Posted on 02/15/2015 10:37:24 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
The debut edition of our leader board of the Republicans most likely to win the presidential nomination, based on what we know now, shows the field may not be as big as most people think.
1) JEB BUSH (age 62, to Hillary’s 67): He’s got money, momentum, Florida, big ideas. His surprise, early signal that he’s running is THE PLAY OF THE CAMPAIGN so far — pushing OUT Mitt and perhaps Christie by freezing or stealing their money and talent. Jeb will be first Republican to $100 million by a mile. Now, watch for the use of overwhelming force to lock up more talent, donors and public endorsements. His big unknown: actual voters. A story leading the Tampa Bay Times today says Iowa “looks hostile,” in part because voters actually matter.
2) GOV. SCOTT WALKER (age 47): He’s got a Wisconsin winning streak, union-bashing, newness and ambition. His boffo performance at the Iowa Freedom Summit got the chattering class to notice. Now, watch for him to position himself as conservative Midwest savior, snuggled between Jeb’s moderation and Cruz’s rigidity. After CPAC (a week and four days from now), Walker plans rat-a-rat trips to the three earliest states – Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina – within a month.
3) SEN. MARCO RUBIO (age 43): The Floridian is winning fans among future-thinking conservatives, especially younger ones. He’s buffing up on foreign policy and could plausibly be the most sophisticated national-security thinker in the field (grading on a curve, of course). He’s blowing off Senate votes to raise coin and planning trips to Iowa and New Hampshire. And in private, his aides are making clear his relationship with Bush wouldn’t be a deterrent. Remains Playbook’s top pick for veep under the “no two white dudes on a ticket” rule.
4) SEN. RAND PAUL (age 52): He’s got creativity, social-media savvy, an early-state organization, and the capacity to surprise. SCOOP: Rand plans to continue his effort to reach beyond traditional GOP audiences with an upcoming appearance at a historically black college (he’s still nailing down location). Now, watch to see if he can truly upend what we know about the GOP electorate — and Rand and his family.
5) SEN. TED CRUZ (age 44): His right-wing lingo and street cred could propel him to an Iowa win, which would rattle the GOP establishment and ignite a media frenzy. He heads to Florida on Friday, venturing onto Jeb/Marco turf, as Rand did yesterday. Cruz is trying to look more serious and less scary by emphasizing national security – he did fine last Sunday in satellite interviews from the Munich Security Conference with George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s “This Week,” and Dana Bash on CNN’s “State of the Union.” Don’t discount how much true-believers like Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) like the guy.
THE REST: Gov. Chris Christie (age 52) was #5 when we first kicked around this list two weeks ago. Christie has candor, a winning record, raw ambition and some big donors. But Jeb’s fundraising juggernaut has squeezed Christie much worse than top Republicans had expected. And Christie’s London trip, where the biggest stories were about his stance on vaccines and his unwillingness to answer a question about ISIS, showed that the tough-guy shtick needs more work. Our leader board, of course, will change in radical ways in the weeks ahead, especially if another governor — John Kasich of Ohio, Mike Pence of Indiana — gets serious.
WHAT’D WE MISS? Tweet your thoughts and pushback to @mikeallen, or write us at mallen@politico.com.
Ted Cruz & Scott Walker are the only two worth anything, the rest are a waste of time & space.
IMO, no one else matters. All the others just add to the political white noise.
I agree!
Walker is well known by his election wins and all the publicity that came from them. But Cruz is not as well known and he needs to find a way to be heard.
Ted Cruz is the only guy that might not sell us out on amnesty. Most of the rest have already declared their support for “Comprehensive Screwing Of Americans”.
Most likely to win? Paul?
Not a chance. His percent of support is likely to remain about the same and cause trouble until he drops out, but there’s about zero chance his support can increase significantly.
reverse the field
Cluelessness...what to expect from Politico.
Bush, Rubio, and Christie are completely and totally unacceptable. The democrat will carry my state in any case, but I will not vote for a democrat pretending to be republican under any circumstances.
Walker worries me on Amnesty, and I’m not sure I would trust any claims that his views had “evolved” toward supporting the rule of law. Any candidate who thinks criminals should be rewarded for their crimes is a non-starter for my vote.
Rand Paul has a crazy father, more than nutty enough that I am not thrilled with the idea of someone raised by Ron Paul, and I’m not sure about Rand in any case. His one virtue is that I trust him. He’s likely to spout off with things I’ll hate, and he will mean them. On the good side, he will spout off with things I love, and he will mean those too.
And then there is Ted Cruz. He may (or may not) tack toward the center in terms of political posturing. In his case, I’m okay with that. I will not believe he means it any more than I believed the rare comments from Obama that were anywhere short of virulently anti-American. Cruz may portray himself as moderate to get elected, but his priorities will be governing conservatively and constitutionally, and he’s got my vote for that reason.
...and S**t can candidtes #1, 3 and 4.
He’s pretty well known frankly.
BUT to your point: Once talk radio and most internet sites (conservative) and say, Breitbart come out in support of Cruz (I think it will happen) - that will take care of itself.
A President Bush would continue the momentum and direction of the Obama Sultanate but Jeb is not yet a Moslem, I think. Perhaps he will convert.
I see Rubio as a strong potential VP candidate more than anything. Young, fairly charismatic, Latino, from a swing state the GOP has narrowly lost a couple of times. It’s way too soon for him to get the top of the ticket, though.
Walker is the guy who can carry the day.
Any Conservative will win the right and lose the left, so that leaves the the middle. A Conservative woman could win the middle, but more for being a woman than a Conservative.
To those who want to blast me for promoting identity politics, I don't like it either, but that's where we are.
IMHO.
Bump!
Come on guys! The best GOP candidate is Mike Pence. Check him out.
Bush because he has the finances and organization.
Walker because he has shown the best ability to govern.
Cruz because he is the best communicator.
I personally favor Cruz even though Walker is more qualified. However, I think the big money and the GOPe will prevail barring any major gaffes from Bush.
Oh no! Not another Bush!
Is this one going to wear a crown now that the family name has been established?
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