Posted on 10/20/2014 8:01:51 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Scroll down the RealClearPolitics poll summary for the last few days, and you see a lot more red than blue in the latest surveys [1] released for Senate, House and governor’s races. Many races are very close in all three categories, but over the past two weeks the GOP position — particularly in House and Senate races — has generally improved.
Governor’s races are the biggest crapshoot. RealClearPolitics counts 14 races as tossups: Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Wisconsin, Illinois, Colorado, Hawaii, Alaska, Arizona, Kansas, and Michigan. Since eight of the 14 are currently in Republican hands, this may be the biggest opportunity for gains for Democrats. There is little chance Democrats will gain seats in either house of Congress.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is now focusing on only 25 races, and 18 of them are seats currently held by Democrats. If the Democrats won all 25, they would still be 10 seats short of the 218 seats needed to take control of the House. A more likely result at this point, given that Democrats are on defense in most of the competitive races, is for the GOP to hit 240 or more, maybe even to hit a number higher than the party has achieved at any time in the past 65 years.
The RCP House summary [2], as well as those of Larry Sabato [3]and Stuart Rothenberg [4], suggests that more Democratic-held seats are likely to shift than Republican-held seats, since more of the tossup races are for Democratic-held seats. As an example, today there are no Republicans in the U.S. House from any of the six New England states — but Republicans are competitive in both New Hampshire districts, Maine 2, and Massachusetts 6, the last two being open seats. The GOP also has excellent pickup opportunities in Illinois 10 and 12, and has a decent chance in Iowa 1 and 2, two seats thought safe for Democrats a few months back. These are districts in states where Republicans have underperformed in recent cycles. With unhappiness with Congress expressed quite strongly in every poll, the few dozen House districts that are competitive after the last post-census redistricting (which was performed skillfully by both parties where they had the opportunity) could well see a lot of turnover.
The greatest media attention has been devoted to the Senate, where the Republicans, after losing at least six winnable races in 2010 and 2012 (Colorado and Delaware in 2010; North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, and Indiana in 2012), now seem poised to win at least the six net pickups to finally get over the top to 51.
The latest figures suggest that as many as 13 seats could swing from one party to the other or to independents — 10 of them now held by Democrats, three by Republicans. Since virtually all analysts concede that Republicans will win in open seat races in West Virginia (Shelley Moore Capito against Natalie Tennant) and Montana (Steve Daines versus Amanda Curtis), the GOP could wind up with anywhere from 44 to 55 seats. Nate Silver [5] currently puts the chances of the GOP hitting only 44 at 0.3%, but at 61% for winning a majority of 51 or more, and 52% for realizing 52 or more.
While most of the competitive races still show leads of only five points or fewer, there have still been noticeable changes in the landscape the last few weeks. Republicans are in much stronger shape, building leads of two to five points in Colorado (Cory Gardner against Mark Udall), Alaska (Dan Sullivan against Mike Begich), and Iowa (Joni Ernst against Bruce Braley) and moving closer in North Carolina (Thom Tillis versus Kay Hagan) and New Hampshire (Scott Brown versus Jeanne Shaheen) — probably both are now one- to three-point leads for the incumbent Democrats.
Republicans have maintained a steady lead in Kentucky (Mitch McConnell versus Alison Lundergan Grimes), Arkansas (Tom Cotton versus Mark Pryor), and Louisiana in a head-to-head match for a likely runoff in December (Bill Cassidy versus Mary Landrieu). In a multi-candidate race with two Republicans, Landrieu has a small lead but is well short of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. In a one-on-one runoff, Cassidy has extended his lead week after week, reaching 9 points in the latest poll.
On the other hand, three races are surprisingly problematic for the Republicans at this stage, given Republican strength in all of them in recent cycles.In Kansas, the wounds have not healed after a bitter primary between long serving Senator Pat Roberts and Tea Party candidate Milton Wolf. Wolf has refused to endorse Roberts. A strong independent candidate Greg Orman, is the only serious contender after the Democratic candidate dropped out to improve Orman’s chances of victory. Orman claims he is truly independent and will not commit to which Party he will caucus with if he wins (kind of like Alison Lundergan Grimes refusing to say whether she voted for President Obama) . However, his contribution history in prior campaigns, and some policy positions suggest he is a Democrat. Orman held a ten point lead two weeks back, but most recent polls have Roberts narrowly in the lead. Prominent Republicans from in the state and other states are all working to salvage Roberts’ seat. On the other side, George Soros’ son is holding a fundraiser for the wealthy Orman, who has been largely self-funding his campaign. This carries the risk of tying Orman more closely to Democrats, not helpful with Senate control at stake in a Republican state.
The other race that has appeared from nowhere is the contest for the open seat in South Dakota, where Republican Governor Mike Rounds seemed to be sailing to an easy victory until a scandal over EB-5 visas put him on the defensive [6]. Again, an independent candidate figures into the mix: three-term former Republican Senator Larry Pressler, as well as Democrat Rick Weiland. Both national parties have decided to step up spending in the state, an inexpensive media market, after an automated poll showed the race much closer (a four-point Rounds lead over Pressler) than every prior survey. Pressler’s candidacy is running on a shoestring, but he has high name recognition. Rounds’ campaign is expressing confidence that their own polling shows a much bigger lead of over 10 points.
The biggest shift away from the Republicans has been in Georgia. Georgia has a large, growing black population (over 30%) and a growing Hispanic population, and these demographic changes have narrowed the Republican advantage in the state. Democrats have a candidate with a good name: Michelle Nunn, daughter of the former blue dog Democrat Senator Sam Nunn. The Republican nominee who emerged from a five-candidate field is businessman David Perdue. Perdue held a modest lead for weeks, until he started getting hit over outsourcing by his business and defended the practice. Democrats have pounced, much as they successfully targeted Mitt Romney in 2012 for similar activities while at Bain Capital.
Georgia is like Louisiana: if no candidate reaches 50%, there is a runoff between the top two candidates in early January. Usually turnout drops in runoff elections, and that might be good for Perdue. The presence of a Libertarian candidate makes it more likely that the 50% bar will not be reached.
At the moment, Roberts may be a slight favorite in Kansas, Rounds remains favored in South Dakota, and Georgia is truly a tossup. The Republicans hold a lead in the last polls taken in all of the competitive races except Georgia, with tiny leads in New Hampshire and North Carolina, the first time that has happened this cycle (though poll averages still have Democrats ahead in both states). If that is where things wind up November 4, Republicans will have secured 53 seats, with two runoffs in Louisiana and Georgia to follow — one with an advantage for the GOP, the other a tossup. That would make for a very good result for the party. If the GOP can hold all the competitive seats it is defending — Kansas, Kentucky, Georgia — but fall short in New Hampshire and North Carolina, that will still get the party to 53. There will not be too many complaints from Republicans and their supporters if they get that high.
Article printed from PJ Media: http://pjmedia.com
URL to article: http://pjmedia.com/blog/election-2014-latest-polling-tilts-redder/
URLs in this post:
[1] the latest surveys: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
[2] RCP House summary: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/2014_elections_house_map.html .
[3] Larry Sabato : http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2014-house/
[4] Stuart Rothenberg: https://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house
[5] Nate Silver: http://pjmedia.com http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/
[6] put him on the defensive: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/south-dakota-senate-race-surprises-gop/article/2554579
Much of this is the shift to the LV model at this point.
Get back to me on Nov 5.
Does ANY of this take into account the NEWLY registered voters on both sides?
Suspect potential chicanery in this regard. Polling organizations haven’t been above bias...
KYPD
We are about to learn just how effective the new, institutionalized, DOJ supported voter fraud really is...
An even better indicator than all of these polls is the historical record. The party out of power usually picks up seats in midterm elections. This is ESPECIALLY pronounced in the sixth year of an incumbent administration. Consider the following:
In 1958, the sixth year of the Eisenhower Administration, the Democrats scored a huge gain in the midterm election that year.
In 1966, the sixth year of the JFK-LBJ Administration, the GOP scored a huge gain in the midterm election that year.
In 1974, the sixth year of the Nixon-Ford Administration, the Democrats scored a huge gain in the midterm election that year.
In 1986, the sixth year of the RR Administration, the Democrats scored a huge victory in the midterm election that year.
In 1998, the sixth year of the Clinton Administration, the GOP did not score such a big victory that year. They scored their enormous gain in the 1994 midterm election and kept their congressional majority for the remainder of the entire Clinton Administration.
In 2006, the sixth year of the GWB Administration, the Democrats scored a huge victory in the midterm election that year.
Polls fluctuate back and forth, but historic patterns remain relatively constant and they do not favor the Dems this year.
55 is the true Republican max. 52 or 53 seems more realistic at this point.
I would bet that, with control of the voting machines, the dems will juuussst squeak over the number of votes needed to sweep the elections...Daggone it! Looks like everyone in my precinct voted left.. even me!
The general pattern there is the incumbent party messes things up and the challenger says they will fix it and gets elected. Then they mess things up more and the former incumbent party says they will fix it and gets elected. Then they mess it up worse and the former incumbent party says they will fix it...ad nauseum, until we are all nauseous.
Good.
That’s all true. But there are other factors at work too:
1) Turnout is much smaller than in presidential elections. Electorate will be smaller, older, whiter, more conservative, therefore more Republican than is generally the case in presidential elections.
2) Intensity and exhaustion tends to favor the party out of power. The opposition to the incumbent is intense, the bloom is off the rose for many of its initial supporters.
3) The Dems have the added burden of having to defend so many US Senate seats in red states easily carried by McCain and MR——states where BHO’s approval ratings are much lower than the national average.
The Dems are facing a perfect storm this year. Throw in Ebola and ISIS-—not to mention Panetta’s scathing critique...well...
The over-reaching actions of Houston's lesbian mayor cannot be helping the dems either.
Not so sure Harry Reid and pals are in hush mode stuffing some pockets?.
Oh no, positive news for the GOP, quick, FR naysayers post your comments!
Liberal Alinskys in the media have captured the language!
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