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GOP 2016: Playbook's Top 5 most likely to win - Our 1st ranking of the Republican presidential race
The Politico ^ | February 15, 2015 | Mike Allen

Posted on 02/15/2015 10:37:24 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

The debut edition of our leader board of the Republicans most likely to win the presidential nomination, based on what we know now, shows the field may not be as big as most people think.

1) JEB BUSH (age 62, to Hillary’s 67): He’s got money, momentum, Florida, big ideas. His surprise, early signal that he’s running is THE PLAY OF THE CAMPAIGN so far — pushing OUT Mitt and perhaps Christie by freezing or stealing their money and talent. Jeb will be first Republican to $100 million by a mile. Now, watch for the use of overwhelming force to lock up more talent, donors and public endorsements. His big unknown: actual voters. A story leading the Tampa Bay Times today says Iowa “looks hostile,” in part because voters actually matter.

2) GOV. SCOTT WALKER (age 47): He’s got a Wisconsin winning streak, union-bashing, newness and ambition. His boffo performance at the Iowa Freedom Summit got the chattering class to notice. Now, watch for him to position himself as conservative Midwest savior, snuggled between Jeb’s moderation and Cruz’s rigidity. After CPAC (a week and four days from now), Walker plans rat-a-rat trips to the three earliest states – Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina – within a month.

3) SEN. MARCO RUBIO (age 43): The Floridian is winning fans among future-thinking conservatives, especially younger ones. He’s buffing up on foreign policy and could plausibly be the most sophisticated national-security thinker in the field (grading on a curve, of course). He’s blowing off Senate votes to raise coin and planning trips to Iowa and New Hampshire. And in private, his aides are making clear his relationship with Bush wouldn’t be a deterrent. Remains Playbook’s top pick for veep under the “no two white dudes on a ticket” rule.

4) SEN. RAND PAUL (age 52): He’s got creativity, social-media savvy, an early-state organization, and the capacity to surprise. SCOOP: Rand plans to continue his effort to reach beyond traditional GOP audiences with an upcoming appearance at a historically black college (he’s still nailing down location). Now, watch to see if he can truly upend what we know about the GOP electorate — and Rand and his family.

5) SEN. TED CRUZ (age 44): His right-wing lingo and street cred could propel him to an Iowa win, which would rattle the GOP establishment and ignite a media frenzy. He heads to Florida on Friday, venturing onto Jeb/Marco turf, as Rand did yesterday. Cruz is trying to look more serious and less scary by emphasizing national security – he did fine last Sunday in satellite interviews from the Munich Security Conference with George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s “This Week,” and Dana Bash on CNN’s “State of the Union.” Don’t discount how much true-believers like Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) like the guy.

THE REST: Gov. Chris Christie (age 52) was #5 when we first kicked around this list two weeks ago. Christie has candor, a winning record, raw ambition and some big donors. But Jeb’s fundraising juggernaut has squeezed Christie much worse than top Republicans had expected. And Christie’s London trip, where the biggest stories were about his stance on vaccines and his unwillingness to answer a question about ISIS, showed that the tough-guy shtick needs more work. Our leader board, of course, will change in radical ways in the weeks ahead, especially if another governor — John Kasich of Ohio, Mike Pence of Indiana — gets serious.

WHAT’D WE MISS? Tweet your thoughts and pushback to @mikeallen, or write us at mallen@politico.com.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Government; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Indiana; US: Iowa; US: New Jersey; US: Ohio; US: Texas; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2016electionbias; bush; chrischristie; demagogicparty; dnctalkingpoints; election2016; florida; indiana; iowa; jebbush; johnkasich; marcorubio; memebuilding; mikepence; newjersey; ohio; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; politicobias; pravdamedia; randpaul; scottwalker; steveking; tedcruz; texas; wisconsin
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To: DoodleDawg

Good bet for the ‘under’ then, no?


61 posted on 02/15/2015 4:58:45 PM PST by Baynative (Did you ever notice that atheists don't dare sue Muslims?)
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To: elpadre

Accomplishment entails compromise and accommodation. What’s wrong with standing on principle?


62 posted on 02/15/2015 5:33:15 PM PST by Lisbon1940
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To: Lisbon1940
Anyone who has served a full term or more as a Governor is out for me.

The last thing we need is another "trainee president". Everything looks easy to a person who has never tried it. The closest experience to leading the country is being a successful governor of a major state.

63 posted on 02/15/2015 5:52:40 PM PST by oldbrowser (We have a rogue government in Washington)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Eyes getting bad - I read Playbook as "Playboy".

But it was worth the visit to see what tiny lady she is. I had not idea!


64 posted on 02/15/2015 6:05:00 PM PST by skeptoid (the thot plickens)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

Do you really think Breitbart would come out for a candidate in the primaries?


65 posted on 02/15/2015 6:12:34 PM PST by EDINVA
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To: Lisbon1940

“Accomplishment entails compromise and accommodation..” Possibly, but necessarily true. Are you suggesting that to be a successful governor one can’t stand on principle?


66 posted on 02/15/2015 6:19:27 PM PST by elpadre (AfganistaMr Obama said the goal was to "disrupt, dismantle and defeat al-hereQaeda" and its allies.)
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To: oldbrowser

What does Governor have to do with foreign policy or military command, which are the only real duties of a Presider? Otherwise the Presider just signs bills, or vetoes them once in a long while. He or she may from time to time send over a state of the Union.


67 posted on 02/15/2015 6:20:56 PM PST by Lisbon1940
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To: elpadre

>>Are you suggesting that to be a successful governor one can’t stand on principle?

Well Brownback is trying but it isn’t going so well. I might give Sam a pass, but he isn’t running. Huckabee and company, no.


68 posted on 02/15/2015 6:26:05 PM PST by Lisbon1940
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To: Lisbon1940

The beauty of the no-full-term-governor thing is it clears the field of all the riffraff, leaving just Cruz, Carson, Paul, Palin and a few others.


69 posted on 02/15/2015 6:31:02 PM PST by Lisbon1940
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To: elpadre
“Accomplishment entails compromise and accommodation..” Possibly, but necessarily true. Are you suggesting that to be a successful governor one can’t stand on principle?

I am suggesting that to be successful governor one has to have the ability to accomplish your goals without compromising your principles. The ability to use the power of the office and the bully pulpit in a positive direction to encourage consensus.

70 posted on 02/15/2015 6:40:25 PM PST by oldbrowser (We have a rogue government in Washington)
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To: Awgie

Right, at least this early in, on Scott Walker.

Wrong like many other poopooers against Cruz. Don’t blink, he’ll fool ya.


71 posted on 02/15/2015 6:46:19 PM PST by X-spurt (CRUZ missile - armed and ready.)
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To: Lisbon1940
What does Governor have to do with foreign policy or military command, which are the only real duties of a Presider?

Nobody has experience being the president with foreign policy or military command except a former president.

However governors have experience being the commander of a large sovereign state. That is about as close as one can get.

72 posted on 02/15/2015 6:50:49 PM PST by oldbrowser (We have a rogue government in Washington)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Unbiased news from Politico - THE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARY OF THE WASHINGTON POST.
73 posted on 02/15/2015 7:11:52 PM PST by jimt (Fear is the darkroom where negatives are developed.)
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To: Lurkinanloomin

Designated loser. Yes. He is a True Republican and has put in his Time for the Party and he deserves to be Nominated but he doesn’t actually want to be president. It’s a drag and not for high class people. He will throw the election as his daddy tried to do the first time and succeeded in doing the second time and as Dole and Ford and McCain and Romney did hen they sat for election. Bush 2 didn’t throw himself to the mat but he punched pretty limply.


74 posted on 02/15/2015 8:44:51 PM PST by arthurus (it's true!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I have already made my first donation to Cruz - here’s hoping he prevails.


75 posted on 02/16/2015 3:18:42 AM PST by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: EDINVA

not officially.....but in terms of the tone and amount of coverage.

Drudge didn’t officially “come out” for Walker last week, but it gave him a helluva boost. Ditto’s Rush.


76 posted on 02/16/2015 3:50:19 AM PST by C. Edmund Wright (www.FireKarlRove.com NOW)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

No more Bush! See ya Jeb!


77 posted on 02/16/2015 3:52:24 AM PST by AFreeBird
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To: terycarl

I will not vote for a liberal, including Christie or Bush. Hillary may thank me, but this is a case of liberals battling each other. Neither Christie nor Bush will nominate good judges, balance the budget, address the runaway “entitlement programs,” honor the sovereignty of the states, or anything else conservatives want, so why should I vote for them?


78 posted on 02/16/2015 5:53:53 AM PST by rcofdayton (.)
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To: Lisbon1940

I am done voting for blue state compromises. Walker did great with unions and the budget, but has made miss-steps with the press and is sending mixed signals on immigration. Cruz is my first choice.


79 posted on 02/16/2015 6:09:48 AM PST by csivils
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To: laweeks
And, believe me, if our candidates becomes very strong, the Demorats will run a 3rd candidate to try to screw everything up.

I think this is inevitable since Hillary! can't seem to get above 50%. We just have to make sure that WE are not the ones to push the third party candidate because we are not happy with the R ticket. We are in grave danger of splitting the vote on the right and enabling a D win.

80 posted on 02/16/2015 6:40:40 AM PST by ez (RIP America 1776-2014. Long live the oligarchy.)
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