There’s most definitely a huge initial EC advantage for the dems. They go into any modern presidential election with a 250+ EV head start. The key is whether the GOP can hold that firewall. If VA-CO or FL fall again, the election goes to the democrat.
It’s hard to see a road to a GOP victory that doesn’t go through FL, OH and one of either VA or CO. McDonnell screwed up VA. Fortunately, with a good candidate, FL and OH are well within reach.
In terms of state party apparatus, the GOP is in good shape as far as control of legislatures and governorships.