Posted on 12/11/2015 1:23:38 PM PST by SeekAndFind
A thought inspired by this morning’s skirmish. Everyone understands why Cruz is laying off Trump. Cruz wants his voters and he’s afraid that if he attacks, those voters will turn on him viciously. It’s painful to watch a guy who built his career as a fearless warrior against RINOs fawning over the biggest RINO in the race out of naked self-interest, but you can’t fault his strategy. Trump doesn’t just have a base, he has a cult of personality. Attack him and they’re apt to treat you as an outright enemy. You tread lightly around a man like that when you want something from his supporters.
That calculus doesn’t apply to Trump, though. Cruz has lots of fans, some very devoted and some less so, but he doesn’t have a cult of personality like Trump does. That’s because, I think, Cruz’s personality isn’t much of an asset to him. (It may be a liability.) Cruz fans like him because he really is a dogmatic conservative who’s on the right side of nearly every issue. Their loyalty is to the cause more so than to the man. Not so for Trumpers. Which means, if he wanted to, Trump could unload on Cruz without alienating the entirety of Cruz fans the way Trump fans would be universally alienated if Cruz went after Trump. Some Cruz fans would hold a grudge; if Cruz started to slip in the polls because of the attacks, many of them would opt for Marco Rubio over Trump on the theory that Rubio is a good conservative on most issues. But some Cruz fans, I think, would shift to Trump for a reason articulated by Cruz himself this morning:
The Establishment's only hope: Trump & me in a cage match. Sorry to disappoint — @realDonaldTrump is terrific. #DealWithIt
— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) December 11, 2015
Not a word about conservatism there, just “the Establishment.” Some Cruz fans probably prefer him to Trump because they’d rather nominate a populist who’s conservative, because they respect Cruz as a man of faith, because they like Cruz’s polished speaking style more than Trump’s, etc. But those people aren’t “Cruz or bust” voters. Primarily, as Cruz said, they’re against “the Establishment.” And if Trump could prove to them that he’d be better at bringing down the Establishment than Cruz would, some would shift to him. To put it another way, what Cruz fans and Trump fans all have in common is that they’re populists. Some Cruz fans are more populist than they are conservative. Those people are gettable by Trump. So why isn’t he trying to get them?
One possibility is that Trump is playing the same sort of game Cruz is. Why risk alienating another candidate’s supporters by attacking before you absolutely have to? But Trump has never followed that logic. He ripped Jeb Bush apart, went after Rubio as a “lightweight,” attacked Ben Carson — whose voters also want an “outsider” as nominee — as borderline nutty because of his youthful violent behavior, and so on. Trump’s always been willing to risk annoying other candidates’ committed supporters in the name of shaking loose the not so committed ones. Jeb is an especially instructive example because Trump’s main line of attack on him is that he’s a weakling. He’s “low energy,” he seems reluctant to fight back when Trump attacks, he’s not the sort of strong, self-assured leader America needs in troubled times. For all the ink spilled about why Trump’s fans are so dazzled by him, I think the alpha-male factor continues to get short shrift. Trump’s takedown of Jeb resonated because it exposed Jeb, the supposed 800-pound establishment gorilla, as a beta male who didn’t know what to do when he got slapped. He’s never been the same.
So here we are in December and there’s another guy who reeks of weakling jitters around Trump. It’s not the same type of jitters as Jeb — Cruz’s toadying to Trump has a tactical purpose whereas Jeb’s hesitance seemed more a product of his character. Even so, Trump seems to relish diminishing the men around him and Cruz’s reluctance to attack is an inscribed invitation to begin the diminishing. No one is more contemptuous of a beta male than the alpha to whom he’s toadying. Even some Cruz fans are disgusted with how far Cruz has gone to avoid conflict:
It's official. I'm embarrassed that I spent so much time helping this man get elected. Not sorry. https://t.co/1jAmiOB0X4
— C. Whalen Stephens (@CorieWStephens) December 11, 2015
If you like Cruz because he’s willing to tell Mitch McConnell to go to hell, watching him rapidly backpedal from Trump — who’s really not even pretending to be conservative at this point — is gross, whatever the strategic considerations. Which brings me back to the question: Why won’t Trump needle Cruz for acting like a beta the way he needled Jeb? He’s hinted at it before. He pointed out this morning that Cruz seems willing to criticize him in private but not in public, and he likes to note when asked about Cruz how Cruz seems to agree with literally everything he says. Painting Cruz as a beta male instead of criticizing his positions would also spare Trump from saying anything that might be taken as a criticism of conservatism, which would be a dangerous move. Again, if it’s true that Cruz’s fans are mainly loyal to the cause more so than to the man then Trump can get personal with Cruz without hopelessly alienating too many of them — weakling! toady! dumb shutdown idea! bought and sold by his alpha-male donors! — so long as he doesn’t get political. And Trump has good reason to do it. Now that polls are showing Cruz ahead in Iowa and with him having just landed Bob Vander Plaats’s endorsement, the sooner he tries to start taking Cruz down, the better for him.
If Trump launched an attack on Cruz, it would put Cruz in a bind. If he continues to hold his fire to appease Trump voters, even with Trump giving him both barrels, he’ll look even weaker than Jeb. If he decides he has no choice but to engage then he’ll probably end up alienating Trump voters even though Trump started it. That’s how cults of personalities work, after all; the leader is always right. That is to say, Trump could force Cruz into a situation where he has little to gain no matter what he does and much to lose. I think Cruz would have no choice but to hit back and to do it as politely as possible, hoping that the spectacle of him RINO-stomping Trump would appeal to some undecided anti-Trump voters on the right and boost his numbers that way. There may be voters out there who are leaning towards Rubio over Cruz but who hate Trump and would give Cruz a second look if he led the charge (reluctantly) against Trump. After all, it’s not as if Rubio’s been some warrior against Trump thus far — although he’s been tougher on him than Cruz has. How could he not be?
One more thing. The “true conservative” theory of elections for years now has been that the party will only win when it finally nominates a principled conservative who’s skilled at preaching for the cause. That’s Cruz. That’s the “bold colors, not pale pastels” strategy. Supposedly there’s a winning conservative majority out there but those voters aren’t showing up because you’re not connecting with them. You can’t win with a squish like McCain or Romney because guys like that aren’t selling full-spectrum conservatism. Go out there, show people that you’re going to govern like they want, and you’ll win every time. How come that approach isn’t working with Trump voters? Cruz is out there, preaching the good news of Reaganism, and not only is Trump leading nationally and in most states but Cruz is terrified that calling him out as a RINO, which he is, would backfire horribly. We’ve got the right messenger here, supposedly, and he’s offering the right message. Trump fans aren’t buying (yet). Why not?
and Newt as Trump’s Chief of Staff.. now all the Republican elite’s heads would explode
Cruz is no dummy. He knows that if you want to get elected, you have to kiss a few ugly babies. I have no problem with the babies he’s kissed.
Calling him a toady seems like the media really wants to provoke a fight. Cruz is wise to ignore this.
Neither do I “feel comfortable” with that; not at all.
(snort)
One of the biggest eeyore of online pundits calling Cruz an eeyore. Now that’s funny.
I thought the same thing until about ten days ago; then I thought: as vp, he will be set up to run for president!
Neither are in agreement with the GOPe, and attacking each just helps the GOPe attempt to gain traction in the polls and primaries.
If he becomes one, in Trump's eyes and nobody else's, he will go after him just like everyone else.
DONALD TRUMP IS NOT A NICE GUY IN COMPETITION.
And I would guess he's a sore loser.
‘Cause he has a brain in his head. The others have imploded directly because they attacked Trump. Well, maybe not Carson. There were other reasons for that.
Trump wants Cruz's votes. Once Trump takes out Bush and Christie, Paul and Carson, Fiorina and the others, he'll need to get support from Cruz's conservative base. Attacking Bush appeals to those voters. Attacking Cruz doesn't.
Point taken, but if Cruz is Veep, hopefully he will be involved in SOTUS appointments...
1. Trump and Cruz obviously have some kind of agreement.
2. Either man is easily superior to the rest of the field.
3. Relax.
Cruz would be great in several slots. VP, AG or SCOTUS. But my preference, at least initially is VP, to make use of his expertise in working things through Congress. Of course, he could do that by continuing in the senate, too. Trump will decide where he needs Ted most.
I’m beginning to think Trump is Cruz’s “PAC”....he can spend money and garner attention without having to file “government” reports to the Election bureaucrats...
Cruz is receiving substantial insider support and it will show in the next financial reports for the PACs.
The establishment thinks Trump is a bridge further than they're willing to go, but they may be hedging their bets with Cruz.
It's very important, I'm sure, for everyone to keep it quiet.
Remember, Cruz has placed some mainstream GOP votes when it counted.
His most aggressive opposition stances/votes are often when it just doesn't matter what his vote is.
Please note: The qualifiers I used are "some" and "often". That's not a universal indictment of Cruz.
I believe they're certain they can take out Trump at some point, and I think Cruz is somebody they hate, but could live with.
Cruz for Attorney General.
“Cruz as Vp is really a waste of talent for at least 4 years.
I`d rather he stay in the senate.”
I`ve heard the office of the VP ain’t worth spit.
Get that.
I like the idea of a Cruz ready succession to a 4 or 8yr Trump Presidency. VPs can make the jump to light speed if they are not buried underground like that Jimmy Buffet lookin’ mf old Joe.
Then I will be voting third party.
You said about Trump: “And I would guess he’s a sore loser.”
He would also exact revenge against the winner.
His wife talked about just this issue in a recent article I read.
She said Trump is a loyal friend for too long.. and then turns HARD on people eventually when he feels betrayed.
If there is another terrorist attack in America - especially if it is a significant one - then I think there’s no contest. Trump would have it hands down and would steam roll everyone - Hillary Benghazi Clinton included.
However, if that doesn’t happen, and (another ‘if’) if Cruz would win Iowa, then perhaps we would see a different dynamic at work. It’s just possible that Cruz still believes he can win with his stated strategy and his organized ground game and his supporters. He may feel things will still work his way and he won’t have to attack a fellow candidate. But right now, I call “still too early”.
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