Brutally Cold 2014-15 Winter Shaping Up For The United States

Firsthand Weather ^ | 11SEP2014 | Matthew Holliday

[Jack Hydrazine]

The 2013-14 winter was a season that I will never be able to forget simply because of the kind of cold Arctic outbreaks that occurred throughout that year. What’s even more remarkable is that the 2013-14 winter became known as that winter that simply would not end, and even this summer, we have seen times when the mid and upper level pattern strongly resembled what would be typical of a winter pattern. We had pretty severe Arctic outbreaks in both 2009-10 and 2010-11 winters but for entirely different reasons than last winter. The main driver of last winter was the warm pool of above average waters over the northeastern Pacific, and this warm pool is still there! It is to blame for a lot of the volatility that we have seen this year in our temperatures across the United States.

You hear a lot about the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) particularly during the winter months as those indices are very important to monitor each winter and can be the difference between a cold winter in the central and eastern United States and a very warm winter. Last year, it didn’t matter whether we had a positive or negative NAO/AO, and for those of you that followed my forecasts last winter, you may remember me telling you to ignore all the forecasts being put out that were predicting a big warmup simply because the AO/NAO wasn’t negative. It’s rare that you would hear me say something like that, but the reason that it didn’t matter was because of the warm pool in the northeastern Pacific. It led to a more volatile pattern, and even the regions further south and southeast that didn’t necessarily lock into a cold pattern experienced below average temperatures for a good portion of the winter because of the frequent Arctic blasts.

The 2014-15 winter could also be strongly influenced by the warm pool in the northeast Pacific if it persists going into the winter months, and based on some of the things that I have been looking at, chances are good that it will. This would likely lead to another brutally cold winter in the central and eastern United States while the western U.S. would have above average temperatures, particularly in the Pacific Northwest. The good news is that I think central and southern California will receive above average precipitation, and that is due to a developing weak El Nino that will not necessarily be the main driver of this winter but will have some influence. This also means more precipitation across the southern states including the Southwest through the Southern Plains to parts of the Southeast. The regions where the cold air will be in place will have an increased chance at seeing more wintry weather this season, even in locations that typically don’t get any snow/ice.



When there is a warm pool of above average sea surface temperatures over the northeast Pacific/Gulf of Alaska, you get ridging to develop up over Alaska and the western U.S. and troughing over the central and eastern United States. This can persist throughout the entire winter (just like last winter) if this warm pool remains in this same place throughout the season. This is what is considered a negative EPO (eastern Pacific oscillation) pattern and typically brings cold air over a large portion of the United States. Due to some other factors that I will explain in a future article, I have reason to believe that the cold air could be more focused in the eastern third of the nation this winter.

There are still a lot of unknowns about this winter, and I am going to monitor everything closely through September and October before I put out a final 2014-15 winter forecast in late October or early November. There have been a lot of bogus forecasts being put out on this upcoming winter, and you just have to ignore them. I strongly believe that this could be another brutally cold winter, and if anything changes my mind, you’ll be the first to know. Remember, there are sites that call for brutally cold winters EVERY SINGLE YEAR just to get high views, but as most of you know, if I think something is going to happen, I tell you WHY.

Here are two links for you to check out: this one here will take you to my region-by-region breakdown on this upcoming winter, and this one here will take you to my detailed winter forecast that gets more into the meteorology behind the forecast. Also, be sure to like Firsthand Weather on Facebook, where I will be putting out updates on this upcoming winter and other weather events.

[Erik Latranyi]

Joe Bastardi says it’s going to be brutally cold as well as both Farmer’s Almanacs. And now this guy.

The odds are just as likely that they will all be wrong because we do not really understand how the climate works.

...and I like Joe Bastardi!

[Fresh Wind]

To all you scoffers who think weather can’t be forecast beyond a day or two, the Weather Channel has already begun releasing forecasts for 2050:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65ScX7kNR_g

[trebb]

Ha ha! I live in the orange zone and I’ve got enough firewood to last for two years. Life is good.

I'm in the dark blue zone where "incredibly cold" isn't as cold as the Upstate NY winters I went through growing up.

[BillyBonebrake]

Readying my snowboard, my snowblower, my snowshoes, and shaking my Al Gore snowglobe.

[katana]

It is one of the paradoxes of all the fear and panic mongering over supposed warming of the climate that life in fact does best in warmer climes. It’s far more likely that “We’re all gonna die!” if the climate turns colder than if it warms on average by a few degrees. Throw in the geologic record showing that we’re probably nearing or at the end of an inter-glacial warm up and the claims of morons like Gore and his idiot sycophants (yes, I mean you Leo) in the entertainment industry become truly albeit infuriatingly laughable.

[unread]

"I hear New England will have to go to Canada to beg for heating oil thanks to the brilliant energy policies of obama’s EPA."

The local suppliers rationed propane in our part of the country (southern Ohio) last year... 100 gal. was all you could at one time... The whole uncertainty of the situation was very troublesome...

[Joe Brower]

Wow, thank God for glo-bull warming, otherwise it might *really* get cold!

[HartleyMBaldwin]

Looking good for Arizona, then.

[43north]

It will be OK during the winter (unless you ski) but not good in next fire season.

[Pride in the USA]

I like the warmer winters we have experienced the last couple of years, but we also had above average snow pack throughout most of the state. This year it looks like we may have a drought. I sure hope that part of the forecast is wrong!

[sarge83]

If local old time Appalachian winter predictors are correct we are in for at least 10 measurable snow falls this winter.

My great-great grandmother counted each heavy fogs in August as a measurable snow fall for coming winter. If she is correct 10 measurable snow falls. Her other prognostications were length of orange on wooly worms, the shorter the orange sections on the wooly the worse the winter and so far I am seeing very little orange on the critters. Lastly was her hornets nest test, the high the nest off the ground the worse the winter. Haven’t seen any this summer so no-go on this old timers prognostication method.

I am more inclined to think that with the continued fall off in sunspot activity we are going to get another nasty winter myself.

[Delta Dawn]

I’ll tell you how bad it’s going to be this winter...the ice is going to have ice on it...

[SuziQ]

I am of the opinion this will be a mild winter after having such a brutal winter last year, but that’s just a personal opinion.

Nope, we're still in a solar minimum, which makes things cooler, all over, summer or winter.

[SuziQ]

So just keep the kids at home on days when you know the snow is going to pile up; problem solved. Their learning won’t be damaged by not showing up a day or two.

[Pox]

Actually, I believe we're at the peak of this 11 year Solar Cycle, but we may be in the beginning stages of a Maunder Minimum which would see sunspots basically disappear for s few or several 11 year Solar Cycles.

Sunspots are currently plentiful, although relatively well below average over this and the previous 11 year Solar Cycle.

SpaceWeather.com

Whether or not that really will translate into another brutal Winter is debatable, but when the sunspots do disappear for multiple cycles, I will agree that we are in for some harsh winters.

[discostu]

Hey I’m in the green zone, above average woo woo. We haven’t had an 80 degree Christmas in a long time, I looooove Christmas swims.

[SuziQ]

Whether or not that really will translate into another brutal Winter is debatable, but when the sunspots do disappear for multiple cycles, I will agree that we are in for some harsh winters.

Even the peaks we've had have been minimal. There were several years in the early 'aughts' when there were few or NO sunspots; the sun was a bare as a baby's bum! NASA, in line with their push for 'Global Warming' kept predicting that the new cycle would be extremely active, but for several years, had to push their predictions out for the next year, because that cycle change just didn't happen. And when it DID happen, it was short, and again, with very FEW sunspots.

[bert]

Then there is my mother, may she rest in peace.

She was a child of the depression and WWII. Her parents were both country folk that came to the city. She carefully repeated all her father taught her especially “the signs” those would be both the almanac zodiac and the natural plant and animal and weather indicators.

One such was fogs in August mean bad winter.

My interpretation is that cool weather in humid August produces fog. The cooling is normal but somewhat early and will become more pronounced as winter comes.

This August in East Tennessee it was foggy nearly every day.

Look out..... it’s going to be bad

[mware]

Oh I remember that. Total insanity on her part.

I live in South Jersey and we had so many snow days we were in school until June 24th.

I retired from teaching in June, and so look forward to NOT getting those 4AM phone calls or shoveling snow to get out of my drive way.

[EinNYC]

So just keep the kids at home on days when you know the snow is going to pile up; problem solved. Their learning won’t be damaged by not showing up a day or two.

Yes, of COURSE. What you say is just common sense. You're not driven by a Commie agenda, that the school system is mainly for child care and not for education at all. The main reason they kept the schools open on that terrible blizzard day was to provide "hot meals to those children who might only have this hot meal that whole day." Well tuff noogies. If you, as a parent, can't manage to heat up a can of soup or otherwise provide a hot meal on a cold day, you are not fit to be a parent. Even a cat will tend to their babies and keep them warm and fed.

So all the teachers, staff, and kids had to endanger their very lives traveling under horrific conditions where I saw school buses slip-sliding away and where people waiting for buses had to stand out for over an hour for each bus. If you had to take 3 different buses to get where you had to go, that meant a 3 hour journey each way, waiting out in the cold, ice, and snow.