Posted on 11/11/2014 9:15:33 AM PST by Kaslin
Looking back on the 2014 election cycle, I see two largely unnoticed turning points that worked against Democrats and in Republicans' favor.
The first came in response to the October 2013 government shutdown. This was blamed, as shutdowns usually are, on Republicans, partly because of their skepticism about big government, and partly because media professionals tend to fault the GOP in any partisan fight.
The shutdown occurred because about 40 Republican House members refused to support a continuing resolution funding the government without a proviso defunding Obamacare. Texas freshman Sen. Ted Cruz had been barnstorming the country arguing that this would somehow delay Obamacare from going into effect on schedule in October.
Without those 40 Republicans, House Speaker John Boehner did not have enough votes to pass a funding resolution. Reluctantly, and with behind-the-scene warnings that it wouldn't work, Boehner went along with the shutdown for nearly two weeks.
Boehner was right about the inability of Republicans to defund Obamacare, and he was right about the public response. Republican poll numbers plummeted, President Obama's job approval shot up toward 50 percent, and the generic ballot -- which party's candidate will you back in House elections? -- showed a big 6 percent Democratic advantage.
Democrats talked gleefully and not implausibly about regaining their House majority. Republicans had reason to fear that they would lose the one part of the federal government they control.
When Boehner got House Republicans to cave on the shutdown; however, voters started noticing something else -- something the media could not conceal: the fiasco of the rollout of healthcare.gov.
The Obama administration had 42 months between the passage of Obamacare and the Oct. 1 rollout. In the 42 months between the attack on Pearl Harbor and victory In Europe, the United States deployed a 16 million-man military around the world, produced thousands of ships, tanks and airplanes, and advanced in Europe and the Pacific to produce the "absolute victory" FDR promised over Hitler. In 42 months the Obama administration couldn't build a functioning website.
Voters noticed. By late November, the big Democratic lead in the generic vote had disappeared, never to reappear. Republican politicians and primary voters noticed, too. The pool of House hardliners shrank from about 40 to perhaps a dozen. No more government shutdowns, thank you very much.
In primary after primary, Republican voters did not opt, as they had in 2010 and 2012, for the loudest candidates standing on chairs yelling, "Hell, no!" Party leaders promoted more palatable candidates and substituted Cory Gardner for the 2010 loser in the Colorado Senate race. Such maneuvers would not have worked if primary voters had balked.
The result is that Republicans fielded cheerful, optimistic, unthreatening and future-minded candidates in crucial Senate races -- and won almost all of them. Similar things happened in House and governor contests.
A second, mostly unseen turning point came in late September 2014. Republicans' numbers rose sharply in the Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina Senate races during the week of Sept. 22 to 28.
What was in the news then? Obama announced we would bomb Islamic State forces but deploy no troops on the ground. And the Liberian Ebola patient, Thomas Eric Duncan, was -- belatedly -- hospitalized in Dallas.
This despite the assurances of Obama and the protocols of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. They rejected proposals to bar entrants from afflicted African nations or impose quarantines, which have been standard public health procedure since the Venetian Republic imposed one in 1377. Polls showed 70 to 80 percent of Americans supported quarantine.
Americans were told that "science" justified these decisions. The argument was that quarantine would deter health care professionals from volunteering to work in Africa. But how many people willing to endure such discomfort and danger would be deterred by the requirement of 21 days of comfortable isolation? Liberals accused Americans of "panic" for being concerned about the spread of a communicable and often deadly disease. Their approach reeked of the liberal refrain common in the 1970s and 1980s: "It's a complex issue; you wouldn't understand."
Republican candidates nevertheless called for quarantine. Democrats initially toed the administration line, and then some switched positions. That's evidence that the issue -- largely ignored in campaign ads and coverage -- was having an impact.
Ebola wasn't the only factor in the campaign. But perhaps it stopped Democrats from gaining ground, just as memories of the shutdown evidently motivated Republicans to field more salable candidates. These little-noticed factors probably contributed to the Republican wave, even though they did not cause it.
Barone finally catching up to what Cruz, and many of us knew, AT THE TIME!
The fiasco of Zerocare was hardly a hidden factor.
Republican voters wanted the shutdown and if they would have stuck to their guns they would have an even bigger win.
Pray America is waking
There’s a third factor in this past election that Townhall seems to have missed.
A black man attacks a white policeman, attempts to disarm the policeman, and is shot dead in the process. Obama and the Democrat party attempt to use this shooting to rally their black base to the polls for the midterm election, but something went wrong along the way. It now appears as if this shooting rallied more whites than blacks to the polls for this midterm election.
The leadership, although temporary, during the shutdown is what paved the way to this victory. Polls always take a temporary toll, but the outcome is what’s important. The owners of NFL teams and the players both chose to strike despite public sentiment, and what comes out of it the best deal possible for both sides and a product those same fans spend billions on to watch games, buy jerseys and travel to games. It’s a necessary evil to have those standoffs.
Just the same, the shutdown cemented in voters’ eyes the Republican opposition to Obamacare. When Obamacare website failed, it was clear who was responsible. When prices went up, when plans were lost and when doctors became unavailable, it was a clear who ‘owned it’.
What was the first thing the left did when the website failed? Started sullying the waters that this was a Republican idea, a Romney idea, something republicans pushed for. All lies, but the public eats up lies. This lie couldn’t stick because most everyone knew that we went to great lengths to prevent this disaster.
I am not sure Barone actually has all of his facts right here. We won some Senate seats with the strong fighters like last cycles. Sasse and Ernst come to mind. We didn’t go to battle with more ‘reasonable’ candidates any more than 2010 and 2012. We won seats back with temperate guys like Dan Coats in Indiana and others in 2010, too. We frankly won almost nothing in 2012 other than Cruz. The myth that candidates were better this time doesn’t hold much water. The Republican incumbents stayed for another election and won primaries. In NC, we were not even expecting Tillis to win a race that should have been a slam dunk. In most cases, I think a sack of potatoes could have won most of these races just by showing up and not talking about ‘legitimate’ rape. I do credit the party for having much improved candidate training this cycle. It seemed to have a good result, as did the improvements in GOTV. If we had some of this in place 2 years earlier, we would have won Florida, possibly Virginia, and probably 4 additional Senate seats (both tea party and establishment candidates who got beat would have benefited. All of the above failed in 2012)
Especially with the magnitude of the ‘pub victory in OH, I contend there was a “Ferguson Effect” across the US. Obama seems to relish the chaos out of control thugs cause there. Real people and real communities want a strong law and order response, not thugs running wild.
Cruz Control 2014, 2015, 2016
2012 was the ORCA disaster, lots of room to improve on. Nuf' said.
Barone got it half wrong, and it was very wrong. He got the Ebola factor right but the other half was complete rubbish.
He seems to be cheerleading the GOPe and slandering Tea Party Conservatives when in fact the Tea Party record has bragging rights. The GOPe’s candidates had margins that were uncomfortably close when in fact they should have routed the democrats handily.
Barone misses the hold-their-nose surge of republican voters because of the specter of AMNESTY. That factor completely escapes him. I am beginning to believe this old man is getting a bit limited in the comprehension department or he’s just been in the Beltway sphere too long.
It was the hold-your-nose factor that carried republicans with the tsunami. For him to write that the GOPe fielded more ‘palatable’ candidates is a hallucination.
And Boehner is not one to praise. Boehner is a danger to American society because he is going to pass amnesty for tens of millions of lawless aliens in order to appease his masters in the US Chamber of Commerce.
And did Barone mention Mississippi or other states where the GOPe stabbed conservatives in the back? Not a word. Oh it was a factor alright. A principled GOP leadership team would have eliminated a good portion of the ‘smell’ that republicans had to hold their noses for.
A tsunami election for the republicans does not mean the GOPe is now loved by its voter base. Just the opposite. As Sarah Palin said to the GOPe, “You Didn’t Build That”.
Firing Eric Cantor encouraged other candidates to eschew amnesty support.
And that,s just concidering the assualtive mom.....
Moral of Michael Barone's story: Elect more RINO's. Conservatives cannot win.
My Question: When are conservatives going to wake up?
It was reported in the BBC of all places that the republicans were winning the defund battle until Boehner caved.
Boehner is a loser that is being carried by winning conservatives because they couldn’t see what a loser he was when they came into power in 2010 sweep.
Boehner does not know how to lead and does not know how to be seen as a winner. He does not know how to put together a winning vision, a winning message. He is a go-along to get-along guy. He is always viewed as a bumbler and a loser. The press finds it easy to hang him out to dry for everything. He’s just not quick enough; not smart enough.
Obama is pissed because he actually lost to a bigger loser, Boehner. But Boehner is not the force that created the win. That force was the GOP base that held their noses yet again because the stench from Obama was too awful to put up with. Boehner should not think for one second that he had anything to do with the win except being carried by the surge of the base.
Same thing with Sen. Bob Dole in 1995. Dole caved big time.
If we’re looking for “little known” factors, I would offer up Obama’s heavy-handed actions during the government shutdown.
National Parks were closed, veterans were physically barred from visiting cherished memorials, even the freaking VIEW of Mt. Rushmore had to be obscured, and the media, thinking this might redound to the left’s benefit, reported on it in a big way. Bad move.
I think this revealed a huge character flaw in Obama, as we on the right already knew about, of course, but many in the middle and on the left had to be taking notice. The private sector was not spared pain, but government workers and government dependents took the brunt of the damage. His actions were petty, vindictive, and worse, unnecessary. Innocent people were harmed.
This was a “last straw” type revelation for those who were still on the fence about this guy’s motivations. I think things began to go south for Obama with his overreach during the shutdown.
“Moral of Michael Barone’s story: Elect more RINO’s. Conservatives cannot win.”
Cotton in AR is not a RINO. Sullivan in AK is not a RINO. Tillis in NC is not a RINO. Perdue in GA is not a RINO. Cassidy in LA is not a RINO. Rounds in SD is not a RINO. Daines in MT is not a RINO. Michael Barone is well aware of this, and when he referred to “more salable candidates” he was referring to conservatives who can win, not to RINOs.
Sadly, you answered my question.
I think you are right.
You may not be old enough to remember, but cities on fire, skyrocketing crime rates, and that scrum outside the Chicago Dem Convention only helped Nixon.
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