Russia would be able to occupy Baltics in two days- Czech general

ceske noviny ^ | 5/27/2015

[McGruff]

Russia would be able to occupy the Baltic countries in two days, a period during which NATO would not be capable of reacting adequately, Czech general Petr Pavel, who will take up the post of the NATO Military Committee head in June, said at a Prague conference on security affairs today.

Pavel warned that NATO´s political representation is incapable of reacting to a changed situation fast enough.

He said the measures Europe has taken in face of the threats of Russia and Islamic State are "embarrassingly ineffective."

"On the one hand, one of [NATO´s] disadvantages is its complex process of decision making. It is because NATO has 28 members who have to reach consensus on all conclusions," Pavel told CTK.

On the other hand, Russia is capable of making a decision very quickly, within a few hours, he said.

The length of NATO´s approval procedures on both the national and alliance levels far exceeds the deadlines within which its rapid reaction forces are capable of deployment, Pavel said.

The rapid reaction forces are able to intervene within two days, he said, adding that the political process must be put in harmony with the military forces´ deployment deadlines.

Russia would be able to occupy the Baltics within two days, during which NATO would be incapable of reacting to the situation. NATO would face the question of whether to start war, perhaps nuclear, against Russia over the occupied Baltics, Pavel said.

"From the technical point of view, if I consider how many forces Russia is able to deploy in the Baltics, the size of the Baltic countries and the density of forces on their territories, the Baltics could really be occupied in a couple of days," Pavel told CTK later today.

"A different question is how effective the deterrence element, represented by NATO´s Article 5 and its nuclear component, would be in relation to Russia," Pavel said.

He also criticised shortcomings in NATO´s sharing of intelligence information and the absence of NATO´s own intelligence network.

Pavel´s view was opposed by Jiri Sedivy, Czech ambassador to NATO, who said NATO´s intelligence system is of a high quality.

Sedivy said Russia would probably be able to occupy Kiev, for example, within two days. However, the question is whether it would have a sufficient logistic support afterwards, he said.

Former Czech chief-of-staff Jiri Sedivy, whose name is identical with the above ambassador´s, said Russia could not win a war with NATO and it is aware of this.

Nevertheless, Russia could try to destabilise society, Sedivy said, pointing out the demonstrable Russian propaganda that accompanied the previous Czech debate on whether to enable the installation of a U.S. missile defence radar near Prague, and the recent crossing of the Czech Republic by a U.S. military convoy.

Sedivy said he would welcome it if the state had an instrument to control the information environment.

[McGruff]

He's probably right.

[AppyPappy]

The Baltics might take exception to the occupation.

[KC_Lion]

Seven Days to The River Rhine

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Days_to_the_River_Rhine

[corlorde]

The bigger question is, can Russia sustain operations for any length of time? More recent history tells us the answer is no.

[McGruff]

Probably the reason Russia hasn’t invaded the rest of Ukraine. But, who would want it?

[armydawg505]

The way to ensure that does not happen is to pre position American and other NATO troops and equipment in the Baltics and Poland.

[grania]

The way to insure that this wouldn't happen is for those countries to stop whining to the US and other NATO countries to protect them, and defend themselves. We have enough of our own problems from invasion and non-existant borders.

A country that can't or won't defend itself is not going to survive.

[buckalfa]

"The bigger question is, can Russia sustain operations for any length of time? More recent history tells us the answer is no.'

You are correct concerning Russia's logistical abilities. The real question though would Putin need to sustain an offensive operation? With our current leadership on both sides of the aisle, would the US (NATO) even begin to fulfill their treaty obligations of mutual defense other than sending a strongly worded letter to the Kremlin?

[molson209]

Putin will have to greatly expand his Hide Russia’s Dead Program

[Old Teufel Hunden]

"The way to insure that this wouldn't happen is for those countries to stop whining to the US and other NATO countries to protect them, and defend themselves. We have enough of our own problems from invasion and non-existant borders."

Ummmm.... you realize that the Baltic States are part of NATO and that we are obligated by treaty to defend them. An attack on one NATO member is an attack on all NATO members. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, therefore we had no treaty obligations to defend them. However, they are trying to turn towards Western Europe so therefore it is in our national interests to assist them and there were promises made to them that in order to give up their nukes in the 90's they would be afforded protection by NATO countries.

[armydawg505]

The Baltic Countries and Poland are in NATO and we are bound by treaty to defend them. Not living up to our NATO obligations would destroy every alliance we have and empower Russia, China and Iran to untold adventures.

[grania]

Of course I know those countries are in NATO. What I’m saying is the US and most European nations aren’t even defending our own borders from invasion. Why would any country assume they’d defend them? I repeat, if a country wants to be safe in the horrible times we live in, they should stop whining and depending on treaties, and defend themselves!

[Old Teufel Hunden]

You just said: "Of course I know those countries are in NATO."

This is what you previously said: "The way to insure that this wouldn't happen is for those countries to stop whining to the US and other NATO countries to protect them, and defend themselves."

By saying those countries (implying the Baltics) stop whining to the U.S. and other NATO countries (as if they are outside of NATO) it is strongly implying that the rest of Europe not in NATO should stop whining to NATO and defend themselves. In other words, implying the Baltics aren't in NATO. If you truly did know that the Baltics were in NATO, then I'm dying to know what you think the point of having NATO is? It is a treaty consisting of countries who will pool their militaries to come to a common defense of one another. If we are not going to defend one another when we are attacked, what is the point of having NATO? Again, I state, if the Baltics are attacked, we are bound by treaty (as is the rest of NATO) to defend them. If you accept that, what are you complaining about?

[grania]

There is no point in NATO for a country such as the US which will not even defend our own borders from invasion. Fifty years after WW2, European countries should figure out how to defend themselves.

Haven't you noticed? Europe is being over-run by invaders from the Mideast and Africa. There won't be anything left to defend if the EU doesn't get its act together.

[Old Teufel Hunden]

"There is no point in NATO for a country such as the US which will not even defend our own borders from invasion. Fifty years after WW2, European countries should figure out how to defend themselves."

The first point you make you are conflagurating two separate issues. The second point I am somewhat in agreement with you. First off, I still think NATO is a valid organization because though we have no Soviet Union and her satellites as in the cold war, we have an agressive Russia. However, the rest of the NATO members (save perhaps Poland) are not living up to their treaty obligations. They are not spending 2% of their GDP on defense. The rest of Europe does need to take a more active part in defending themselves. We need to be pulling more of our Army out of Western Europe and Western Europe's armies need to take that burden up. We should be supporting them with our Air and Naval power. We still need those bases IMO.

[dmz]

And in doing so, softens up elsewhere for some yet to be identified country to exploit. That’s a lot of border Putin has to cover.