[taxcontrol]

The pale horseman rides.

“And when the Lamb broke the fourth seal, I heard the fourth living being say, ‘Come!’ And I looked up and saw a horse whose color was pale green like a corpse. And Death was the name of its rider, who was followed around by the grave. They were given authority over one-fourth of the earth, to kill with the sword and famine and disease and wild animals” (Revelation 6:7-8, NLT).

Up to 1/4th of the worlds population = 2 Billion.

[grumpygresh]

I think it’s crazy that there are still flights out of East Africa to the rest of Africa, Europe, Mideast, and NA.
The virus has an incubation period of 2-22 days, so you can have asymptomatic carriers walking around with the disease for for 3weeks. There will also be the equivalent of Typhoid Mary cases that spread the disease.
The virus has been mutating to fast for effective vaccines.
Airborne spread is likely, and care givers need to wear at least P100 filters. Regular masks will not be adequate.
If this thing does go global, we will have medical martial law and the US government already has laws in place to do just that.

[babygene]

Wow

[Jewbacca]

“This model is contained within a macro-enabled Microsoft Excel 2010 spreadsheet (i.e., a .xlsm file). I would be willing to share it with other Freepers if someone can provide a place to post it for download and can tell me how to sanitize my name from it (again, I don’t want my employer to be in any way held accountable for this).”

Print it, redact information.

Go copy it at Kinkis, scan it and post it.

[familyop]

Thank you for the information. I would like to believe that it would spur nearly universal attention to good hygiene, but with the current paradigm of common thought and behavior, probably not.

[ElenaM]

Excellent analysis. Out of curiosity what CFR percentage did you use? It looks like 50%.

I can make your Excel sheet anonymous or tell you how to do it. Then upload the file to Scribd.com to share.

Thanks for the info. We in the Ebola Surveillance thread have been saying much the same for quite a while. Hearing it from someone in the coding/medical informatics field supports our admittedly less rigorous projections.

[ElenaM]

Excellent analysis. Out of curiosity what CFR percentage did you use? It looks like 50%.

I can make your Excel sheet anonymous or tell you how to do it. Then upload the file to Scribd.com to share.

Thanks for the info. We in the Ebola Surveillance thread have been saying much the same for quite a while. Hearing it from someone in the coding/medical informatics field supports our admittedly less rigorous projections.

[GraceG]

I hope you are as wrong with these projections as the Global Warming charts....

[combat_boots]

Kudos

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/09/research-model-predicts-1-1-million-to-2-3-million-ebola-deaths-by-september-2015/

[Doc91678]

I wonder how many South African illegal aliens coming into America through our Southern borders have been contaminated with the Ebola virus? At this point the virus is only transferred by contact. If it matures into an aerosol type virus then we do have a problem. Will quarantine then work?

[Daffynition]

U.S. State Department alone putting out a bid for 160,000 suits

*We're from the government and here to help ourselves.*

[piroque]

marked for later....Thanks for the post

[Excellence]

A friend’s favorite saying is, “In the end, the bacteria wins.” Of course this is a virus, but it applies.

[null and void]

The game of Ebola Roulette continues...

*click* spin *click* spin *click* spin…

Eeeee-bolllll-aaaaaa ping!

Bring Out Your Dead

We’re gonna need

a bigger cart!

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

[Prospero]

I appreciate your hard work and dedication, and take your qualifications as a given. I also heartily agree none of us should underestimate prayer, as a first not a last resort. Nevertheless, I have a question for your.

Given your qualifications for creating these projections, as to the qualifiers effecting the data as it unfolds in the real world, in your work with statistics are their not certain logarithmic formulae that can be applied, particularly with the data when the available pool becomes larger and perhaps more accurate, that might tighten your projections around probabilities?

Wouldn't it be more accurate to hash out columns rated against their range of probabilities, e.g., 10-20 % 10 to 20 millions; 20-30 % 10 to 5 millions, etc?

[Mad Federalist]

Sir,

I have an advanced degree in mathematics, and unfortunately I confirmed your findings last week when the death total was near 1500. When the WHO reported that the number of cases was doubling every three weeks, I quickly realized that there would be over a billion people with Ebola in 12 months unless something changes. Therefore, I concur with your projection. We are facing an apocalyptic scenario unless something fundamentally changes. May God help us.

Thanks,

M.F.

[dayglored]

Funny you should have done this numerically. Same exponential increases that I laid out graphically a couple of days ago, using a semi-log scale so that the projection could be plotted with straight lines. But I only took it through the beginning of January 2015, since I figured the slopes would change by then. For better or worse, who knows?

The base graph is the WHO/CDC released figures on the Wikipedia page about the outbreak.

[familyop]

Ebola would spread even faster in developed countries.

* Travel, eating out, shopping, public entertainment, etc., are much more common.

* Customers are forbidden from wearing masks in many public places.

* There’s a popular aversion to hand-washing, where even medical professionals are hastily using hand sanitizer instead of scrubbing.

* Although the floors are shiny, many hospitals and clinics even smell filthy compared to such places forty years ago.

* There’s also the trend toward socio-political spite between groups (balkanization).

* The aversion to hygiene is most apparent in public places around tourist centers in western states.

* Our country has far too few medical employees and hospital beds relative to the population.

* There will not be enough quarantine facilities for more than a very few.

* The economy would completely seize, so fearful market interests (sponsors, most influential political constituents,...) are motivated to prevent any measures that could alarm the population and decrease revenues. They would lose all that they have during an epidemic and will take all that they can get in advance.

* Drug abuse is very common and has been legitimized in some states by legalization.

* The few highest bidders for questionable treatments in very short supply would do anything to get them, exacerbating the situation.

[DocRock]

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[Squeako]

Ebola projection bookmark