Posted on 10/27/2015 4:59:47 AM PDT by jimbo123
Ben Carson has edged out fellow GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump in a new national poll, taking the top spot from the real estate mogul for the first time in months.
Carson is supported by 26 percent of GOP primary voters, followed by Trump at 22 percent, according to the CBS News/New York Times poll released early Tuesday. All other candidates follow in the single digits, with Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) at 8 percent and businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 7 percent each.
The poll represents growing momentum for Carson, who surpassed Trump in several polls in the early voting state of Iowa over the past week ahead of the next GOP debate on Wednesday.
"Ben Carson is now doing well," Trump acknowledged on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" after the poll came out, adding that he believed Carson would see more scrutiny as a front-runner.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
What’s Carson even doing in the presidential race- not to mention running ahead of Trump??!!
(Well, after all, us Repugs don wanna be called RAY-cess. Heaven forbid!) To H*ll with the economy,foreign policy and Muzzies taking over and killing us all!
Carson’s got nothing! (except a rep for being a ‘nice guy’ and cracking cute little jokes.) He’s got NOTHING. Just another weak RINO
What’s he gonna do with murderous jihadists colonizing the U.S? Tell them cute little jokes and beg them ‘please don’t slaughter any more Christians. Pretty please, with sugar on it’?
We need a strong, brilliant steam roller like Trump to go in to Washington, slap down the sorry RINOs, deal with the muzzies (before they take over and kill us all) and clean up the mess Omuslim has made that has almost destroyed America and our way of life. We need someone to make America respected again- great again!!
I’d go for a Trump/Allen West ticket- but CARSON IS NO ALLEN WEST!!
+1000 No need for me to post after this, you said it all!!!
Do you sometimes feel like the Mainstream Enemedia's marionette?
Look in the mirror - you might see the strings.
Dance, puppet!
4 years ago Romney was already leading in the early states:
Oct. 26, 2011
CNN/TIME Poll: Romney Leads Republican Rivals in First Four Primary States
Going forward the polls won’t change much. Romney ended up losing IA and SC narrowly but still won the nomination.
I’m not one for conspiracies, but Cruz isn’t in the top five all of a sudden, Carly has jumped up from 3, and Trump fell to 22 percent while Carson gained? wow.
LOL!
The crowds at the Trump venues were actually there for Carson.
Dance, puppet!
He doesn’t sound like a buffoon.
You’re so full of it, TDSer.
You don’t understand the appeal of Dr. Carson.
You don’t understand the appeal of Dr. Carson.
Don’t have a clue what you are talking about. While I’m not a big fan of either, I would certainly prefer Trump over the gun grabber Carson.
It’s evident to me, too.
If we go by crowds Bernie Sanders may well be POTUS in January 2017.
The polls showing Trump as frontrunner were mostly bogus because all polls are bogus.
Polls are propaganda mostly used by the dinosaur media to ‘shape public opinion’. They are still used by those who fancy themselves as kingmakers.
Many polls are designed to be scientific using a statistical sampling plan that is acceptable to those with knowledge of statistical theory. But most scientific polls are conducted using cells and landlines which ruin the ‘science’, why? Because most people hangup, screen out or are otherwise not available. These are called statistical ‘nonresponses’. The nonresponse rate today is enormous, typically averaging about 90%.
With nonresponse rates as high as they are, the accuracy of today’s political polls has a true margin of error on the order of about 50% to 60%, yet polls report typically 3% to 5%, why? It’s due to computing standard deviations on the responses only, and ignoring the nonresponses. But it sounds good which to the legacy media is all that matters.
Trump touts his lead in the polls because it allows him to promote himself as electable and solid. He’s using it to his advantages. Although the polls are bogus, it does not hurt to promote a bogus positive. Any positive is welcome.
The only saving graces for polls these days are two that come to mind:
1) Many of the ‘major’ more ‘respected’ polls are fortunately somewhat INDEPENDENT of each other; with emphasis on ‘somewhat’. This means they are hard to bribe or arrange so that they all report the same thing. For example, say a WSJ poll comes out with 44% favorability (bogus) for Trump and 32% favorability (bogus) for Carson, CNN pollster workerbees can be ‘managed’ to come up with something a little more ‘negative’ on Trump but not so far out of whack that it looks suspicious. So for example, they may be told to call and call landlines inside the Beltway where many residents are pro-government and Trump-hating. They call and call until they get desired bogus results like Trump favorability of 38% (not 44%) and Carson favorability of 35% (not 32%), and then they report it as neck-and-neck. The quasi-independence of polling groups results in some pollsters cheating on the sampling plan but not too much. So this ‘independence’ keeps the cheaters a little less dishonest.
2) A downward trend in the polls to a prolonged single digit state is a reliable indicator that the candidate is done, finished, gone. This is reliable for several reasons, a couple of which are the quasi-independence of polls described above, and the fact that funding dries up for nonperforming candidates as measured by declining prolonged poll results.
Knowing that all polls are bogus, I worried that Donald would face poll manipulation on the part of CNN, ABC, NBC, WAPO, and all the rest. But the propaganda has had its effect. To get Donald in an unfavorable light now, one need only call Beltway regions and other known liberal and establishment pockets of anti-Trump persons. The polling workers who are at the phone banks learn over time which areas have certain views that do not change. When that knowledge is fed back to polling managers, it becomes easy to violate the sampling plan (which is useless anyway because of the enormous nonresponse rates) and concentrate the calling intensity in areas that give the desired results.
But hopefully, the quasi-independence of polling organizations will hold up and deny cheaters an opportunity to manipulate public perception.
At best, polls are good propaganda for one’s favored candidate, whoever that is and are a death-knell for candidates that can’t climb out of single digits, especially those that have fallen into single digits and stay there (e.g. Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, etc.).
Today, there are other indicators that are more reliable than phone polls. They are not scientific, but they measure a depth of commitment or an unbiased snapshot.
1. The first most reliable non-scientific indicator are the number of persons that show up at rallies. It takes energy to get up, get dressed and prepared, put all other plans aside, travel and stand in line to see a candidate. Such people can be considered as assured votes, the same as if it was election day. Contrast this depth of commitment with the small amount of energy it takes to answer a phone and respond to a few questions, or contrast with the zero energy of what 9 out of 10 persons do when they hear a poll on a phone or an email; they hang up or they never answer (and are marked as a nonresponse in either case and ignored in the analysis).
2) Barbershops and beauty salons are neutral venues where people relax and openly express views on their favored candidates. A scenario has a pollster sitting in a wait-area while feigning to read a newspaper or magazine and overhear conversations of clients. This would be more reliable than polls because the clients are relaxed and more open, and they randomly come through the door. To be scientific would require pollsters embedded in hundreds of barbershops and salons in various regions and economic zones of the country and analyzed as weighted by population of the region where data is collected. Such a poll would be much more accurate than what passes for a poll today. But it would very expensive which raises another issue that most polls are cheaply done and we know that one gets what one pays for. In other words, we are reminded most every poll today is bogus.
Yes, I always trust unbiased polls from CBS News and the New York Times.
The GOPe apparently thinks that you are prime puppet material, Dr. Carson.
I think you’re 100% right on the Trump campaign’s Iowa strategy. Corey L. is very smart. I also think the Iowa situation is a blow to Trump’s ego and I hope he can deal with it strategically rather than getting too outwardly emotional about it.
As Jesus is my savior you have laid out my concerns and put together a ticket I can wholeheartedly support.
Its early but Trump’s behind the scenes folks need to go after the primary voters...regardless of the crowd size if they dont vote all is lost.
Another thing is his supporters need to get to work.....and get rid of the ‘follower’ mentality. Face reality. Use constructive criticism. Trump was roundly booed by the Value Voters...concerning a low comment about Rubio. Trump looked shocked. The Value voters are a very polite group.
But then here on good ol FR when this was pointed out the FOLLOWER crowd went ballistic LOL. If Trump told them to drink muslim vomit they wouldnt hesitate. There are plenty of FOLLOWERS here!
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