Posted on 02/07/2015 8:13:41 PM PST by ckilmer
Just as shale extraction reconfigured oil and gas, no other technology is closer to transforming power markets than distributed and utility scale solar.
Since the late 2000s, a widespread collapse in the price of solar modules has altered the economics of solar energy, putting it in a strong position to compete with other forms of power in the United States.
With module costs at historic lows, increased efficiency has become the next frontier. Consequently, while higher efficiency solar technology may command a greater module price, capacity gains per square meter can make them more economic on a $/W basis.
With that said, savings will also be driven by changes outside of manufacturing. Non-module costs will increasingly depend on heightened downstream competition, market structuring and regulatory redesign.
As a result, large scale solar economics have already reached grid parity (exluding integration costs) – the point at which the levelised cost of solar is less than a gas combined cycle or combustion turbine - across multiple regions in the US.
This trend is set to go on as solar costs continue to come down while combined cycle costs rise. By 2020, we expect 19 states to be at grid parity, increasing to 38 by 2030.
While distributed solar economics (typically less than 1-2 MW) are more uncertain, grid parity has arguably already been reached in many states where they are driven by incentives and financial innovation.
During our analysis, we identified many evolutionary parallels to shale and believe that solar has the potential to make the same scale of impact across markets.
Our base case forecast assumes 26 GW of distributed solar and 45 GW of large scale solar by 2035, totalling above 71 GW.
However, current wholesale market structures are not designed to accommodate large amounts of solar penetration. Should solar market saturation rapidly increase, other forms of capacity will still be necessary to meet needs while today's energy and capacity market design and compensation mechanisms will need to evolve to maintain reliability.
That would be "theoretically". You would have to prove that petroleum actually is decomposing vegetable and animal materials rather than the decay products of heavy elements deep within the Earth. Also, you would have to postulate that the nuclear fuel used in fission power plants was somehow produced by the sun prior to being mined from the Earth. Both premises are not going to proven easily.
See, Earth is composed of elements that were formed by stellar reactions in the final moments of one or more stars' lives. The core of Earth is mostly radioactive elements which are constantly decaying and producing the heat that causes volcanic activity. The decay products, hydrogen and carbon in particular, form methane as the move upward through the Earth's crust. Methane is otherwise known as natural gas, which, when burned, produces energy. It is not of solar origin.
Solar? The next shale? NO. Even in a theoretical 100% efficiency you still only achieve 50% for daylight. Add in the loss of direct light to 30% of the time the panel can run at full efficiency. Then throw in rain, clouds, fog, snow, etc...
AND to top it off there is only so much energy that hits the earth from the sun.
The cost of building the panels, installing the panels, and the fact that the energy needs to be stored in some way doesn’t make any sense. Unless, of course, you are a politician spending other people’s money.
No.
I've just saved taxpayers multiple billions of dollars.
Generators driven by ocean waves would work around the clock.
Cloudy, rainy, snowy days affect solar, but not waves.
Wave generation of energy also would not waste our land mass and kill millions of birds.
What’s easiest for an enemy to disrupt? ....Solar
Solar can work great if your power needs are small enough.
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Back in my golfing days at a country club, we often played in temps that were 100*+.
One of the older members wore a pith helmet with a high crown. He had installed a small solar panel (about 3x3 in.) on the hat and a small fan inside the crown. Kept his bald head cool all day!
The remote cabins we use in Canada are solar and they handle the lights, refrigerator and freezer. We use propane for cooking and showers.
(Boyd was a hugely important airplane designer and military strategist. He's not terribly famous, but he should be. Great, great book.)
The story goes that a defense contractor brought documentation to the USAF for their new plane. The documents were very impressive. All the officers were oohing and aahhhing. But Boyd looked at one chart and said, "This is an amazing plane! If I extrapolate this chart back far enough, I see that the wing has zero lift and the plane has zero drag. That's quite an accomplishment. What that means, is that if you turn the engines off, and park it on a ramp, you have to tie this sucker down or it will still have enough thrust to takeoff by itself. That's just amazing."
Then he called the contractor a liar and threw him out of his office.
Interesting and hard to deny the relationship, but other integral changes may alleviate the response.
Dreamers come from lovely environs where grid stability is not provided or expected. It’s a win-win for the denizens of Azatlan.
BAM!
And there you have it.
The bottom line is that generation ceases at night, and is reduced sharply when overcast. People still use electricity at those times. “Grid parity” would seem to require you have some means of overcoming this.
The really good part about solar in California is that when the earth quake destroys the nuclear plants, the seismic shocks will have little to no effects on the thousands of acres of solar panels
Spain already tried that. All they managed to do was double their retail electricity prices. It got to the point that they banned private solar because people were using private solar panels to cut their grid usage and the grid needed to be paid for.
If you want to secure stable cost, you can do that yourself with your own power sources. Do not lock the rest of us into a high cost only to watch costs drop later.
Except when there are no waves.
You’re joking, right?
I’m not sure how you arrived at this from my comments. I stated that if there is a price collapse in solar along the lines of what is happening with shale I’d jump in. I, myself, would install solar panels for my own personal benefit. That has nothing to do with forcing anyone else to to anything or pay anything on my behalf. The example you provide of Spain is exactly what concerns me. I cannot absorb skyrocketing anything and would be looking to secure stable future cost for electricity. Would it work? Not always, if off grid there will be days requiring backup of some kind, generator or the like. Grid tied “net zero” seems most practical for now, assuming a major drop in price for solar panels.
“Spain already tried that. All they managed to do was double their retail electricity prices.”
Also threw thousands out of jobs as the money was diverted to the stupid green schemes, and caused 20% unemployment
Yawn. Don’t talk about it, don’t forecast it, just do it. Henry Ford this thing and if its possible, just do it.
The problem seems to be storage or lack of capable batteries.
Yes, I agree with you completely, although I would add the caveat that battery prices are not collapsing by any stretch. I have four large panels and some small ones, but also a couple battery banks. The long pole is storing enough energy to make it through some cloudy December days. I only run small incidentals on solar (and the fridge in a power failure), but I can still run out in winter.
They still have 2 major problems: No power when the sun is not out and they must be hooked up to a grid with conventional power because there is no way to store solar power.
They still have 2 major problems: No power when the sun is not out and they must be hooked up to a grid with conventional power because there is no way to store solar power.
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