Posted on 03/17/2015 6:48:47 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
No matter whom Republicans nominate to face Hillary Rodham Clinton in November 2016, that candidate will start at a disadvantage. It’s not polling, Clinton’s deep résumé or improving state of the economy. It’s the electoral college.
Yes, the somewhat arcane — yet remarkably durable — way in which presidential elections are decided tilts toward Democrats in 2016, as documented by nonpartisan political handicapper Nathan Gonzales in a recent edition of the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report.
Gonzales notes that if you add up all of the states that are either “safe” for the eventual Democratic nominee or “favor” that nominee, you get 217 electoral votes. (A candidate needs to win 270 to be elected president.) Do the same for states safe or favoring the Republican standard-bearer, per Gonzales’s rankings, and you get just 191 electoral votes.
That Democratic advantage becomes even more pronounced if you add to the party’s total the states that “lean” Democratic, according to Gonzales. Put Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), Iowa (6) and Nevada (6) into Democratic column and the party’s electoral vote count surges to 249 — just 21 votes short of winning a third straight presidential race. (Gonzales doesn’t rate any states as “lean Republican.”)
Such a scenario is decidedly realistic given that President Obama not only won all three of those “lean” Democratic states in 2008 and 2012 but that he did so by an average of eight points in Iowa and nine points in Nevada. And, the last Republican nominee to carry Pennsylvania was George H.W. Bush, way back in 1988.
Gonzales’s analysis, which some will dismiss as premature but I applaud (it’s never too early!), reaffirms one of the most important — and undercovered — story lines in presidential politics in the past decade: the increasing Democratic dominance in the electoral college.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Clinton’s deep résumé...
...or improving state of the economy.
?????????
Apparently the midterm never happened.
Pray America is waking
I’m hoping it will get even harder and give us a fighting chance in Michigan. No more letting Detroit and Flint decide.
House Bill 4310: Pro-rate Michigan’s electoral college presidential votes
Introduced by Rep. Cindy Gamrat (R) on March 5, 2015, to require that at political party conventions one presidential elector from each congressional district and two electors at large be chosen. The elector ultimately chose for each district would the one whose party’s candidate for president won in that congressional district. The at-large candidates elected would be, as now, those who belonged to the political party whose presidential candidate won statewide. This would end the current “winner take all” system.
http://www.michiganvotes.org/Legislation.aspx?ID=168841
Senate Bill 197: Pro-rate Michigan’s electoral college presidential votes
Introduced by Sen. Dave Hildenbrand (R) on March 11, 2015, to end the current winner-take-all system of allocating Michigan’s presidential electors, and instead pro-rate the state’s electoral college votes on the basis of the state’s popular vote totals.
http://www.michiganvotes.org/Legislation.aspx?ID=168894
RE: Apparently the midterm never happened.
Well can’t we say the same thing of the Republican landslide in 2010?
Look what happened in 2012...
Dreaming. On a deluded scale, IMO. The beast is toast and this roundabout way of saying electoral statistics are behind her is another way of saying “squirrel”.
They cannot argue about nearly anything this witch has done, right on up through this latest “18 minutes” equivalent. So they fall back on cheerleading: “Hey, we still got it - we can win! We have the statistics and the college!” Horsesh!t
What the story doesn’t tell you is voter fatigue with the Democrats - with the unpopular Obama Administration after 8 years in power.
Historically, its tough to win a third term. G.W Bush pulled it off in 1988 both because of President Reagan’s popularity and the Democrats nominated an absolutely unlikable, wooden candidate.
Hillary is closely identified with Obama and she has her share of problems. Her age, lack of a record, and scandals just weigh against her.
On the other side, the GOP has a deep bench of formidable candidates. The Democrats have no one with the name recognition Hillary brings to the table.
If for some reason she can’t run, they face steep odds in retaining the White House in 2016.
5,000,000 more dim voters to the polls?
There’s most definitely a huge initial EC advantage for the dems. They go into any modern presidential election with a 250+ EV head start. The key is whether the GOP can hold that firewall. If VA-CO or FL fall again, the election goes to the democrat.
Republicans should give up now and not even run a candidate. Her Thighness Medusa is enevitable.
It’s hard to see a road to a GOP victory that doesn’t go through FL, OH and one of either VA or CO. McDonnell screwed up VA. Fortunately, with a good candidate, FL and OH are well within reach.
In terms of state party apparatus, the GOP is in good shape as far as control of legislatures and governorships.
Clearly the writer lives in some parallel universe.
Would be sweet if a conservative ran in the sheep’s clothing of being a Democrat, then once voted in, would throw off the wool and actually preside as a conservative.
I know,,dreaming.
Do away with elections, analyst activists have reached consensus that Hillary (or whoever the DNC seats) will win.
Of course, Democrats have been trying to do away with the electoral college for years (and a number of states are trying to throw their EC votes to whoever is tallied with the national popular vote).
Al Gore Jr. was tallied with 0.51% majority popular vote. Without a full recount and actual tally of the absentee ballots (they weren’t all counted if the state outcome would not change; even Florida’s contested military ballots were approved by the Florida Supremes yet not included in Harris’ state tally), we will never ‘know’ who wins such a proverbial coin toss that lands on the edge.
And for the record, the election eve broadcast of Bush’s decades old DWI charge did cost him measurable votes so if Gore ‘won’ anything it was because of collusion with Democrat media tactics.
Yeah, look at that -- the GOP nominated McCain Jr./Obama's shadow, the godfather of O-Care and couldn't get the base to turn out.
Yeah - the Dems have opened the borders and let in a flood of illegals.
That gives blue states a higher population (remember the census counts everyone, not just citizens).
Don’t count Pennsylvania yet.
After two years of Tom Wolf proposing to raise every tax under the sun, voters here may experience projectile vomiting when you say the word “Democrat”.
“Well can’t we say the same thing of the Republican landslide in 2010?
Look what happened in 2012...”
Exactly. 2010 and 2012 (and 2014) were entirely predictable. Right now, the GOP has a pretty strong structural advantage in the House, the Dems have a pretty strong structural advantage in the Electoral College, and the Senate is pretty much even (I.e., depends on which seats are up in a given year, and whether the year is a Presidential year or a midterm).
Somebody had to write a book to explain that Demon Rats begin with an electoral college advantage?
Really?
That can be ‘splained on one sheet of paper, Lucy.
That would put Romney in the lead--though not at a win.
Now, if I recall correctly, in Nebraska and Maine, the OTHER two electoral votes go to the "overall" statewide winner.
Romney won 24 states in 2012, which would have given him 48 more electoral votes if the Nebraska/Maine model were followed.
226+48=274 Electoral votes.
Valerie's man-child was able to seize 26 states plus the DC region. That would net her team 55 EVs.
209+55=264.
Romney would be the one working to rebuild America, instead of Hussein doing Val's bidding in destroying the republic.
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