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Is it True Donald Trump Cannot Win the Presidency?
The New York Times ^ | October 12, 2015 | David Leonhardt

Posted on 10/12/2015 5:44:24 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

A reader writes, “Everyone says Donald Trump can’t win. Exactly why not?”

David Leonhardt, editor for The Upshot, considers the question:

Can Donald Trump win the Republican nomination? Sure, it’s within the realm of plausibility; he’s now been leading the polls for months, after all. But it seems highly unlikely because it would violate just about every historical pattern of presidential races.

No modern candidate has received a major-party nomination — and perhaps no candidate in American history — while being opposed by the party’s elites: donors, media figures, politicians and others.

Elite support matters because they have the ability to shape public opinion through endorsements, public criticism and other means. Many voters don’t follow campaigns very closely. They don’t dig through position papers or watch hours upon hours of debates. They’re influenced by what they hear.

In every recent Republican presidential campaign, a couple of contenders — often with resumes atypical of a serious candidate — have shot to the top of the early polls, only to fade as they face scrutiny and criticism. What’s fascinating about Mr. Trump is that he has, if anything, endured harsher criticism, and yet he has also remained atop the polls for longer.

Perhaps Republican primary voters have grown so fed up with the country and their party that they’re willing to dismiss the collective opinion of Republican elites (which now seems to favor Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush). But it really would be unprecedented for the party to nominate someone like Mr. Trump, Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina....

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Philosophy; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: davidleonhardt; moretrumpdoomporn; newyork; newyorkcity; newyorkslimes; trump
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Write-in by the millions. Think outside of that stupid little GOP box.


81 posted on 10/12/2015 6:58:51 PM PDT by GingisK
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To: editor-surveyor

look at the polls yourself, then look at what the polling companies are saying about their reliability. Gallop has basically said they will withdraw until a better metric can be found. The Donald’s negs have halved in the last 3 months are now averaging about 30% and down trending. Id prefer Cruz carson or Rubio but the damage trump could do to the establishment, the rules of the house, and the fear he’d instill in the dem’s and the world would only be for the good.


82 posted on 10/12/2015 7:00:48 PM PDT by waynesa98
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To: cuban leaf

Love it!


83 posted on 10/12/2015 7:05:01 PM PDT by Irish Eyes
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To: HiTech RedNeck

Hildabeast looks to be losing the union endorsement, thus the ground game goes up for grabs. This is not even close to a normal election, you need to talk to people and see how angry they are.


84 posted on 10/12/2015 7:05:25 PM PDT by waynesa98
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Screw the media; screw the inside the Beltway elites; and screw the GOPe. I’m casting my vote for Donald Trump whom I believe will be the next President of the United States. The more I see the absolute fear and sheer panic in the press and on television as well as blog posts,the more cemented my vote is for Trump. And guess what I’m far from alone in feeling this way!


85 posted on 10/12/2015 7:13:18 PM PDT by navymom1
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

the more you make the cheaper they are on a per unit basis. And JASSAM can be exported to many of our friends. The real game changer is the EMP uav. Next up for operational fielding is a 150kW uav flying laser platform. Announcing operational 2017 which means its already flying. Give picket missile defense as well as non detectible air dominance. Tech is about 5 yr old electric, so generators need to be made more efficient and lighter


86 posted on 10/12/2015 7:14:10 PM PDT by waynesa98
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To: sushiman
” No, he will not be president. “ That means either Hillary , Biden or Sanders WILL . Wonderful ...

Nope, the Republican nominee will be....won't be Trump.

87 posted on 10/12/2015 7:14:10 PM PDT by terycarl (COMMON SENSE PREVAILS OVERALL)
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To: GingisK

Never check the pub box check the conservative box unless you have no alternative.


88 posted on 10/12/2015 7:16:40 PM PDT by waynesa98
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To: stars & stripes forever
If Trump wins the nomination will likely run against the most unpopular democrat of all time. Hillary's negatives are colossal and she might even be indicted during the campaign. Her best hope is to run a dirty and negative campaign because she has no accomplishments to run on and many to run from. She is counting on the woman's vote because women tend to move in packs together. It was the female demographic much more than the black demographic that elected Obama. Donald will hear a never ending chorus of "war on women" "misogynist", "war on women"...ad nauseam. I believe that Hillary's strategy will ultimately fail. No self-respecting man wants an ugly shrew to be his boss and enough women are attracted to the wealth and self assurance of Trump that he is likely to split the woman's vote. The establishment republicans will circle the wagons and hold their nose to keep Hillary out while setting their sights on frustrating him in office in hopes of a single term president. So if Trump is the nominee I think his chances are pretty good to win.

But I'm still all in for Cruz, the most consistent, constitutional conservative in the race; not because I think he is the best hope of winning, but because he currently best hope for America!

89 posted on 10/12/2015 7:19:44 PM PDT by DaveyB (Live free or die!)
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To: terycarl
Such as ?

Tell us all and r=then give us the winning powerball numbers for Wednesday.

90 posted on 10/12/2015 7:23:30 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: Lurkinanloomin
The only two who have dropped out were on the side of the illegal aliens and their employers. At least Trump is on the side of the citizens.

Wrong on Walker and Trump is naive as hell on immigration...you cannot deport 13,000,000 anythings and building a wall in the 21st century only assists ladder and hole saw manufacturers....and unless you extend the wall far into the sea, it is worthless.

91 posted on 10/12/2015 7:25:08 PM PDT by terycarl (COMMON SENSE PREVAILS OVERALL)
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To: waynesa98
I agree with you...isn't it sad that power and money can do that to people...I've never been able to understand it...I have always had more than enough money, have worked jobs and positions of a lot of power, but I didn't think that was what I was there to do....I worked for the Company, not for me...

We elect these people because we think they will do good for Our Country, and they end up taking bribes and the lobbistists go in and promise them the world and they do anything to obtain it...so sad....

92 posted on 10/12/2015 7:28:02 PM PDT by HarleyLady27 (I have such happy days, and hope you do too!!!)
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To: DaveyB

[But I’m still all in for Cruz, the most consistent, constitutional conservative in the race]

TED CRUZ has the fear of the Lord, which is the beginning of wisdom. He also has experience and know how to lead our nation back to its Constitutional roots.

TED CRUZ 2016


93 posted on 10/12/2015 7:39:50 PM PDT by stars & stripes forever (Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord.)
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To: cuban leaf
He won by 31 lengths, a phenomenal performance!

 photo imageedit_11_9725954934_zpsro75itmi.gif

94 posted on 10/12/2015 7:53:45 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: terycarl

IMHO , Trump is the only R who can win . Get back to me in Nov. 2016 IF it’s anybody but Trump .


95 posted on 10/12/2015 7:54:42 PM PDT by sushiman
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To: bray

America is waking up and Trump is the alarm clock !


96 posted on 10/12/2015 7:56:17 PM PDT by sushiman
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To: DaveyB

Trump/Cruz 2016 ...Cruz/? 2024 ...


97 posted on 10/12/2015 7:57:38 PM PDT by sushiman
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To: editor-surveyor
Trump will not get the nomination.

Over 60% say that they would not vote for Trump under any circumstances.

It's possible that 60 percent is a hole in the hull that will take him down. But it's also way early, and never is a long time.

When faced with 0bummer, I reluctantly voted for McCain. When faced with any of the Dems on the horizon as Nov. '16 approaches, I think it's hard to say a lot of GOP skeptics wouldn't become Trump converts PDQ.

98 posted on 10/12/2015 8:04:31 PM PDT by SamuraiScot
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To: HarleyLady27

If you want to understand the why you need to research-
Fabian socialists

Ted Roosevelt, likely the person that has stabilized and destabilized global relations the most(personal actions verse policies)

Margaret Sangers Hatred of blacks and the underclass, see the above. google George Bernard shaw video.
once you read up will discuss Hitler the extermination camps, WWI, WWII, the collapse of the family in western nations, and the arch of the fabians in the remaking of the world.

We are in end times unless the USA decides to stop the crap.


99 posted on 10/12/2015 8:09:00 PM PDT by waynesa98
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To: cuban leaf

Now THAT’S a thought.


100 posted on 10/12/2015 8:09:10 PM PDT by gogeo (If you are Tea Party, the GOPee does not want you.)
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