Posted on 07/19/2014 10:26:38 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued
PPP's new Mississippi poll find Thad Cochran has a strong advantage for the general election- but that the fallout from last month's divisive runoff has left a lot of voters undecided. Cochran's at 40% to 24% for Democrat Travis Childers and 5% for Reform Party candidate Shawn O'Hara, with 31% of voters still undecided.
Cochran's emerged from the primary popular with Democrats (58/22 approval) and unpopular with Republicans (39/52). Cochran is particularly well liked by African Americans, sporting a 59/20 approval rating, and even narrowly leading Childers with them at 37/36. Cochran is only polling at 48% among GOP voters though with 37% still undecided, reflecting a lot of McDaniel supporters who are still so angry they can't bring themselves to say they'll vote for Cochran in November.
In general Mississippians think Cochran won the Republican runoff fair and square. 58% think he was the rightful winner to only 29% who believe McDaniel was, and 50% think McDaniel should concede to only 35% who believe he should keep on fighting. McDaniel voters are pretty unanimous in thinking he was done wrong though- 81% think he was the rightful winner of the runoff to just 10% who believe Cochran was. And they want him to keep on fighting- only 28% think he should concede to 63% that want him to keep on challenging the outcome of the election.
The protracted fight is having a pretty negative impact on McDaniel's image beyond his support base though. He now has a 29/53 favorability rating, and he actually trails Childers by a point in a hypothetical match up at 37/36, with the Reform Party candidate getting 4%. He may be hurting his ability to run successfully for office in the future.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
31% undecided (and presumably as mad as a wet hen) is not good for Thad Cochran. They may not vote for the 'rat, but will they show up to vote for Cochran in November?
“I’d be all for McDaniel’s challenge if I thought it would succeed, no matter how it made him look. But I can’t see that happening”
McDaniel’s challenge certainly won’t succeed if he drops it. He needs to see it through. I’m in Mississippi and I agree we need closed primaries.
I’m a lifetime Republican voting for 50 years, never missed an election, primary or runoff and NEVER voted for a democrat. I will NOT vote for thad or the travis, democrat.
Worth repeating.
One interesting thing that came out of the recent press conference, but didn’t seem to receive much attention, was where they said that it’s possible that the fraud in the original Jun 3rd primary kept McDaniel from winning outright.
I’m assuming that would have to be in the absentee ballot count somehow, since they didn’t have the issue of ineligible Dems voting in that one.
I agree with you that McDaniel should continue to press his case, as long as he’s convinced he has one.
I’m also not surprised to see the high support for Cochran from blacks, given that they’ve just been deluged with ads and encouragement to vote for him. I doubt they’ll be getting that same advice for the general election though.
And finally, what do you want to bet that the farm animals that Cochran admitted to playing with get upgraded from chickens to goats, cows and horses once he’s running against Childers.
What’s the scoop on the Reform Party candidate? Is he a viable option?
What is your best guess as to turnout in Nov. if the race stays as is and it is Cochran
on the ticket? I looked at the last two Senate races, Wicker in 12 and Cochran in 08
and the general election saw over 1.2 million votes in each. Granted they were presidential
years and thus a stronger draw I’d assume.
Wicker got a little over 700,000 votes or 57.14% in 12. In his special election in 08 he
got just under 700,ooo or 54.96%. On the same ballot in 08 Cochran got over 760,000 votes or 61.44%.
It seems the turnout is much larger in the general elections but there was a governor’s
on the ballot in each of those years. Do you have any feel for the situation this
time as to turnout, etc.?
“What’s the scoop on the Reform Party candidate? Is he a viable option?”
I would say he or his party is not a viable option, I can’t think of his name, he has run on the reform ticket before I don’t believe he has hit the 4% the article is showing him with and would doubt he will do it this year. I expect a concerted effort for a “write in” which in reality would be no more than a protest, I will participate, but this effort will probably capture protest votes that would have gone to the reform party. Of course this is only an opinion.
“McDaniel is not only fighting for this election. He’s taking on the whole corrupt, power hungry GOPe establishment in MS. Maybe he doesn’t care if he’s tainted goods and is willing to be a sacrificial lamb if it reveals the true colors of the Cochran/Barbour cabal and levels the playing field for the next real conservative who runs.”
I agree wholeheartedly. McDaniel is fighting a fight that must be fought if this is ever to be stopped. And even if the courts shut him down, he has already done an immeasurable amount of good by shining the light of day on Barbour, McConnell, Cochran, and the rest of these cockroaches.
God bless Chris McDaniel.
I don’t really know. I believe this fiasco caused by the cochran camp, including the NRSC, will encourage the democrats and they will spend a lot of money now believing they may be able to pick up what had been a safe Republican senate seat. I have heard of a few who have talked about voting for the democrat and many who are talking either not voting in the race or writing in. It’s to soon for me to predict, I need to see if there’s an organized effort for a “write in”. I will not vote for a democrat or cochran.
Thanks for your reply. I agree it’s too early yet as there is still a lot of water to flow
under the bridge, imo. What is the thinking with the ‘write in’ voting? It’s not
a legal vote as there is no write in candidate as I understand the situation. So is
it a form of protest voting?
“What is the thinking with the ‘write in’ voting? It’s not
a legal vote as there is no write in candidate as I understand the situation. So is
it a form of protest voting?”
Yes, but an organized “write in” effort with the same name, Chris McDaniel would probably attract more participants and therefore have a greater impact regardless of who wins the senate seat. There has been speculation that a federal judge could rule a the “write in” winner as “the people have spoke”. The space for write ins is on the Mississippi ballot because of either federal law or dictates, I forget which, according to the Mississippi SOS’s office.
True that. Not much harm in trying.
I don’t agree with people who think the solution is replacing Cochran with someone to his left. Some people seem to rooting for a heavily democrat Congress because of course that’s better than Boehner and McConnell in their minds.
A “near loss” means the NRSC would be spending money there that could be used to take over democrat seats. Therefore, I hope he wins easily. My nose will remain on my face. One way or another this next term will be the last for this a-hole. This primary will be remembered in the same fashion as the Alamo. San Jacinto can begin shortly in Tennessee.
I would never vote for a Democrat or left leaning third party.
When I lived in PA, I held my nose so tight I couldn’t breathe to vote for Arlen Specter.
I expect I’d do the same for Cochran if I lived in MS. I’d need one of those swimmer’s nose clips to do it because my fingers wouldn’t be strong enough - LOL.
See Post 55.
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