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Why were the polls so wrong?, Kentucky governor edition
Washington Post ^ | November 4 | Philip Bump

Posted on 11/04/2015 9:20:23 AM PST by Lazamataz

If you'd asked most political people a week ago who'd be celebrating his victory in the Kentucky gubernatorial race Wednesday morning, they'd have probably guessed it would be the Democrat, Jack Conway. Kentucky has a long tradition of electing Democrats to the highest position in the state; since 1971, only one Republican had won the position (Ernie Fletcher in 2003).

But also, the polls! Surveys conducted in late October showed Conway with a decent lead over Republican Matt Bevin -- suggesting that the race would be close, but Conway was likely to win.

Conway didn't win. Conway got beaten, badly -- as did three other Democrats running in Kentucky's six statewide elections.

So how'd the polls get it so wrong? And, as an important corollary, should we, once again, be worried about the polling guiding the coverage of the 2016 election?

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Kentucky
KEYWORDS: conway; elections; jackconway; kentucky; polling; polls; teapartyrebellion; trumpaffect
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Philip Bump is very concerned the polls were so wrong.

He should be, he's the hack that constantly pushes fake polls about Donald Trump.

1 posted on 11/04/2015 9:20:23 AM PST by Lazamataz
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To: Lazamataz

http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2015/11/03/minnesota-media-poll-shows-donald-trump-on-top-and-defeating-hillary-outlet-promptly-deletes-their-own-findings/


2 posted on 11/04/2015 9:21:28 AM PST by dforest
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To: Lazamataz; All

why were the “polls” wrong?

because left wing media manipulates them to lie and demotivate conservative voters- that’s why


3 posted on 11/04/2015 9:22:03 AM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: Lazamataz

B T T T


4 posted on 11/04/2015 9:22:03 AM PST by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) since Nov 2014 (GOPe is that easy to read))
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To: God luvs America; Lazamataz

When the mediots start to believe their own BS, things get interesting.


5 posted on 11/04/2015 9:23:03 AM PST by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) since Nov 2014 (GOPe is that easy to read))
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To: Lazamataz

The polls are often wrong. They are just tools of manipulation. I ignore them. Too many people are influenced by the them. “Oh my guy can’t win...” I don’t care what the polls or the pundits say. I will vote for the best candidate. Period.


6 posted on 11/04/2015 9:25:17 AM PST by The Ghost of FReepers Past (Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light..... Isaiah 5:20)
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To: God luvs America

Yep, that’s why I hate polls. You can get ‘em to say whatever you want, just depends on who you ask. I have long suspected the alphabet tv news polls are conducted inside their own studios. IMO polls are now used to attempt to not only sway voter decisions but even voter turnout as well.


7 posted on 11/04/2015 9:25:28 AM PST by V_TWIN
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To: stephenjohnbanker

Their term is “confirmation bias”, I think. When you think something just because you want to believe it. It is good...the dims will not get rablled about if they think their guy is winning!


8 posted on 11/04/2015 9:25:58 AM PST by gr8eman (Don't waste your energy trying to understand commies. Use it to defeat them!)
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To: Lazamataz

Most of us here on FR have been laughing at the polls. The media polls are agenda driven. Nationally they are trying to take down Trump as one example. They will promote the Republican that they think Hillary can beat.


9 posted on 11/04/2015 9:25:58 AM PST by Parley Baer
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To: Lazamataz

The MSM just makes up the numbers straight from their asses to convince people the Dummycrats are winning. It’s always a cycle that the presidency flips every 8 years.


10 posted on 11/04/2015 9:26:44 AM PST by max americana (fired every liberal in our company at every election cycle..and laughed at their faces (true story))
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To: pocat

ping


11 posted on 11/04/2015 9:27:59 AM PST by timestax (American Media = Domestic Enemy)
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To: Lazamataz

First of all who still has a land line? And I suspect a lot of folks tell “white lies” when talking to a pollster.


12 posted on 11/04/2015 9:28:05 AM PST by jpsb (Believe nothing until it has been officially denied, Otto von Bismarck)
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To: Parley Baer

“Most of us here on FR have been laughing at the polls.”

Most? Maybe you haven’t been paying attention but both Trump and Cruz fanboys on FR always post articles about their boy winning and everyone gets a hard on that their candidate is winning.


13 posted on 11/04/2015 9:28:43 AM PST by max americana (fired every liberal in our company at every election cycle..and laughed at their faces (true story))
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To: Lazamataz

This happened in Israel, too. Polls are meaningless, IMHO.


14 posted on 11/04/2015 9:29:05 AM PST by Politicalkiddo ("This is the way the world ends--Not with a bang, but a whimper.")
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To: jpsb

I still have a “digital” land line. None of that analogue stuff for me....


15 posted on 11/04/2015 9:29:09 AM PST by Paladin2 (my non-desktop devices are no longer allowed to try to fix speling and punctuation, nor my gran-mah.)
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To: Lazamataz
Why are the polls so "off"?


16 posted on 11/04/2015 9:30:33 AM PST by C210N (When people fear government there is tyranny; when government fears people there is libertye)
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To: Lazamataz

That is becoming a more and more common question. The pollsters aren’t asking preferences anymore, they are attempting to steer results.


17 posted on 11/04/2015 9:32:10 AM PST by pfflier
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To: Lazamataz
He should be, he's the hack that constantly pushes fake polls about Donald Trump.

When they see it's time to lie, the liberal pollsters bs bias will be against the R conservative all the time. You can take that to the bank.

18 posted on 11/04/2015 9:32:46 AM PST by Red Steel
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To: dforest

Wait, what? The polls were wrong? Unpossible. Isn’t yeb boosh in the lead in all 57 states for the gopE vomination as the cantidate that can “fix it”? LOL!


19 posted on 11/04/2015 9:33:13 AM PST by rktman (Enlisted in the Navy to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?!)
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To: God luvs America

You’re a genius. Simple straight perfect answer.


20 posted on 11/04/2015 9:33:27 AM PST by longfellow (Bill Maher, the 21st hijacker.)
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