Virginia Primary Poll: Trump 23 Carson 17 Rubio 14 Fiorino 13 Bush 9 Cruz 5

Real Clear Politics ^ | 10/12/2015 | CNU

[I Hired Craig Livingstone]

Trump +6

Poll taken 9/29-10/8 MOE +/- 5.1

[Robert A Cook PE]

Washington Post Headline tomorrow:

"BUSH GAINS on TRUMP IN VA!"

[BigEdLB]

406 people surveyed over 10 days? that is truly odd.

[ripnbang]

Or, “Carson Trump tied!” (MOE 5.1%)

[Red Steel]

These pollsters are managing the Trump numbers. It’s likely over 30% for Trump.

[Kenny]

These pollsters are managing the Trump numbers. It’s likely over 30% for Trump.

I totally agree. No other candidate has thousands waiting in line to hear them speak. I really believe that this is as low as polling agencies can show without blowing their cover. But after all, who hires them, right?

[Red Steel]

This is more closer to the truth. Correcting by using their MOE of a hefty 5.1%, it’s 28.1% and 11.9% for Carson.

[BigEdLB]

CNN/ORC published Dem polls from NV and SC today. They need a day to massage the Trump margins downward. Probably +15 in NV and +25 in SC if they were honest.

[BigEdLB]

CNN/ORC published Dem polls from NV and SC today. No GOP polls. They need a day to massage the Trump margins downward. Probably +15 in NV and +25 in SC if they were honest.

[EagleUSA]

“..These pollsters are managing the Trump numbers. It’s likely over 30% for Trump...”

Yes they are. Polls can be made to show ANY RESULT the person paying for it wants. They are near useless until you get within a few days of the election -— then only a few are credible. Most are not.

[arthurus]

If those %ages hold for the primary itself, bush wins. All he has to have is for no one else to get a majority of the primary vote in more than 7 primaries. He is counting on eight left state primaries to give hi majorities. Those two things together would leave him the only one considered for nomination at the Convention. \

I hope the "outsiders" can hold Bush below majority level in those states like California or Massachusetts. If no one gets the requisite 8 majorities then presumably the convention would be wide open. Or maybe the RNC has not thought of that possibility and will have to change the rules again to permit the nomination of anyone at all. If they do that then they will change the rules so that Bush and only Bush benefits. Then there will be court challenges.

[I Hired Craig Livingstone]

Riots. Chicago Seven... err, Cleveland Seven.

[I Hired Craig Livingstone]

Riots. Chicago Seven... err, Cleveland Seven.

[JoeProBono]

[brydic1]

If these percentages hold, according to Virginia Primary rules no candidate that receives less than 15% of the vote gets any delegates. Trump would get the most delegates and Carson would get some. If they do not change the rules between now and the March 1 primary. Bush and other rinos would get no delegates.

[BlackFemaleArmyColonel]

That is odd. Looks fishy.

[brydic1]

Possibly some delegates could go to Rubio, if he is over 15% in vote totals. This is the story in most of the primaries. Some of the states have a 20% threshold for sharing in delegates. If the polls hold as they are now, Trump is unstoppable.

[Dr. Sivana]

These pollsters are managing the Trump numbers. It’s likely over 30% for Trump.

No. Virginia is flooded with contractors and consultants who benefit from status quo. Trump is still ahead even there.

I support Cruz, but Trump is running a strong campaign. It will be interesting to see who panics and throws $50 million at cable television first. Rubio cannot. Cruz will not. That leaves John Ellis Bush. My guess is his people ae waiting for something that can be construed as a misstep (whether it is or isn't) and may make their move then, but not until a couple more drop out.

[JediJones]

These pollsters are managing the Trump numbers. It’s likely over 30% for Trump.

Trump Rearrangement Syndrome?

[Red Steel]

TDS from Ds and from Rs.

We’ll see. It’s not long now as 2016 is coming very fast when we’re going to find out. Tic toc tic toc. ...