Posted on 08/12/2014 6:15:50 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
We must go back into Iraq. Then when we leave, we must not leave an Iraq.
In the immediate aftermath of the 2003 invasion, there were two strategic errors. The first was when the Americans took down the US flag in Baghdad. In some American stores the sign says: "If you break it, you own it." We broke Iraq, but then we refused to own it – we refused to raise our flag and say: "It's our responsibility now if your power doesn't work or someone tries to rob you."
The second great error is the one that's really coming to haunt us now: we decided to preserve the territorial integrity and unity of Iraq. Iraq was formed in the early 20th century from three Ottoman provinces: Mosul, Baghdad and Basra. Broadly these areas have continued to have significantly different identities, with only the brutality of Saddam Hussein maintaining order. After we removed him, there was immediately a debate as to whether Iraq should be preserved as one country or, instead, broken into three zones: a Kurdish area in the north, a Shia area in the south and a Sunni area in the centre and the west.
De facto some of this did happen – indeed had already happened shortly after the 1990-91 war. The Kurds established an enclave in the north, protected from the Iraqi military after 1991 by a no-fly zone. After the 2003 war we could have recognised a Kurdish state, and since at that point Iraq would have been being broken up anyway we might naturally have gone on to separate Sunni and Shia areas, also. But we never recognised a Kurdistan because of the Turks.
The Kurds are the largest ethnic minority in Turkey, comprising around a fifth of the population.
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.telegraph.co.uk ...
Here is the Iraq 3 state solution in brief:
1. ISIS becomes he first true terrorist state with unbridled ambitions to expand and more and more funds to do it.
2. The Kurds get annexed by Turkey for the oil fields. Not immediately but over time this is certain.
3. The Shi’a state comes under the umbrella of Iran and rather quickly is brought into the Iranian fold.
And none of this solves the problems inherent in Iraq today, it only exacerbates the problems.
Did I mention the ethnic cleansing that would be even worse then than now or the economic upheaval in Sunni areas leading to cross border war in perpetuity?
Ditto for Yugoslavia. Let's put Catholics, Orthodox and Muslims together. What could possibly go wrong?
The Kurds are already independent. No one can give them what they already are and have been. They’re selling their oil to Turkey. Baghdad has tacitly acknowledged this. And yet they’re working with Baghdad against ISIS. So there it is. They are autonomous.
The Kurds are the first autonomous state of the new Iraq federation.
Witness their strength and unity. In time the Shia and Sunni will do the same. Then they’ll work together as members of a federated Iraq.
The United States is the facilitator of all of this. Don’t be ashamed. Be proud. We will defend Iraq against the IS and Iraq will reform as a stable and strong republic of federated states.
Federated Iraq will prevail.
Iraq was one of the consequences of post WWI colonialism.
On the centenary of the outbreak of the “Great War” Iraq should be broken up.
The Kurds deserve their own state.
“Could you tell me how the US “divides Iraq in 3”?”
Western Sunni province with Mosul as an economic center so the Sunnis have a source of oil revenues, Kurds with Kirkuk as the economic center so Kurds have a source of oil revenues
and the Shia in the south with the southern oil fields as their economic center.Arab Sunni and Shia do not play well together so there will be some movement in currently mixed areas until they eventually separate to their respective regions Call it a loose confederation but the reality is they would be independent states. Our only true ally would be the Kurds.
You missed the point. We have no power, no authority and no will to do anything in Iraq.
Actually it was written about the River War, the campaign by the British against the Mahdi army, a crowd exactly similar to ISIS today. Back then of course the West wasn’t so squeamish about dealing with crazy jihadis.
At the battle of Omdurman the British wiped out the Mahdi army, cheerfully spraying them with Maxim gunfire and artillery. The Mahdis lost 10,000 dead (Churchill personally dispatched a couple of them), 13,000 injured and 5,000 prisoners, the Brits lost 47 dead.
It worked a treat, funny how no one seems willing to do something similar these days.
I understand your point. I disagree that we do not have power when it comes to the Kurds. The Kurds WILL declare independence if the US tacitly gives them the go ahead and there will be no one to stop them.The only reason they have not done it to date is that we wanted them and the Sunnis as part of Iraq to offset Iran’s alliance with the southern Shia.Once they break off the Sunni Arabs will want the same who are only cooperating with ISIS right now because they want out from under the central Shia government. If we have a Petraeus type negotiate with the Sunni tribal leaders as he did during the surge that if they cooperate with getting rid of the extremists within their midst we would support an independent Sunni province. The southern shia are a lost cause. They will be allied with Iran whether they are independent or part of the current Republic. Best we can hope for is that eventually the nutjob Iranian mullahs are finally thrown out of power.No guarantee any of this will work but it is a strategy for eventually getting rid of ISIS in Iraq. Ain’t pretty but nothing in the Middle East is.
“I say we let Joe Biden draw the lines when it gets divided into three parts. After all, we want this job done right ...”
Biden was the one who originally proposed a 3 state solution.
I wonder if I knew that?
Ah, yes, 1899. Didn’t some Brit politician get arrested this year for reading this passage aloud in public?
Gotta agree. Let the various whatevers go their own ways. Spend no more US treasure or lives on them. A pox on all their houses.
Love it.
After what the Turks did to the 4th ID, an independent Kurdistan should have been a fait accompli.
Biden being correct is less apt than the map makers in Britain and France drawing lines after WWI were wrong.
Yeah, no ####.
And, I hate to reiterate, but sometimes it can be said, if a-holes could fly, this place would be an airport.
Thanks SeekAndFind.
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