

Yep.
20 posted on 12/15/2015 8:16:29 PM PST by JoSixChip
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