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Chart That Could Decide the 2016 Election And it doesn’t look great for Democrats.
New Republic ^ | November 18, 2015 | David Dayen

Posted on 11/19/2015 4:32:25 AM PST by expat_panama

At first glance, the economy appears to be in a decent position to chug along or even improve—and bode well for the Democrats in 2016. But that first look may be deceiving.

To the extent that real-world events...

[snip]
 


Fortunately for Democrats, the Federal Reserve predicts 2016 growth at 2.4 percent, in line with other economists’ projections. Unemployment has fallen to the lowest rate in seven years. With threats of a debt-limit default or government shutdown (mostly) contained, self-inflicted wounds from Washington are unlikely. At first glance, the economy appears to be in a decent position to chug along or even improve—and bode well for the Democrats in 2016.


But that first look may be deceiving. When I want to understand future economic trends,...

[snip]

The chart measures the ratio between business inventories and sales. A higher ratio means that inventory is building up nationwide; a lower ratio means that consumers are snapping up goods as fast as they’re being produced.

[snip]

It’s important to note that slow growth in 2016 is not a consensus view among economists. You can envision a scenario where a banner holiday season depletes inventories, where job growth finally leads to higher wages, where consumers finally use the extra cash from low gas prices—and where any fears blow over. But if a generally on-target economist like Baker sees a low-growth story unfolding in 2016, it’s hard to completely dismiss it. And that should raise alarm bells at DNC headquarters.

(Excerpt) Read more at newrepublic.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: economy; election; investing; trump
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The bottom line here is that everyone's broke, nobody's buying, and inventories are piling up like 2008. Did I miss anything?
1 posted on 11/19/2015 4:32:25 AM PST by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama
> The bottom line here is that everyone's broke, nobody's buying, and inventories are piling up like 2008. Did I miss anything?

the cost of everything has risen under The One's watch except gasoline and I suspect its being manipulated to destabilize Russia's eonomy and other foreign enemies in addition to preventing the people from revolting.

2 posted on 11/19/2015 4:36:18 AM PST by jsanders2001
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To: expat_panama

Two things for which we can be thankful to Obama: 1. He’s by far the greatest firearms salesman of the era; and, 2. He’s in the process of wiping out the Democrats in 2016.


3 posted on 11/19/2015 4:36:18 AM PST by Jack Hammer
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To: expat_panama

Look for government spending to ramp up big time around August.


4 posted on 11/19/2015 4:40:30 AM PST by gusopol3
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To: expat_panama
Did I miss anything?

Nobody's working. The decreasing unemployment numbers are bogus.

-PJ

5 posted on 11/19/2015 4:41:16 AM PST by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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To: Jack Hammer

“He’s in the process of wiping out the Democrats in 2016.”

Unless the insane asylums are re-opened, Democrats will never be out of politics.

IMHO


6 posted on 11/19/2015 4:41:46 AM PST by ripley
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To: expat_panama
the economy appears to be in a decent position to chug along or even improve

Stopped reading right there.

7 posted on 11/19/2015 4:49:37 AM PST by Arm_Bears (Biology is biology. Everything else is imagination.)
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To: expat_panama

‘Did I miss anything?’
Electronic voting machine fraud...


8 posted on 11/19/2015 4:51:43 AM PST by ArtDodger
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To: 1010RD; A Cyrenian; abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; aposiopetic; Aquamarine; ..

Neat, the day before TGIF we get Sure Happy It's Thursday!  Metals sink into bases while stocks break out to new highs in mixed volume ("pressure" comes off and the rally resumes!). 

Econ reports for everyone to ignore today:

8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Continuing Claims
8:30 AM Philadelphia Fed
10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed
10:00 AM Leading Indicators
10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories

Is it just me or is everyone talking about a letter than nobody can see?   We're getting all kinds of reports that Yellen wrote a letter--

--yet while everyone says what they say is is in it, nobody seems to be able to actually show the letter itself.  Not even the Fed has any record of it.  Kind of sounds like Obama's US citizenship...

9 posted on 11/19/2015 4:53:55 AM PST by expat_panama
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To: Jack Hammer

Two things for which we can be thankful to Obama: 1. He’s by far the greatest firearms salesman of the era; and, 2. He’s in the process of wiping out the Democrats in 2016.
......
One consideration some have said is the invitation being useful to cause revolt enough to call for curfews and martial law...suspending elections.

Dear leader has ascended to his desired level of hatred for us and brazenness...he cares not what it makes the U.S. look like to the world, in fact, he relishes misrepresenting us (we the people) to the world.

I will not put such Alinskyish plans past this nefarious posse. When one has nothing to lose, one becomes that much more dangerous.


10 posted on 11/19/2015 4:55:40 AM PST by CincyRichieRich (Some Animals are more equal than others.)
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To: expat_panama

The dead vote.


11 posted on 11/19/2015 5:00:22 AM PST by Old Sarge
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To: expat_panama

Is this article from 2011? I ask because I distinctly recall reading a lot of articles from back then that bad the same meme.


12 posted on 11/19/2015 5:04:14 AM PST by henkster
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To: expat_panama

“Kind of sounds like Obama’s US citizenship... “

hahahah


13 posted on 11/19/2015 5:13:19 AM PST by citizen (A government governed by acronym agencies is dangerous to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness)
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To: expat_panama

“ying, and inventories are piling up like 2008. Did I miss anything? “

Just add in that the situation is worldwide and China is imploding. Just a small oversight.


14 posted on 11/19/2015 5:14:58 AM PST by DaxtonBrown (http://www.futurnamics.com/reid.php)
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To: jsanders2001

“...in addition to preventing the people from revolting. “

DING DING DING

We have a winner.

Those low prices have been “masking” other price increases. When they go back up - and they most certainly will, they have to - it will hurt. A lot of companies have been getting a “free ride” on not lowering their selling prices on plastic/oil based products (paints, plastic parts, refined oils, and so on). Have you seen shipping rates drop commensurate with oil/gas prices? Didn’t think so. So how is UPS managing to lose money?


15 posted on 11/19/2015 5:19:46 AM PST by The Antiyuppie ("When small men cast long shadows, then it is very late in the day".)
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To: expat_panama

Speculation is that the Fed Reserve will raise interest rates in December. Reason given is that they believe the economy is more or less back on track. I think they should have raised rates a long time ago. ZIRP is killing retirees who are on a fixed income.


16 posted on 11/19/2015 5:28:09 AM PST by randita
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To: expat_panama

Worst economy since Jimmy Carter, we’ve been reduced to a food stamp nation, the national debt has doubled, America is a laughing stock to the rest of the world, and the community organizer in chief has successfully sown strife throughout the country.

If the Repukelicans can’t edge out a victory in 2016 they need to disband and seek honest work.


17 posted on 11/19/2015 6:10:54 AM PST by SharpRightTurn (White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: SharpRightTurn; All

Tumbling Treasury Yields Signal Possible Fed ‘Policy Error’ Being Priced In
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-19/tumbling-treasury-yields-signal-possible-fed-policy-error-being-priced
...it appears the bond market is already beginning to price in a “policy error.”


18 posted on 11/19/2015 6:31:46 AM PST by citizen (A government governed by acronym agencies is dangerous to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness)
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To: randita
ZIRP is killing retirees who are on a fixed income.

If your retirement depends on savings account interest or short term CDs, you're doing it wrong.

19 posted on 11/19/2015 6:58:19 AM PST by Toddsterpatriot ("Telling the government to lower trade barriers to zero...is government interference" central_va)
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To: All
Caterpillar: 35 months of consecutive retail sales declines


20 posted on 11/19/2015 7:51:45 AM PST by citizen (A government governed by acronym agencies is dangerous to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness)
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