She also hopes LA voters forget she's an Obama lock-stepper
in a state where he and Obamacare are very unpopular.
"I managed to unglue my lips from Obama's ***hole
to be here. That's why my mouth looks so funny."
Posted on 11/10/2014 4:31:25 AM PST by afraidfortherepublic
For months, Louisiana Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu's re-election campaign was based on one simple pitch: Elect me to a fourth term, and I'll chair the Senate Energy Committee, and that means money, money, money for Louisiana. Landrieu's case for re-election was all about clout.
That was then. Now, as Landrieu heads to a Dec. 6 runoff with Republican challenger Rep. Bill Cassidy, Democrats have already lost control of the Senate — a reality that won't be affected by the outcome of the runoff. So while Landrieu still has a chance to win, one thing is absolutely certain: She will not chair the Senate Energy Committee. The entire rationale for her campaign collapsed on primary day.
That one fact has changed the campaign entirely. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which poured millions of dollars into Landrieu's cause, has cancelled planned advertising for the runoff. Outside pro-Democratic groups have pulled out, too. The energy that would have powered Landrieu's campaign, had it been critical for control of the Senate, has drained away as she struggles to find her footing.
But Republicans are struggling, too — with the temptation to assume the race is over. Recently, one top national Republican said the contest "is starting to look like a one-foot putt." The GOP's problem is far less serious than Landrieu's, but it's still a problem.
Certainly the numbers look bad for the incumbent. Cassidy, with 41 percent, and Republican rival Rob Maness, with 13 percent, won a combined total of 54 percent of the primary vote to Landrieu's 42 percent. Maness, who is out of the runoff, has endorsed Cassidy, posting to his Facebook page a picture of himself, Cassidy and their wives smiling at a post-election "double date" at a New Orleans restaurant. Maness will attend a "unity rally" for Cassidy in Baton Rouge Monday.
As Republicans unite, Landrieu is desperately trying to convince voters she can still win. Last Thursday, campaign manager Ryan Berni sent a memo to donors and other supporters trying to make the case for a Landrieu victory. Berni's main argument: "History is on our side."
"Mary has been in runoffs before, both in 1996 and 2002," Berni wrote. "In both of her previous runoff elections, Republicans candidates combined to take a majority of the votes cast in the jungle primary, and each time she improved her votes among white and black voters. In 2002, in particular, Republicans had a big win and President [George W.] Bush was at his peak approval ratings, yet Mary found a way to pull through."
Now, Berni claimed, even though the GOP is again over 50 percent, Cassidy cannot count on the support of Maness supporters. "Third-place finisher Colonel Rob Maness's supporters will not necessarily fall in line with wishy-washy Cassidy," Berni wrote. "His 14 percent showing shows just how little faith conservatives have in Cassidy." (Berni's memo was written before the very public Cassidy-Maness rapprochement.)
Landrieu has thrown away her I'll-have-clout campaign. Now, she is all about attacking Cassidy. She has chosen a new theme, "Where was Bill?" to allege that Cassidy has been absent from Louisiana's affairs at times when she was busy looking out for her home state.
Unfortunately for Landrieu, the "Where was Bill?' campaign stumbled out of the gate when Landrieu accused Cassidy of being missing in action during the Hurricane Katrina crisis. Her campaign tweeted: "WATCH: When Louisiana needed disaster aid, Mary stood up & fought for our state. But #WhereWasBill?" Landrieu's charge looked a little ridiculous when Cassidy, a physician, answered: "Mary Landrieu wants to know where I was during Hurricane Katrina? Setting up a surge hospital for refugees." Cassidy linked to an article in which he described his work setting up an emergency facility in an abandoned K-Mart in Baton Rouge.
Undaunted, Landrieu is pressing on. At a recent appearance, flanked by union supporters, she slammed Cassidy as "wishy-washy, unreliable, undependable, not sure who he is, not sure who he was, and not sure who he wants to be."
"All she is doing now is attacking," says one Louisiana Republican involved in the fight. "She's not talking about her clout anymore, she's trying to make Cassidy the enemy."
Landrieu faces a very tough electoral landscape. In his memo, Berni predicted that in the runoff Landrieu would attract a higher turnout among black voters and improve her showing among whites. While the former is possible, the latter seems highly unlikely. According to exit polls, Landrieu won just 18 percent of the white vote in the primary — too little to win in Louisiana. "She got below 20 percent of the white vote," says the Louisiana Republican. "I don't care how much she gets the base out, she can't improve her performance with the white vote. I don't think it helped when she went on TV calling Louisiana voters racist and sexist."
In contrast to Landrieu, Cassidy doesn't have a lot of problems. So far, at least, the national Republican Party remains committed to running ads on his behalf, and this week a large contingent of GOP workers is scheduled to arrive in Louisiana for get-out-the-vote efforts. Outside groups are also still up and running for Cassidy. "We haven't had this kind of ground force in Louisiana ever," says the Republican.
Still, GOP strategists with years of work in Louisiana are wary of declaring victory a month before the election. "We've been close to knocking Mary out before," says the Republican. "In 2002, Republicans had a big night in November, and December people sort of let their guard down and she was able to win. The point is, we can't take it for granted."
The fact is, the outlook for Cassidy looks very good. But it is also true that one-foot putts are occasionally missed. Despite all the factors in their favor, that is what Louisiana Republicans are trying to keep first in their mind between now and Dec. 6.
Mary would need every single voter to return and vote again for her, plus dig up 10,000 dead voters, then hope that ten-percent of the Republicans just don’t vote again. All of this....plus the national party won’t stand behind her with funding.
Why vote for Landrieu and no clout, when Cassidy can have clout in the new Senate? Louisiana voters are not stupid when it comes to clout.
How does it feel, Mary, to be thrown under the bus by your party? Do you really want to throw away your own money to try to win this run-off?
I worry about Republican over-confidence.
I think Byron is trying to be too cute by half here. I’ve not seen the GOP taking anything for granted in this case. I’ve seen reports of added manpower for GOTV efforts, etc.
The power of position her Democrat persuasion might have continued on with her is gone. With the balance of power in the Senate now sealed, she doesn’t even offer the status of ‘deciding factor’. Even if re-elected, she would be powerless. In short, she has nothing to offer. Not in power, influence, or visage.
I worry about their laziness - make a few comments and they think they have done their job...many are just as pitiful as their counterparts on the Left, only less unified in the end game tactics.
She also hopes LA voters forget she's an Obama lock-stepper
in a state where he and Obamacare are very unpopular.
"I managed to unglue my lips from Obama's ***hole
to be here. That's why my mouth looks so funny."
You are correct.
I WOULD NEVER take anything for granted with this bunch. This seat may not get them a majority the next two years, but it could VERY USEFUL after that.
Don’t think they’re simply gone. They live for this. They have nothing else to do with their lives than steal elections. They are far from defeated (in their minds) in this race.
So Byron York is basing this 'gop struggling/overconfidence' meme on "one top national republican's" throwaway line?! C'mon Man.
Sen. David Vitter, Rob Maness among Republicans to rally for Bill Cassidy on Monday"
Landrieu Backs Into A Buzzsaw: Attack On Cassidy Backfires Horribly [VIDEO]
Landrieu asserted in her own defense: "My taking $4.3 billion for my vote was of enormous help---b/c it laundered millions of tax dollars into the coffers of Democrats to buy their Obamacare votes, too."
Byron York makes a solid point in that I’d rather run scared and keep the scare up than slack off and finish with on 52/53 Senators from the GOP. While it is unlikely that Alaska’s Sullivan will lose, at the moment there are ‘only’ 52 Senators and the same math that was favorable in 2014 is decidedly against the GOP in 2016 for the number of contested seats. I’m sending my money to Cassidy for this run-off, it is that important.
Remember, they bury them above ground in LA, so its easier to get them to the polls.
If the GOP allows her to run as the “poor little girl underdog”, “fighting for the little guy” against “powerful outside forces” she can still win.
Keep fighting like we’re ten points behind.
The incumbent got 40% of the vote when she actually had something to offer. Dead woman walking....
Use every ally available. Crush Landrieu.
Yes.
What's my point? If mainstream Republicans are okay with such despicable tactics against their own, who knows what Democrats are capable of to get some revenge for last Tuesday's results? Landrieu has to be defeated, and by a humiliating percentage. Otherwise, she's still in the game.
Me too, but with Rob Maness and Ted Cruz both publicly supporting the Doc, I think it looks pretty good.
The Doc has a good resume as a human being.
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