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Uh oh: Trump down nine points after debate in new Rasmussen national poll
Hotair ^
| 08/11/2015
| AllahPundit
Posted on 08/11/2015 11:34:13 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
I’m not telling you these polls are correct, just like I didn’t tell you yesterday that that bombshell Morning Consult survey showing Trump rising to 32 percent after the debate was correct. We’re tracking all of the polls this week to see what the consensus says, as that’ll be a reasonably good indicator of where the race really stands right now.
The good news for Trump fans via Rasmussen: He’s still leading the field. The bad news: For the first time since the start of Trumpmania, he’s losing ground rather than gaining it.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Trump with 17% support among Likely Republican Primary Voters, down from 26% in late July before the first GOP debate. Senator Marco Rubio and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are in second place with 10% support each, in a near tie with Fiorina and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker who both earn nine percent (9%) of the likely primary vote…
Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard and the candidate generally viewed as the winner of the B-level debate last Thursday evening, has jumped eight points from one percent (1%) support in the previous survey…
Rubio has doubled his level of support from five percent (5%) in late July. Carson has gained slightly. Walker has fallen back five points, while support for Bush and Cruz has held steady.
Fiorina and Rubio both had strong debates on Thursday so an accurate poll should, one would think, show them building support since last week. That’s what Rasmussen shows, to the point where Carly’s now in the top five. Moreover, one of the theories by Trump naysayers about his polling is that it’s deceptive insofar as it’s picking up (in some cases) supporters who are unlikely to actually vote in the Republican primaries. Ask an average American adult who’s not politically engaged who he/she prefers in a field of Donald Trump and 16 unknowns and you’re likely to hear “Donald Trump” in reply — even if that person has no intention of casting a ballot. Rasmussen seeks to control for that by polling only likely Republican voters. Within that group, they’re finding a nearly 10-point drop for Trump since last week.
That’s not the only poll out today with bad news, though. Suffolk polled Iowa and found Trump still leading there at 17 percent, which is in line with how we was doing in several pre-debate polls there over the last few weeks. Among people who watched the debate, though, the results were ominous:
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When asked if Trump was targeted unfairly by Fox’s moderators, 54 percent said no. When asked who was the most impressive at the debate, 23 percent said Marco Rubio, 22 percent said Ben Carson, and 11 percent said Ted Cruz. Slightly less than 11 percent said Trump. (For what it’s worth, despite Carson disappearing during the debate for long stretches, I’ve heard several conservative friends say how impressed they were with him. If Trumpmania begins to fizzle, Carson may be the guy who starts picking up Trump’s “no more politics as usual” support despite the fact that they’re polar opposites in personality.) Although Trump’s favorable rating in Iowa is now net positive at 45/37, he’s far behind his most serious competitors there in that metric: Scott Walker is at 73/13, Rubio is at 72/12, Carson is at 78/7(!), and Cruz is at 64/17. Quote:
It appears that Donald Trumps lead is strong so long as the number of active opponents remains above a dozen, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. If the Republican field were winnowed down to five or six candidates, Trumps 17 percent probably wouldnt be enough to win in Iowa, as polling indicates that his further growth has limitations. The long-shot candidates staying in the race help keep Trump on topat least for now.
One more poll for you, this from another early state. The Boston Herald and Franklin Pierce University polled New Hampshire after the debate and found, once again, Trump still in the lead. But he wasn’t the big mover this time — and his support was noticeably lower than it’s been in other recent NH polls:
The last four polls in New Hampshire had Trump at 21, 24, 24, and 32 points; this is the first time he’s been below 20 since late June. No crosstabs available yet, but presumably it’s the rising Kasich and Fiorina who have gobbled up some of his support. Kasich’s strategy, a la Jon Huntsman, is to all but skip Iowa and camp out in New Hampshire, hoping to stun the establishment frontrunner in the primary there next year and launch himself into serious contention for the nomination. Nate Cohn of the NYT looked at that Herald poll this morning and wondered if this month will be remembered in hindsight not for Trumpmania but as the month when Kasich became a serious enough contender in New Hampshire to threaten Jeb Bush. If you’re a Trump fan who’s bummed out about his new numbers, take some comfort in that. If Kasich cuts deeply enough into Jeb’s take in NH, it could enable some other candidate to sneak through to victory, all but destroying Bush’s campaign before it gets going. Second look at Kasich?
TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016; poll; rasmussen; strumpets; trump
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To: DoughtyOne
You lose all your bonus points because it is NO ones job in DC to create jobs. Not now, not ever.
The job of Congress and the president is to get the heck out of the way and let people create jobs.
This Republic is failing, economy included because the moral foundation that the fore fathers built into the design of this country has been chipped away at constantly. The reason it has been eroded is because too many people believe it’s the governments job to do every thing. They have abandoned the Constitution, and the Bill of Rights.
What is it the Trump acolytes think he going to accomplish with out understanding the very thing we conservatives have been fighting for our whole lives? A return to constitutional law.
From what I’ve seen so far he believes if he has a disagreement with someone the answer is to call them names.
Government should be run MORE like a business so that a budget is maintained, but this man filed bankruptcy 4 times.
Regardless, government is not a business, as it was never meant to show a profit or a loss. It doesn’t create anything, it just takes.
Yes he ran what is now a successful business, but until we put the country back into something close to what the founding fathers intended all the businessmen in the world wont be able to fix this, and in my opinion are part of the reason we’re in the shape we are now.
Trump said it during the debate. I bought and paid for those politicians. That’s just what we want to set as an example of how to fix this mess. People like Trump are the lobbyists that everyone is so angry at, and now he’s running for the best lobbying job in the world. It’s already run by too many corporate entities now, and you guys want to hand it over to the biggest one of all because right now he’s saying what you want to hear.
I foresee something very far away from the return to a Constitutional Republic with Trump. What I see coming is a person when disagreed with gets PO’d and when he doesn’t get congress to carry out his wishes starts issuing executive orders just like Obozo does because “He’s the Boss!”. If that’s the direction “Conservatives” want to continue towards, well then I guess I’ll have to pull my name out of the conservative ranks, and call myself a Constitutionalist.
All that’s if he’s not in this to split the Republican party so his friend Hillary is crowned queen.
121
posted on
08/11/2015 9:56:13 PM PDT
by
rikkir
(You can lead a horde to knowledge but you can't make them think. (TnkU ctdonath2))
To: rikkir
You lose all your bonus points because it is NO ones job in DC to create jobs. Not now, not ever.
The job of Congress and the president is to get the heck out of the way and let people create jobs.
It doesn't surprise me this is your perception. Truth is, it takes a man that has had to deal with government regulations to know which ones need to be done away with, so that the government can truly get out of the way.
Sure in a perfect world where things are running smoothly, you could say what you did and get away with it. Do you think things are running smoothly?
Who do you think has more experience having to fight government regulations? Trump or Cruz?
Remember, Cruz hasn't created one single job. He hasn't had to plan, carry through, and push to completion one economic project.
This Republic is failing, economy included because the moral foundation that the fore fathers built into the design of this country has been chipped away at constantly. The reason it has been eroded is because too many people believe its the governments job to do every thing. They have abandoned the Constitution, and the Bill of Rights.
LOL. Who doesn't agree with that? Are you and attorney? Was Ronald Reagan an attorney? Since when do our leaders have to be an attorney to read and adhere to the U. S. Constitution.
It was written simply so the common man could read it and undestand it. No sale. We don't need another attorney in Washington. We need someone who has at least a clue how the private sector works.
What is it the Trump acolytes think he going to accomplish with out understanding the very thing we conservatives have been fighting for our whole lives? A return to constitutional law.
We have somewhere between 40 and 90 million people out of work. We have a federal debt close to $19 trillion dollars. We have trade agreements that are so lopsided, that we are losing jobs to foreign nations. You take one look at this and reason that we need an attorney, more than an top ranked CEO that has worked in the private sector making ten billion dollar deals work.
Many of us don't agree, and we're not looking to economic eunuchs to explain it to us.
From what Ive seen so far he believes if he has a disagreement with someone the answer is to call them names.
So far from what you have seen, nobody ever called him names or put him down first? You're not really intellectually honest are you.
Government should be run MORE like a business so that a budget is maintained, but this man filed bankruptcy 4 times.
You say that like bankruptcy is a dirty four letter word. Bankruptcy is legal and is often an incredibly productive thing to do. Note the Trump's businesses are the entities that filed bankruptcy.
Which do you think is best for the community and the economy? A business closes it's door forever and thousands are out of work, creditors lose money anyway. A business declares bankruptcy, restructures, starts off fresh and becomes a productive entity within the community?
One leaves a big blotch on the community landscape, decaying, it and the nearby community devistated, years or decades before being recycled.
One sustains the business, remains a functioning entity that supports people, the community, the region, the state, and the federal government.
Regardless, government is not a business, as it was never meant to show a profit or a loss. It doesnt create anything, it just takes.
The federal government is run like a corporation. Why do you think it is called the Executive Branch of government. The President is the Nation's Chief Executive Officer. Read this from Investopedia LINK Text follows
DEFINITION of 'Chief Executive Officer - CEO'
The highest ranking executive in a company whose main responsibilities include developing and implementing high-level strategies, making major corporate decisions, managing the overall operations and resources of a company, and acting as the main point of communication between the board of directors and the corporate operations. The CEO will often have a position on the board, and in some cases is even the chair.
The President is the Nation's CEO. Congress essentially plays the roll of the Board of Directors. The Vice-President is delegated by the Constitution to be the President of the Senate. He acts on the President's behalf.
In this model, Congress manages all resources of a monetary nature. The president makes recommendations, and if he makes his case well enough or has his own party in control of Congress, he prevails and puts his agenda in motion.
The president can determine which departments are necessary. He can be influential in the shutting down of various Departments.
The government is not a business. You are right. None the less, high level corporate decisions must be made. The President still must make decsions affecting the nation's bottom line. I understand the Conservative arguments to be made about government sticking to it's madate, but there's only one way to achieve that. You need a CEO that understands the economic decisions that have to be made to juggle trillions of dollars effectively. Only he can focus singly to overcome the many voices trying to get credit, and provide a plan to reduce our spending, or re-prioritize. Trump wants to reprioritize to cut spending and pay down the debt.
I touched on the idea of juggling trillions of dollars. Trump has top level financial guys who have juggled hundreds of billions of dollars. They know how it's done. Trump, working with these men have a great chance to reduce our debt, reorganize social security, medicare, and other government programs.
Privatizing is what is needed. Trump understands that concept. He wants to eliminate Obamacare and privatize it. If he implemented the right plan, he could reduce our current debt, and effectively retire our unfunded mandates. Give the guy eight years and he'll have us well on the way to a 40 year plan that will see our debt retired in 20, and our funded mandates all but retired by 30.
This is something you need a economic powerhouse to do. A strick constitutional lawer is a good person, Cruz a case in point, but he is not what is needed right now.
Does Ted Cruz have any on hands experience in this field? No. Does he have a team in place he has worked with on issues like this for decades? No. This is not going to be popular with you, but it is the truth..
Yes he ran what is now a successful business, but until we put the country back into something close to what the founding fathers intended all the businessmen in the world wont be able to fix this, and in my opinion are part of the reason were in the shape we are now.
Wow. Washington is run by two groups. Lawyers and politicians. Bush is the last guy to have Corporate experience, and his corporate experience was not something of his own doing or something he was particularly brilliant at. This in mind, you state that in your opinion the businessmen are part of the reason we're in the shape we are now.
No, attornies had very little to do with it, and lifetime politicans didn't either. Ouch!
Trump said it during the debate. I bought and paid for those politicians. Thats just what we want to set as an example of how to fix this mess. People like Trump are the lobbyists that everyone is so angry at, and now hes running for the best lobbying job in the world. Its already run by too many corporate entities now, and you guys want to hand it over to the biggest one of all because right now hes saying what you want to hear.
Okay mighty Kong, I keep seeing this trotted out as a fact de jure. Name for us what favored treatment Trump received.
1. What was it?
2. What was illegal about it?
3. How did it affect our nation negatively?
4. Why do you think this would take place over and over if Trump were president?
I foresee something very far away from the return to a Constitutional Republic with Trump.
You can't even see the need for a person with CEO experience. You so anti-Capitalist that you think every corporation is part of some grand government conspiracy. While I do see some problems in this area, Corporations are a Capitalist venture. Either you believe in Capitalism or you don't. Which is it? Why is Trump evil to you? Do you have one verifiable instance of wrong-doing you can point to?
What I see coming is a person when disagreed with gets POd and when he doesnt get congress to carry out his wishes starts issuing executive orders just like Obozo does because Hes the Boss!. If thats the direction Conservatives want to continue towards, well then I guess Ill have to pull my name out of the conservative ranks, and call myself a Constitutionalist.
Trump can't go third party, but you can take your ball and go home right? Trump would be a selfish egotistical bastard to do it, but when you do it it's a time honored thing to do. Doesn't this seem like a double standard to you?
Up until this point, what you've seen coming has been rather humorous. Once again here, you're jumping to flights of fantasy. You accuse Trump of being certain to become Obama. Good grief.
All thats if hes not in this to split the Republican party so his friend Hillary is crowned queen.
Evidently you've led some sheltered life where you knew the few folks around you, and nobody of note every came to a celebration you put on. Everyone coming to your functions agreed with you politcially. No homosexuals ever showed up. It was just perfect little people just like you.
The point is, people running $9 billion dollar enterprises function on a level so different than ours, that we see evil in all that they do. The guy donates a sum that would be less than a cent to us, and you get instantly waleyed when you hear about it.
He donated to Democrats and Republicans. He worked in a states whose elected officials were mostly Democrats. He did not limit his donations to them.
He is out there right now hawking Conservatism. You can't stand it. Too bad.
122
posted on
08/11/2015 11:11:36 PM PDT
by
DoughtyOne
(If the fetus at one minute old is not alive, what is it?)
To: DoughtyOne
It’s obvious that you and I will never see eye to eye on this.
I don’t trust the guy. The last candidate that had flip flopped so much in his core beliefs was Mitt Romney, and we know how that turned out.
Ann Coulter was fawning all over Romney, and guess who she’s fawning all over this time.
I hope everything you believe about this guy is true. Nothing will make me happier than him being the one man savior of America.
My life is literally at stake in this election. (If you wish you can read my recent posts to find out why) and if he back tracks and goes back to his Single Payer Healthcare ideas, I won’t be around to argue with you in 2020.
In one week I’ve seen the guy change his position 3 times on funding PP. How in the world can I afford to trust him about anything.
As far as that sheltered life you accuse me of, I’ll put it to you this way, you couldn’t walk though the neighborhood I grew up in, unarmed next Saturday night, and live to tell anyone about it. I fought and scraped for everything I had, and now have lost all of it because of Obamacare.
Now I’m fighting for my life, and I wont trust it to a guy who has supported everything I hate up until a year ago.
123
posted on
08/11/2015 11:57:29 PM PDT
by
rikkir
(You can lead a horde to knowledge but you can't make them think. (TnkU ctdonath2))
To: jpsb
Mistake my ass
Trump is the only case I’ve ever seen to make Ailes and the Murdochs blink
124
posted on
08/12/2015 12:03:51 AM PDT
by
wardaddy
(My ears are bleeding....FOX ..all I hear are shrill high pitched whiney women taking over each other)
To: DoughtyOne
125
posted on
08/12/2015 12:05:01 AM PDT
by
wardaddy
(My ears are bleeding....FOX ..all I hear are shrill high pitched whiney women taking over each other)
To: silverleaf
You guys really kill me with that dreamy talk
It’s entertaining
Donald Trump runs for himself
Folks who ape what you just said don’t understand the reality
126
posted on
08/12/2015 12:08:08 AM PDT
by
wardaddy
(My ears are bleeding....FOX ..all I hear are shrill high pitched whiney women taking over each other)
To: grania
Hell yeah
You purty durn smart
Like me
127
posted on
08/12/2015 12:09:12 AM PDT
by
wardaddy
(My ears are bleeding....FOX ..all I hear are shrill high pitched whiney women taking over each other)
To: SeekAndFind
“telephone poll”? What is a telephone? I don’t know anyone who has one. Even businesses use VOIP, not landlines.
So, what is it? a mobile phone poll? a computer protocol poll? or did someone dig up (literally?) folks who have telephones and are “likely Republican voters”?
128
posted on
08/12/2015 12:47:07 AM PDT
by
womanvet
(Amnesty for aliens? Will the Roswell critters get to vote?)
To: wardaddy
129
posted on
08/12/2015 4:26:30 AM PDT
by
silverleaf
(Age takes a toll: Please have exact change)
To: silverleaf
If I’m wrong please remind me
I’m loud but will admit folly
130
posted on
08/12/2015 9:00:29 AM PDT
by
wardaddy
(My ears are bleeding....FOX ..all I hear are shrill high pitched whiney women taking over each other)
To: wardaddy
LOL, that didn’t please everyone.
131
posted on
08/12/2015 12:08:53 PM PDT
by
DoughtyOne
(If the fetus at one minute old is not alive, what is it?)
To: Arm_Bears
I think we’re so early in the process that support is pretty soft...IOW, the candidate with the most support is the one making favorable news. Trump, by definition, is always in the news.
132
posted on
08/12/2015 12:12:06 PM PDT
by
gogeo
(If you are Tea Party, the eGOP does not want you.)
To: rikkir
We believe in the same core principles. I believe we have to do something different to get past the GOPe favorites. I believe Trump can break through.
I don't trust the guy as much as you think, but what is the choice? Many primaries are open. Moderate Republicans with Democrats outnumber us. Can I trust that Cruz will prevail? No. I can't.
The treatment Trumps is getting right now, would be the treatment that Ted Cruz was getting, if it wasn't for Trump. Before the first debate, Cruz would have been attacked viciously. That didn't happen. Trump was in the way.
I've posted the list of those who detest Trump and are dead set opposed to him. It does read like a Leftist who's who. I still don't think he's the ideal guy on point, but what do I do about it? Accept the inevitable Bush?
Ann Coulter has lost her way. I don't see her as a postive or a negative anymore. I have to look at her postion on any given issue, because I no longer trust her. People talk about Trump only being for himself, and I think that pretty much covers Coulter too.
I would term my beliefs about Trump this way. I hope that with his talent to over-ride the press and party opposition, he implements decent policy and returns this nation to a better place. He could also do some things that would be implementing Leftist policy for them. I hope his core instincts prevent that.
He loves the nation. He understands the finer workings of the Capitalist system. That right there would open his eyes on many of the Leftist pitfalls. Is he a perfect candidate? I don't think so.
I am truly sorry to hear that you have some health issues. That saddens me. I do want your health care provisions to be solid. It would be my hope that Trump wants the government as far out of it as it can get. A robust private sector solution is what is needed.
I believe that his Planned Parenthood stance has been more unified that you think. I think the media played up his comments to make it seem like he was changing. He does not support abortion. He has probably been misled about the "good" things it does. It doesn't do good things. It can go away without women being hurt.
As someone said, the government shouldn't be funding Planned Parenthood at all, just on general Constitutional principles. I agree. That would be my concern with Trump. He doesn't know that. To be honest though, I haven't seen Ted Cruz address this angle of Planned Parenthood funding. I've seen him demand it because of the terrible revelations regarding abortion. I haven't seen it on Constitutional grounds. He may have said it. I haven't seen it. As a strong Constitutional scholar, he should have said it at some point. If not, that would be a little troubling too. I don't know if he has or not.
I know that you think he has supported everything you don't like. I should probably study the guy more and just how true that is. He was supporting George Bush in 1988.
LINK He met Quayle and thought he made a very sound and impressive presentation. I think he has held a lot more Conservative beliefs than folks give him credit for. People grow over time too.
(video link courtesy of Albion Wilde via Black Agnes)
You're not supporting the Vice President of Ronald Reagan if you're a Leftist. Trump was not nearly the Lefist folks think he was.
No matter what takes place in 2016, I hope your health care needs are met and that your health improves.
All the best to you.
133
posted on
08/12/2015 12:33:15 PM PDT
by
DoughtyOne
(If the fetus at one minute old is not alive, what is it?)
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