Here’s Why Donald Trump’s December Poll Numbers Matter [December leader usually wins]

Time ^ | Dec 4 2015 | Time

[WilliamIII]

Here’s some good news for Donald Trump fans: History is now on his side.

For months, members of the Republican Establishment have dismissed Trump’s chances at snagging the party’s presidential nomination. But he’s still ahead in the December polls, a signal that has boded well for GOP candidates in the past.

In fact, according to a 1999 Gallup poll analysis, in almost every election since 1952, the leader in the Republican polls in the fall ended up being the party’s nominee.

[RitaOK]

I have noticed that too. It is almost like a parrot. Either he is has no original thoughts or he is vying to share the ticket, which personally I think will never happen.

[GilGil]

I can see why Cruz is doing this. It is all he can do but it is also a mistake because he is simply saying that Trump is right not that Cruz is better.

[vette6387]

Yeah, but the Black Guy for president thingy seems to have worn off this time!

[RitaOK]

Hammer, Nail.

I don’t really see how he is doing this. It’s embarrassing.

But, you’re right— it’s all he has.

What this does, as you say, is remind people exactly who it all comes from (TRUMP), and who said it all first (TRUMP), and from the beginning and is still saying it (TRUMP), and with the force of a gladiator.

It’s TRUMP, chapter and verse.

[Califreak]

Ah jeez....

:)

[DoughtyOne]

And his followers don’t even realize it.

It’s hilarious to watch him be the “Me too...” candidate.

Sorry, if I needed a knock off I wouldn’t support the guy I do.

[Bob434]

‘Bobbyboy’ ? Seriosuly? Whatever fella

[Bob434]

[[That is a hail Mary at this point. Absent an alien abduction Trump is the GOP nominee.]]

Thast remains to be seen0- he may very well be- however, there’s a long way to the election yet to go, and there is a valid argument that early supporters (of any candidate) aren’t exactly representative of the base because there are those who are more politically intuned, and not as reactionary as early supporters, who sit back and wait until near the end, then they come out to vote-

That’s all I’m getting at here- I’m not making predictions one way or the other- just trying to read tea leaves is all- nor am I hoping he does falter so all you trump only supporters who don’t like any negative things said about trump, keep calm- I wasn’t throwing a ‘hail mary’ hoping trump will fail- I like the fella- disagree with a few issues with him, but he’s mostly spot on on many of the major ones, and IF he is the candidate, I will gladly vote for him

I simply think Ted Cruz is biding his time- and slowly working his way to the front, and will give Trump a stronger run for his money the closer it gets to election time

[Bob434]

[[wishful thinking on your part,]]

Wishful thinking on my part Molly? Where did I EVER say I wished he would?

[[You’d declare it a dark, moonless night, in a shower of meteorites and a sky full of stars!]]

Thank you for thinking for me- but really I can do my own thinking thank you very much

[[I do get tired of eternal pessimists.]]

There’s nothing pessimistic about it- Politics is a dirty brutal game- Trump hasn’t been one who has had to soil himself like the others have, and may have a hard time dealing with it when confronted with it- That’s the only point I was trying to make- sorry you took such offense to it

[Bob434]

Since you’ve been the most civil in responding, I’ll address likewise-

I agree with most of what you say- All I’m suggesting is that we must remember it’s early- supporters of all candidates USUALLY are, for lack of a better term, ‘reactionary supporters’ who like to hear “I’ll get em- believe me’- or ‘I’ll make mexico pay- believe me’- people like hearing these things- all the candidates are doing it In the early debates- and that’s why we’re seeing wild swings in poll numbers (Trumps being the exception- He’s stayed high- and I think there’s another thing at play there too- celebrity, mega rich- people are drawn to that both out of admiration, and from thinking the person must be brilliant to have made such vast amounts of money- and they may well be right- )

The rubber though has yet to meet the road- so to speak- later voters NEED to hear specifics/ plans in order to get behind a candidate- and we’re seeing people like Ted beginning to climb the more he addresses crowds with specifics-

Now, having said that- Trump may very well have specifics that will assure voters- but if we’re honest, all we’re hearing now is ‘I’ll do this- believe me’ (Yes, he’s given some specifics on different issues- but the question is are they enough-)

Up until now, He’s not had to face really tough opposition/questions about policy

As I said in my first post in this htread- He’s not a usual candidate- PERHAPS, just perhaps, that fact alone will be enough for the people of this country (Lord knows it was when the current president was elected- people knew practically nothing about him- and they just wanted ‘change’ and freebies- and please, I’m NOT comparing trump to current- I’m just trying to gauge the mood of the country- and it does seem that the country is in the mood for a brash in your face, make no apologies president like trump would be, after we’ve had to endure 7 years of a whimp who is ashamed of his own country- this sentiment may just be all that is necessary for Trump to win- I have my suspicions though- I think the closer we get to elections, them ore people will demand to know the specifics- I could be wrong)

[[Reality is, Trump will win the nomination]]

Quite possibly yes- and I’m fine with that- however, like I mentioned, The boxing gloves have not yet come off (Because candidates are keeping heir ‘trump cards’ lol, close to their chests until closer to election day)- It remains to be seen how well he fairs when they do

[Bob434]

[[He is the head of many corporations and if that hasn’t unraveled him it ain’t gonna happen.]]

Possibly, politics and business are two different animals- it remains to be seen- I didn’t say he will unravel, I’m simply stating he’s perhaps in a different league now- Politics is far dirtier than business most of the times- (although he did have to deal with politicians like Koch of NY- they warred with each other for awhile- and Koch was brutal- Trump fared well there)

[[WE NEED A LEADER that has no fear and is NOT OWNED!]]

I agree- If He’s the man- then He has my support-

[Bob434]

[[He’s working his tail off, doing these rallies almost daily plus the talk and tv show circuits.]]

I agree- just watched a special on his career today infact- He’s a tireless worker- totally dedicated to his job- that is why his second wife left him ifnact -

[[he’s got a whole lotta people shoving him forward for added horsepower.]]

I agree- He’s got a good portion of the early people- but htere’s a lot of people that aren’t involved yet- people just sitting back and getting a feel for all the candidates, seeing who the party darling is going to be- it’s early yet-

But you do bring up a good point- of the early folks involved, he’s got a very large lead- and I think this really reflects the frustration people have with Washington and business as usual- Voters sent two strong messages- one during midterm elections- booting do nothing liberals and GOP from office, bringing in new blood- and 2, demanding people like boaener (can never spell his name lol) be booted from their position- This could the year America, feeling desperate about losing our constitutional rights, feeling desperate about having our religious rights trampled etc go for someone like trump- it certainly seems to be the mood of the country this early on- We’ll see if it lasts when the other folks not currently involved come out and give their support to whichever candidate- I suspect it will

[Bob434]

[[Now why the hell would I want to vote for one of the other jackazzes that have spent all this time between Reagan and now, ]]

Have you seen Cruz’s record? He doesn’t fit that generalization- the others? Yeah- they fit it to a T

[[People have pronounced judgment on those jackals and want no part of them.]]

I agree- they have sent two loud and clear messages so far- midterms and booting boener from office-

[Bob434]

[[what kind of controversy do you foresee that WOULD unravel him?]]

I wasn’t so much speaking about controversies as I was about political inexperience, and I wasn’t predicting it WOULD happen, just that it could- when pressed for specifics, if he can’t deliver, I think closer to election time, it could hurt him some- my previous posts go into more detail about this thought-

[Jane Long]

You know what? The fact that Trump is NOT a politician is EXACTLY why he’s polling so HIGH!!

We the People don’t want another ‘experienced politician’....or an inexperienced politician, either.

Time for real-life, business/people/payroll (for thousands) management experience to get this country back on track....and make it better than it’s been....in a long, long time.

[Bob434]

[[You know what? The fact that Trump is NOT a politician is EXACTLY why he’s polling so HIGH!!]]

Possibly Jane- I’ve brought up some points in my previous posts that I think are valid points concerning early polling results- and I’ve brought up points to why my points might be wrogn as well- I’m simply taking an objective look- trying to analyze the situation- I know my posts are long, but try to read through them because I think they address some valid points on both sides- - I agree that the sentiment you speak to is what the country is experiencing right now- but like one pundit today mentioned, Early polls aren’t usually reflective of how the country votes when the elections close in - that’s all I was getting at when I said he ‘might unravel’ - I didn’t mean for it to sound like he’d fall all to pieces- was a poor choice of words-

This country has been down this path before- The country was clamoring for change I n the early season, and they were getting behind Ross Perot (who incidentally Trump was involved with back then- thinking about a run for president even back then)- In the early season it looked like the country was solidly behind Ross- But as the election time grew near- he began to fade- quickly

I am not suggesting trump is perot by any means- just that the country has faced this kind of feeling of wanting a businessman instead of politician before (and also when the country elected Reagan- similar feeling- In Reagan’s case though, the people did stick by him- and they may with trump too)

We’ll see how it plays out- it’s going to be very interesting for sure-

[Jane Long]

You’re right...Trump is not Perot, by any stretch of the imagination (much to the chagrin of the MSM/GOPe/Cruzbots).

Perot was a pipsqueak

Trump is a gladiator
.

I don’t recall seeing YUGE, Trump-sized crowds at ANY GOP Pre-Nominee candidates’ rallies, before.

It’s morning in America, again!

[Bob434]

[[I don’t recall seeing YUGE, Trump-sized crowds at ANY GOP Pre-Nominee candidates’ rallies, before.]]

Ross was pulling them in pretty steadily In the beginning-

[[Perot was a pipsqueak]]

Lol aint that the truth- even had a pipsqueak voice to go along with his pipsqueak stature

I think it was the discovery channel that ran a trum p special- two hours long- about trump’s career- very interesting- He;s Defiantely a force to be reckoned with even when he loses (He was nearly bankrupt at oen point - a couple billion In the hole- but he worked hard and turned it all around with fantastic deals made with the banks-

He wasn’t afraid to try bold things, and even though they didn’t always work out- He always managed to turn losses around (except for loss of wife, and loss of a football league/team)

[entropy12]

If Trump can make it in NY, he can make it anywhere...

He is drawing bigger crowds every week than ALL OTHER CANDIDATES COMBINED.

Please do not hold your breath hoping for Trump to crash. It may be dangerous to your health.

[entropy12]

...our European Allies are depending on us to save the western world.

We have to save ourselves first. Very few have the financial know-how to understand the size of our debt. (National+states+personal) debt is $28,000,000,000,000 and growing. That equals $88,888 debt per man, woman & child.