Russia This Week: All the Strange Things Going on in Moscow

At week’s end, we still do not know more about the whereabouts of President Vladimir Putin than we did at the start of the week, when it first began to be noticed that he had not been seen in public since March 5.

The last two weeks since the murder of opposition Boris Nemtsov on February 27 have brought not only widely disparate theories of the case, rapid arrest of the suspects, and reversals in their testimony under claims of torture, confirmed by some human rights activists although disputed by others close to the government. There have also been other upheavals in Russia that indicate Nemtsov’s murder may have touched off or even come about as a clash of different forces within Putin’s regime. Putin has not been reliably verified as having been seen in public since March 5 when he was visited by Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and some Russian mothers who taped a special program with him for International Women’s day aired later March 8. The stills and videos shown by Kremlin.ru this week of meetings with governors may have been taken last week, according to various sources. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan spoke to Putin on the phone, which has been confirmed, and supposedly Putin had a meeting at his residence in Novo-Ogaryovo today with the Supreme Court chairman, but this could not be confirmed.

While Russia analysts such as Robert Coalson (“Three Scenarios for a Succession“), Tom Nichols (“If Putin Dies”), Paul Goble (“Interregnum“) and Anders Aslund have theorized that some kind of change of government could be coming with Putin ill or sidelined, they say no one has any proof and can only go by their instincts as old Kremlinologists and wait for the story to unfold. Whether the ruler who comes after Putin would be from “the party of war” or the “party of peace” or neither, definitively, there is not likely to be any immediate relief from the war in Ukraine, as fighting continues with serious encroachment on the area north of the sea port of Mariupol, as our Ukraine Live blog has reported.

Here’s a list of all the developments we think are significant — or just odd — some of them unverified reports — to see if the pieces can be fit together:

- On February 27, Boris Nemtsov was murdered two days before he was to lead a big opposition march against the war in Ukraine and Putin's anti-crisis program.

-Putin assigned heads of law-enforcement to take personal control; he did not take personal control, a misunderstanding cleared up February 28 by spokesman Dmitry Peskov

- On March 1, the originally-scheduled anti-war march was converted into a memorial march; many participants came who said they wouldn't have taken part in the original event but felt that "a line should be drawn" against political murders.

-A wide variety of theories were put out by authorities but the first and lasting one was a claim that the murderers were Islamists angered by the cartoons of Charlie Hebdo, whose journalists were killed in a terrorist attack in January.

- Nemtsov's Ukrainian companion Anna Duritskaya said she did not see the murderers; she was kept under house arrest and interrogated for several days. She returned to Kiev where she received death threats.

- A snowplow driver was first suspected, although Duritskaya said she went to him for help; he turned out to have large debts.

- A Caucasian man named Aslan Alkhanov was claimed to be found to have committed suicide in the suburb of Klyonskoye in New Moscow; he was tied to the Nemtsov murder by one conspiracy site, which claimed Ukrainian Right Sector leader Dmitro Yarosh commissioned the hit through him. No evidence that he existed has been found.

- Investigators said a single mother of three -- also coincidentally in Klyonskoye -- turned out to be the original owner of the car purchased by the Chechen suspects who never re-registered it.

- On the basis of the discovery of this car, said to be the getaway car identified through on-site video and traffic patrol surveillance, within 7 days, 6 suspects were seized, all Chechens, and relatives: Zaur Dadayev, Anzor Gubashev, Shagid Gubashev,

- Vesti aired a program with an interview of the neighbor of the house where the Chechens were living outside Moscow; he said they had frequent fights and he had complained to police. Shortly before the murder, they went to visit relatives in Ingushetia.

- These Chechens had previously racked up numerous parking and speeding tickets; the car was also seen on surveillance cameras on Malaya Ordnyka, the street where Nemtsov lived.

- One suspect, Beslan Shavanov, was blown up by a grenade when the police came to his door March 7.

- Two of these suspects Zaur Dadayev and Beslan Shavanov, were officers in the Sever Brigade of the Chechen Interior Ministry troops; Dadayev reportedly went on leave for 30 days January 27, simultaneously submitting his resignation, which went into effect the day before the murder. He was said to be the main suspect in the case.

- Officials said there were "no contractors" and Dadayev, the triggerman, was both the organizer and perpetrator, proven by "forensic evidence," although investigators said they had to find the gun and tie it to Dadayev.

- Although on March 1, Ramzan Kadyrov blamed Western intelligence agencies, the next week he said the suspects were heroes and devout Muslims.

- The clash between the FSB's characterization of Dadayev as "an accused murderer" and Kadyrov's characterization of him as "a brave warrior" meant that something had to give.

- Independent media and bloggers speculated that there was a war between the FSB and Kadyrov; Novaya Gazeta published an investigative piece that pointed toward the Delimkhanov family; Adam Delimkhanov, a senator in the Federation Council who is on the US sanctions list and is suspected of masterminding the murder of former Chechen warlord and Russian commander Sulim Yamadayev, had a cousin

- Members of the Public Monitoring Commission visited the defendants in detention in the FSB's Lefortovo Prison; they found signs of bruises and scratches and Dadayev told them he was beaten, a sack was put over his head and he was brought this way to Moscow.

- On the night of March, the human rights monitors got visits to their home from investigators who threatened them with prosecution; the next day the Investigative Committee published a notice threatening them with prosecution for "obstruction of justice."

- That day, the head of the Public Monitoring Mission also refuted the claims of torture, as did Dadayev's lawyer.

- The family of Dadayev was discovered to have received a compensation from the Russian government after a successful lawsuit at the European Court of Human Rights for human rights violation during the first Chechen war.

- Komsomolskaya Pravda published an interview March 13 with an anonymous FSB official who says Adam Osmayev, a pro-Kiev and anti-Moscow Chechen, is behind the murder of Nemtsov, and that Dadayev was working for him.

- Kavkaz Center, the web site of the Caucasian Emirate terrorist group, has published claims about upheavals in the administration of Kadyrov. Magomed Daudov, Kadyrov's chief of staff, whose call sign is "Lord," has "fallen ill" and gone to his native village of Geldygen. Lord forced the sister of Nemtsov's killer Dadayev to give testimony against Alibek Delimkhanov, brother of Federation Council Sen. Adam Delimkhanov, head of the Sever unit where Dadayev served as deputy commander. The sister claims Alibek was directly involved in Nemtsov's murder. (Summary in Russian by Oleg Kashin here.)

- Putin reportedly held a meeting on March 13 with Supreme Court chairman Vyacheslav Lebedev at his residence in Novo-Ogoryova; as with previous meetings this weeks there are concerns that a video of the meeting could have been taped in advance.

- If Putin were contemplating discussing any issues about his succession it would not likely be with the Supreme Court chairman but the Constitutional Court chairman.

- Swiss tabloids reported that a baby was born to Alina Kabayeva, said to be Putin's mistress. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denies a baby was born to Putin.

- Pictures were also disseminated of construction work on Red Square -- possibly bleachers for a celebration of the annexation of Crimea March 16.

- Maj. Gen. Igor Krasnov, special cases investigator known for solving crimes involving Russian ultranationalists, was put in charge of the case but is not making statements to the press.

- Investigative Committee head Aleksandr Bastrykin has made several statements on the Nemtsov case but is not the only one in charge, and has not made any announcements this week.

-Bastrykin reprinted Kommersant and Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports on the web site, thereby indicating the newspaper accounts of the murder he had approved.

-The Investigative Committee opened a case for "incitement of war" against retired US general Robert Scales who suggested more Russians should be killed to stop the war in Ukraine, on a Fox News talk show.

- On March 12, Aleksandr Khoroshavin, governor of Sakhalin Region was charged with receiving more than $5.6 million in bribes through Andrei Ikramov in the form of kickbacks of 6% of contracts for the Sakhalin company Energostroi.

- Aleksandr Bortnikov, head of the Federal Security Service (FSB) made a trip to Washington, DC February 19-20 to attend a conference "Countering Violent Extremism" and gave a presentation claiming 1,700 people from Russia have left to fight in Syria and Iraq; this number is not seen to have a basis.

- Bortnikov made the announcement of the arrest of the suspects and a number of subsequent statements about the Nemtsov investigation and appears to take the lead in the case.

- Bortnikov traveled to Crimea March 10 for a meeting of the National Anti-Terrorist Committee.

- Putin said at the annual meeting of the Interior Ministry on March 4 that there should be "no more political murders" -- but many missed the rest of his speech in which he called for a crackdown on "street crime" and ordered enhanced volunteer police auxiliaries called druzhinniki to be established as in the Soviet era.

- Sources say Vladimir Kolokoltsev announces his resignation at the Interior Ministry annual meeting, to take effect in late March.

- Persistent rumors spread by bots on Twitter that Gen. Igor Zolotov, commander-in-chief of the Interior Ministry's forces, has been murdered. A search of his name reveals that there are hundreds of identical tweets from new or little-used or strange accounts. This technique has often been used this year to intimidate people. Translation: they're writing that Gen. Zolotov, who had Putin's entire personal guard under his subordination, has been murdered.

- Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu traveled to Crimea on March 10 to review the troops.

- Where is Shoigu now? There are no reports of his whereabouts in the last two days.

- The Defense Ministry denied that Cossacks would hunt down men of draft age who shirked their military duty. Earlier Sergei Shishkin, head of the Southeast Cossack's Association said 1,400 men were available to hunt draft dodgers.

- A Ukrainian POW captured at the battle in Krasny Partizan released by fighters from the "Donetsk People's Republic" said that he was visited by a Russian soldier while in captivity.

- How Kadyrov spent his week - attending, Security Council meeting in Pyatigorsk, swearing loyalty to Putin, publishing picture of himself arm-in-arm with Putin - and practicing at a firing range.

- Kadyrov had nothing more to say about the Nemtsov investigation after March 8.

- Kadyrov convened MVD leaders March 13 and urged everyone to rally around Putin against the intrigues and assaults of the West.

- Kadyrov eported by Kavkaz Center, site associated with terrorist group Caucasus Emirate, to be in a panic because he can't reach Putin and has been told Putin is sick. See summary in Russian by Oleg Kashin.

- Kadyrov's chief of staff, whose call-sign is "Lord," Magomet Daudad, has "fallen ill" and gone to his native village of Geldygen. Lord forced the sister of Zaur Dadayev, suspected to be Nemtsov's killer to give testimony against Alibek Delimkhanov, brother of Federation Council Sen. Adam Delimkhanov, head of the Sever unit where Dadayev served as deputy commander. The sister claims Alibek was directly involved in Nemtsov's murder.

-- A woman came forward who had not spoken at the time saying she saw the rocket fired at MH17. Andrei Purgin said the Russian-backed militants "did not have" such an anti-aircraft weapon, forgetting that Russian state media and pro-government news site reported the rebels' possession of the Buks on July 13 as well as July 17, and their initial bragging about the downing thinking it was a Ukrainian cargo plane.

- State TV stopped using the term "Novorossiya" and now says "Donbass and Lugansk Regions"; as recently as March 9, premier propagandist Dmitry Kiselyev used the term "Novorossiya" in his weekly show Vesti.

- Tent kiosks collecting money "for Donbass people" near metro stops and other public places were ordered closed.

- An assassination attempt was made March 7 on Aleksei Mozgovoy head of the Prizrak (Ghost) Battalion. Mozgovoy has said in the past he didn't whish to consolidate his battalion within with one Novorossiya army.

- Col. Igor Strelkov has not had any new interviews in weeks since one with Nikolai Starikov, nor has Denis Pushilin; Igor Bezler long since disappeared from the scene as has Aleksandr Borodai; Andrei Purgin is the only one quoted this week, denying that Russian-backed militants could reach MH17 with their weapons.

- In a document leaked by Novaya Gazeta, Oligarch and Russian Orthodox philanthropist Konstantin Malofeyev was identified in a group close to the Kremlin that drafted a scenario to take over Crimea and the Donbass.

- Malofeyev had no comment about the leaked document other than to threaten to sue Novaya Gazeta.

- Konstantin Malofeyev is first rumored to have a search of his home and office, then denies it.

- His partner says he has no comment about reports that he, too, was searched because he is under a non-disclosure agreement.

- Malofeyev then paid off the disputed $200 million evidently to close the case of the companies related to Rostelekom.

- Russian recruits that appeared bound for Ukraine spotted in Rostov, although there is a Donetsk, Russia and this could be a Russia-only bus.

- TV Rain reports on a send-off of fresh volunteers from Yekaterinburg to Donbass with prayers and Cossack rituals Helicopter

- As RFE/RL describes, State TV tried to square the circle of how Boris Nemtsov was supposed to be an insignificant figure or a has-been from the 1990s, yet justify saturation coverage of his death and the search for the murderer.

- TV1 broadcast Putin's reported meeting March 13 with Supreme Court chair Vyacheslav Lebedev and news of Public Opinion Research Center poll that Putin's approval rating had increased to 88%.

- Novaya Gazeta published an interview by Elena Kostyuchenko with a Buryat man, Dorzhi Batomunkuyev, 19, a tank driver who suffered burns of his face and body and other injuries in the battle of Debaltsevo. He was first recruited into the regular army then signed a contract and was sent to Ukraine. The dramatic photo and picture is a kind of Russian Johnny Got His Gun, drawing over 1.6 million views.

- Novaya Gazeta's editor-in-chief Dmitry Muratov announced that the newspaper edition will be suspended in May and hints the online version is also in trouble, with one shareholder "trying to put us out of business."

- Moscow Times publishes the longest piece in its history about the media's abdication of its responsibility to inform the public, going back to the Yeltsin era, but particularly in the recent years of the Putin reign.

- Leonid Bershidsky, writer for Bloomberg, who has left Russia to live in the West, called Putin "a dictator."

- Oleg Buzin, Ukrainian journalist, resigned from Segodnya complaining of Ukrainian censorship and commissioned propaganda articles.

-Bastrykin reprinted Kommersant and Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports on the web site; other news sites' articles, both state and independent, are not printed.

- Russkiy Monitor, a news site that has published various theories about Putin's illnesses suffered a DDoS attack

A tweet by Konstantin Remchukov, editor-in-chief of Nezavisimaya Gazeta was heard around the world.

Translation: At the Bolshoi Theater at the premier of the ballet HAMLET, I was taken aside (and today is a full house) and told that supposedly tomorrow they will dismiss Sechin.

Igor Sechin, head of Rosneft, a hard-liner on Western sanction lists over the war in Ukraine, has reportedly been criticized lately.

Few noticed Zemchukov's previous tweet, which was how the new Hamlet in Moscow, staged by a Moldovan, had "little green men" marching on stage with Kalashnikovs, invoking "Novorossiya."

Translation: Ballet Hamlet finished with police little green men coming out on stage with Kalashnikovs.

The most promise pro-Kremlin Twitter accounts were fairly subdued about Putin's absence.

- @SurkovRussia which the real Vladislav Surkov has claimed is not his (but which sounds like him) has just had a few tweets on Putin's absence and is focused on ridiculing those asking about him.

- Natalya Poklonskaya (npoklonskaya), a fan account for the Crimean prosecutor, has mocked Ukrainians and Russian opposition who say they want to get rid of Putin but are now looking for him.

- The Kremlin troll farm employees in St. Petersburg were instructed to move from the Ukrainian themes they have been flogging for a year to the topic of Boris Nemtsov's murder, and spinning it as a false-flag operation of Western intelligence agencies, etc.

- Ya Russkiy Okkupant (I'm a Russian Occupant), a viral video with now over 5 million views was uploaded to YouTube February 27. It justifies Russian occupation of neighboring countries which were the non-Russian republics of the Soviet Union, for example implying that where once the Soviet occupation brought Estonia the radio electronics industry, now Estonians are cleaning toilets in the EU; where once Soviet occupation brought Central Asia the oil and gas and space industries, now Kazakhs have to work construction for their occupier, etc.

- The trailer for a new movie timed for the anniversary of the forced annexation of the Crimea, Homeward Bound: Road to the Motherland was released March 9, in which Putin said the Kremlin tracked former president Viktor Yanukovych as he fled Ukraine and helped him "by land, sea, and air" to escape. - An amateur video of a helicopter landing at the new Defense Ministry communications center and other reports of increased helicopter activity brought fear of a coup.

- Meanwhile, for some reason, the Russian Embassy in London received Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, president of the republic of Kalmykia.

- Aleksandr Zakharchenko says "God loves a trinity" and there should be three "kettles" -- first there was the Ilovaisk kettle from August-September 2014; then there was the Debaltsevo Kettle from mid-January to February 18, when Ukrainian forces were forced to withdrawal; next will be the Mariupol Kettle.

- Federal Corrections Service asked to put Alexey Navalny in jail to serve his suspended sentence as he has violated terms of patrol with repeat offenses, i.e. unauthorized pickets and leafletting.

- Charges were dismissed against Svetlana Davydova, mother of 7 charged with "treason" for reporting troops movements to the Ukrainain Embassy in Moscow.

- Memorial Society Human Rights Center lost its appeal of "foreign agent" status.

I have been posting for months that the 40 or so Oligrachs Putey reports to cannot be very happy with his misadventure in the Ukraine or the disarray of the ruble. These guys are all about show me the money.

IMO Putin is hiding out or drank the polonium tea. My money is on they are ousting Putin either dead or alive. There is definitely some kind of turf war going on.

Do you think his successor will be more anti- or pro-Muslim?

I’m gettin’ kinda nervous here.

I disagree with the writer’s rate of fire of the Makarov. It sounds way too slow.

I’m fairly certain I could cycle at least 8-10 rounds out of my CZ82 in 4-1/2 seconds. They are somewhat similar.

Russian narratives always must contain intrigues committed by blood relatives of the principals
Where Is Putin ? NY Post says here
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3267744/posts

Russian Federation Rumor: March 14, 2015

BELIEVE, HOPE, WAITING FOR THE DENOUEMENT
Next week probably will be the key. In Moscow the RF from remote areas began to deploy special forces troops. Probably, the country began a military coup. I recall that a year ago on March 16 in Crimea held a “referendum” at gunpoint “green men”, and on March 18 signed an interstate agreement on the adoption of the Crimea and Sevastopol to Russia. One good turn deserves another. I think it was during these celebrations we will see a gradual migration hot spots with Ukraine and the territory of the Russian Federation.

They say that tonight in Moscow no longer calm, gunfire sounded.
This does not mean that we can relax. On the contrary, everything is just beginning in the camp of the enemy. Night especially dark before the dawn of ...

These could be war preperations...

The Chinese president has rebuffed his security teams and there is a shakeup in the Chinese Politboro happening right now as we speak. Also the leader of Iran has not been seen for over two weeks.

I just received this from Ukraine: “What to look for: On Monday Putin is supposed to reappear with Draconian laws and big government change. If not, very good: hardliner loss.”

I suspect the former. I also suspect that Putin did communicate with the leaders of Kazakhstan and Belarus, but not face to face. He also likely communicated with Xi Jinping. But we will find out.

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