2014 Recap --Looking Back; Investment & Finance Thread - Dec. 14
Posted on 12/21/2014 8:49:52 AM PST by expat_panama
2014 Recap --Looking Back; Investment & Finance Thread - Dec. 14
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Merry Christmas!
We get to open some goodies a few days early here, first with the list of this past year's thread links (left) for a nostalgic walk down Memory Lane while we go over this past market strategies.
Then we can number-plot check out how general markets fared.
Stocks: Looking over the past year (as of Dec. 19) we're seeing the S&P 500 up 12.0% and the NASDAQ up 14.1% --above average! OK we've done better but I personally can live w/ this.
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However, maybe this is just me but something unusual this past year is that it's been unusually hard to gage. Too many times it's seemed we were definately going one way and POW, we'd do the opposite.
No problem. What's good is we see what's happening, that the signs are dodgy, so we move forward knowing we got things not being what they seem.
Good enough.
Metals had a rough year but not as badly as many feared. Sure, silver lost 20% but gold's actually about where it was a year ago.
IMHO Barchart's got a great longer term overview for precious metals at Gold And Silver - Nothing Is Ever As It Seems And No Respite For PMs.
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All of this begs the biggest, most often asked, and most useless market trend question: WHY? OK, here are the top headlines for 2014 and the stories we can blame:
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This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here and tomorrow morning we'll go on with our--
Open invitation continues always for idea-input for the thread, this being a joint effort works well. Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket, economy. |
humbug ping.
Oh, wait... Wrong thread
Gulf Oil Exporters Blame Non-OPEC Producers for Glut
Saudi Oil Minister Dismisses Suggestions That OPEC Decision Was Targeted at Countries
By Summer Said, Sarah Kent and Asa Fitch
Dec. 21, 2014 10:28 a.m. ET
ABU DHABI—Gulf oil officials on Sunday defended OPEC’s decision last month to keep its production ceiling intact, blaming producers outside of the group for the glut of oil on the market that has depressed prices.
Speaking at an energy conference in Abu Dhabi, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi blamed a lack of coordination from producers outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries—along with speculators and misleading information—for the slump.
On Nov. 27, OPEC said it was keeping its production ceiling unchanged, sending crude prices into a tailspin. OPEC officials since have said the move was aimed at protecting the group’s market share, saying a reduction in output to boost prices could have allowed non-OPEC producers to sweep in and take its customers.
OPEC officials have singled out American shale producers as a particular problem. U.S. oil production has soared as a result of the shale boom, reducing OPEC exports to the U.S.
Non-OPEC producers “will realize that it is in their interests to cooperate to ensure high prices for everyone,” Mr. Naimi said.
He noted that articles and analyses saying that the kingdom’s policies are aimed against one country or another are incorrect. Officials in Iran, Venezuela and Russia have suggested Saudi Arabia was working with the West to depress prices and weaken their governments.
snip
But when asked by reporters later in the day whether OPEC would cut output if non-OPEC producers offered to reduce their own production, Mr. Naimi said, “It is too late.” If other, non-OPEC producers want to cut, they are welcome to, he added.
snip
That's priceless. Maybe later today we'll get another headline "Gulf Oil Exporters offer thanks to non-OPEC producers for having supported OPEC for soooo many years." What?! Look, if the NOP's get blamed for the glut then they get the credit for 7 years of high prices too.
Persian Gulf Stocks Rally Again
Gains From Last Week Extended
By Nikhil Lohade
Dec. 21, 2014 9:21 a.m. ET
DUBAI—Persian Gulf stocks rallied again Sunday, extending gains from late last week, as investors continued to find value after sharp recent losses on sliding oil prices.
Gulf equities have tumbled in recent months amid concerns that weaker oil could hurt the petrodollar-dependent regional economies. But oil prices jumped to their largest percentage gains in more than two years Friday amid hopes of finding a floor for the commodity that has lost nearly half its value since June.
Investors are also more optimistic about the Gulf states running expansionary budgets, despite a decline in oil revenues, after Saudi Arabia’s finance minister was quoted Wednesday by the local press agency as saying the kingdom will continue to spend on development projects and social benefits next year. The Saudi budget for the next fiscal is expected to be released within days.
Dubai shares led the regionwide market gains Sunday. The benchmark DFM index jumped nearly 10% to 3765.35, after rising 13% in the previous session. It was down 35% since mid-November at Wednesday’s close. Neighbor Abu Dhabi’s market gained 3.5% to 4516.65 and Doha’s benchmark index rose 7.6% to 12,029.59. The Qatari market was closed Thursday for a national holiday.
Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul, the Middle East’s biggest market, finished 2.5% higher at 8525.39 Sunday, and has now added more than 16% in the past three sessions.
snip
3:30 pm ET
Dec 21, 2014
After U.S. Stock Rally, Some See Danger in New Year
By E.S. Browning
Last week’s stock rebound was so sharp you could carve your holiday turkey with it.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 890 points in seven trading days, then regained 736 points in the next three. At Friday’s close it was at 17804.80, less than 1% from its Dec. 5 record.
The snapback reflected investor confidence that the U.S. economic recovery is for real, that inflation will stay low and that Federal Reserve rate increases next year won’t end the bull market.
But the sudden rally may be hard to sustain. It was driven partly by the fact that many mutual funds have risen less than the big indexes. Some money managers are desperate to boost performance, so they won’t look bad compared with the S&P 500. Some are pumping available cash into stocks they think will rise faster than the market.
“If you are among the 85% of money managers behind the S&P 500, this is a chance to catch up,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank, which oversees $68 billion in Chicago.
Because some of that investing is short-term, the danger is that managers could shift some money elsewhere early next year.
Something like that happened this year, when the Dow fell 7.3% in January and early February, before rebounding to a record high in April.
snip
Saudi Arabia Confident in Oil Rebounding on Global Growth
By Wael Mahdi, Anthony DiPaola and Mahmoud Habboush Dec 21, 2014 3:00 PM CT
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-21/age-of-plenty-seen-over-for-gulf-arabs-as-oil-tumbles.html
Age of Plenty Seen Over for Gulf Arabs as Oil Tumbles
By Glen Carey and Nafeesa Syeed Dec 21, 2014 2:01 PM CT
Now I can’t find it.
Earlier today I was reading about how oil markets were going to have to get used to $20/bbl oil soon —that’s what it’s been historically time and again in 2014$.
Propane, Other Fuel Prices Feel the Burn as Oil Declines
Prices of Natural-Gas Liquids Have Been Hurt; 40% Declines Since September
By Timothy Puko
Dec. 21, 2014 6:35 p.m. ET
Sinking oil prices are taking propane, butane and other products used in the chemicals industry and home heating along with them.
The fuels, called natural-gas liquids, are a byproduct of oil and gas drilling and are used to heat homes, fire up grills and make plastics. So-called NGLs have been a source of profits for energy producers because their prices, until recently, stayed high even as natural-gas prices dropped.
But prices for NGLs—which include ethane, propane, butane, isobutane and natural gasoline—have turned sharply lower in recent months. From Sept. 1 to Dec. 15, the price of all the aforementioned NGLs except ethane dropped at least 40%, according to Oil Price Information Service. Ethane prices dropped 23%.
Prices for the fuels are closely linked to oil, so a sharp drop in crude prices has exerted downward pressure. A glut in the U.S. is also weighing on these markets. Propane and butane are at more than 10-year lows, down nearly half since the start of September.
The low cost of propane will help the roughly 5% of American households that use the NGL for heating to save anywhere from 20% to 34% this winter. Producers in the U.S. Northeast are likely to be among the biggest losers from the retreat. These companies had stepped up drilling in NGL-rich areas in Ohio and Pennsylvania, counting on the fuels to add several dollars to the value of every barrel of oil produced. But pipeline space to carry NGLs out of the region is limited, which is expected to worsen a regional glut.
snip
Why Saudis Decided Not to Prop Up Oil
American Shale Oil, A Perceived Threat to OPEC Market Share
By Jay Solomon in Washington and Summer Said in Dubai
Dec. 21, 2014 10:33 p.m. ET
In early October, Saudi Arabia’s representative to OPEC surprised attendees at a New York seminar by revealing his government was content to let global energy prices slide.
Nasser al-Dossary ’s message broke from Saudi orthodoxy that sought to keep prices high by limiting global oil production. That set the stage for Saudi Arabia to send crude prices tumbling late last month after persuading other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to keep production steady.
But the story of Saudi Arabia’s new oil strategy, pieced together through interviews with senior Middle Eastern, American and European officials, isn’t one of an old alliance. It is a story of a budding rivalry, driven by a threat posed by American energy firms.
Mr. Dossary’s October message signaled a direct challenge to North American energy firms that the Arab monarchy believes have fueled a supply glut by using new shale-oil technologies.
Saudi officials became convinced they couldn’t bolster prices alone amid the new-crude flood. They also concluded many other OPEC members would balk at meaningful cuts, as would big non-OPEC producers like Russia and Mexico. If Riyadh cut production alone, Saudi officials feared, other producers would swoop in and steal market share.
Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi tested that conclusion just 48 hours before the Nov. 27 OPEC decision, meeting in Vienna with oil heads of several big producer nations to suggest a coordinated output cut. As he suspected going in, he couldn’t get an agreement.
The option left: Let prices slide to test how long, and at what levels, American shale producers can keep pumping.
Top of the morning to you and welcome to the ultralow-volume short week! Futures traders are upbeat and 3 hours before opening they got stock indexes +0.20% and metals +0.27%. Existing Home Sales comes out an hour before the bell. News'n'threads:
Ok. Now what? S&P and Dow both @ records. This time last week, Western Civilization’s demise was nigh.
Also, natural gas in a bear market. January contract @ $3.15.
We got our ‘Santa Claus rally’ after all! The more I look into it though I really think those calendar effects are bogus, but in the mean time I’ll just be happy w/ making money.
By definition, the free market is reality. Willing buyers, willing sellers, and a “relatively” free flow of information that affects prices. Since the dawn of mankind, it is the best system yet devised to allocate capital for the highest and best use, and for creating wealth.
Hope this tit for tat doesn’t escalate.
North Korea goes completely offline: Report
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3239986/posts
More often than not escalation is far worse without the 'tit for tat':
State Department's new message for North Korea CNBC's Eamon Javers reports the U.S. State Department is seeking compensation from North Korea for Sony over its hack attack. CNBC Videos
We know that philosophically and intuitively but there's archeological evidence of that too. Neanderthal digs showed groups of beings with organized families and teams, they used tools, and they even buried their dead with respect and honor. A big difference between them and the first modern people (aka 'Cro-Magnon') was that these new sites would also have things that came from many hundreds of miles away --obsidian, rare hides, etc. in contrast to the Neanderthal's use of only whatever they found outside.
You nailed it, commerce began at the dawn of mankind.
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