Posted on 09/29/2015 8:57:18 AM PDT by Ooh-Ah
What is the Russian government up to in Syria? After weeks of agitating for the creation of an international "united front" to confront the Islamic State terrorist group (and rehabilitate its longtime ally in Damascus in the process), the Kremlin has taken matters into its own hands.
Beginning in early September, the Russian government commenced what amounts to a major intervention in the Syrian civil war. Over the past month, it has dispatched thousands of troops, established a new air base in the port city of Latakia and deployed heavy war materiel (including advanced T-90 tanks, howitzers and a contingent of fighter aircraft) to the Syrian battlefield. In the process, Russia has succeeded in dramatically altering the contours of the four-and-a-half-year-old conflict.
On the surface, Russia's objective is straightforward. The Assad regime has suffered a series of significant battlefield setbacks of late. According to a recent survey by Jane's Intelligence Review, the Syrian regime's hold on territory has shrunk by 18% over the past eight months. It now controls just a sixth of the country. As a result, President Bashar Assad is increasingly playing a defensive game, with his forces fighting to maintain control of vital population centers such as Damascus and Homs. Moscow, as Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted in a recent interview with Charlie Rose, is trying to reverse this decline and keep Assad afloat.
But the Kremlin's calculus does not end there. In addition to preserving the status quo in Damascus, Moscow is also seeking to accomplish at least three other strategic goals:
Changing the conversation. While the Russian government continues to apply broad political pressure on the Ukrainian government, it is increasingly apparent that its Ukraine strategy is struggling. Moscow still possesses the ability to dramatically escalate hostilities in its conflict with Kiev, as recent reports of a significant Russian military presence on Ukrainian soil make all too clear. But the rapid, decisive strategic victory once promised by Putin has proved elusive — while the real-world costs to Russia's economy of his foreign policy adventurism continue to mount. Against this backdrop, Russia's involvement in Syria can be seen as a way to change the subject and regain momentum lost closer to home in recent months.
Securing access to the Mediterranean. Russia's conception of itself as a global player hinges upon its continued ability to project power into multiple world theaters. In this calculus, Syria's port in Tartus — which Moscow has claimed as the home base of its Mediterranean flotilla since the early 1970s — represents a crucial strategic prize. The declining fortunes of the Assad regime have raised the unwelcome specter that the Kremlin could find itself without the ability to access the Mediterranean in the not-so-distant future. By reinforcing its troop presence within the country — and by broadening its footprint through the establishment of a second base in Latakia — Russia is working overtime to preserve its global reach.
Keeping Islamists at arm's length. Finally, Russia's steadfast support of Assad is driven, at least in part, by fears of swelling Muslim extremism closer to home. The Kremlin has good reason to be concerned. Earlier this year, the Caucasus Emirate, Russia's most potent jihadi group, formally pledged allegiance to ISIL, and the terror organization thereafter officially established a "governate" in Russia's restive majority Muslim regions of Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachayevo-Cherkessia.
The group's potential to threaten Russia, meanwhile, is expanding rapidly. A year and a half ago, Russian security officials were estimating that 800 to 1,000 Islamic extremists from the North Caucasus had joined the jihad in Syria. Today, the figure is much bigger; this month, Russian Deputy Director of Federal Security Sergei Smirnov officially put the number of Russian nationals fighting with ISIL in the Middle East at 2,400.
The Kremlin understands very well that should these jihadis return from the Syrian battlefield, its problem with Islamic militancy will become much worse. It has also clearly calculated that, with the right backing, the Assad regime could whittle down this contingent before it ever makes its way home.
All of which makes Russia's intervention in Syria an exceedingly high-stakes enterprise for the Kremlin. It is also why Moscow, now that it has become embroiled in the Syrian civil war, can't be expected to scale down its involvement there any time soon.
Putin is fighting on the right side, against ISIS, something Obama is only pretending to do. Obama has been building up the terrorists and supplying them with arms. And of course the UN can pretty much be counted on to take the wrong side, too, since it is stuffed full of Muslim countries and Muslim lovers.
Syria would be a nice part of the chessboard for Russia to control.
Think of it as a big base.
Turkey to the North.
Saudi Arabia is what, 50 miles to the South? And isn’t Saudi Arabia already fighting in Yemen?
Putin is making move after move on the chess board while Obama is watching cartoons.
When you lead from behind, you invite others to take the lead.
Putin is playing Chess.
Obama is playing Chinese Checkers.......................
Mate in six...
I’m sure strategically outflanking NATO and gaining Mediterranean naval ports have nothing to do with it. Obama/Rodham Clinton/Kerry, aka the Three Stooges, may as well have sent Russia an engraved invitation.
Putin is fighting on Russia’s side, no other. He may clear away ISIS where it impinges on his ME designs and will clear away any other anti Assad groups along with ISIS. Russia and China now have a lock on Iranian and Iaqi oil.
The guy on the left says, “eewwww...”
The US couldn't do it with Afghanistan and Iraq and I'm sure Russia is going to slide even further into a morass if Putin doesn't drag everyone into as well.
Obama's speech to the UN was a direct warning about WWIII and his response with the world's most powerful military in my humble opinion.
So that’s what blood on you hands looks like.
LOL - Putin thinks Obama has cooties...
Putin, doing the work OBOZO refuses to do and can’t be compelled to do, thanks to Boner and McConnell.
The Russians have been in Latakia since the 60's.
Interesting that the exact same reasoning is moving the Russians that put Mr. Bush in Afghanistan and Iraq. Change the matchup from jihadis versus office workers in the World Trade Center, to jihadis versus First Tanks. See how they do then.
I'm personally convinced that was always Bush's strategy. That, and put a substantial army and friendly state between Iran and Syria.
Putin is doing this for his own benefit. But as a happy coincidence, his actions are also saving the culture and lives of Middle Eastern Christians and killing Moslems — both good
China needs oil and doesnt' trust the Saudis -- and they are RIGHT to not trust the Sauds
Nothing more will happen in the Ukraine. that place is collapsing. Putin has the Crimean naval base and eastern ukraine with all its manufacturing centers.
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