Posted on 06/11/2014 2:49:04 AM PDT by Servant of the Cross
Eric Cantor’s loss is historic. No sitting House majority leader has lost an election since the office was created in 1899. While Cantor’s loss was a stunning surprise, the warning signals were around for a while:
1. Cantor managed to muddle his message on immigration. His direct-mail pieces claimed he was foursquare against amnesty. But the newspapers covering Washington, D.C., quoted him as saying he was seeking a compromise with President Obama on immigration. Voters resolved the seeming contradiction by deciding to vote out their establishment congressman. Cantor’s loss destroys any chance of a comprehensive immigration bill passing the House this year.
2. The majority leader outspent his opponent, David Brat, by $2.5 million to $40,000. Much of that money went to negative ads against Brat that turned off voters and were so vitriolic as not to be credible.
3. Cantor was also hurt by a subterranean campaign by Democrats to convince their supporters to vote in the Republican primary against Cantor. Apparently, some of them did.
4. Many constituents of Eric Cantor felt he had ignored them for years, rarely returning home and often ignoring them on key issues ranging from expanding Medicare prescription-drug benefits to TARP bank bailouts. The frustration boiled over at a May party meeting in his district, where Cantor was booed and his ally was ousted from his post as local party chair by a tea-party insurgent. “He did one thing in Washington and then tried to confuse us as to what he did when he came back to his district,” one Republican primary voter told me.
And, looking forward:
5. In theory, Cantor could run as a write-in candidate in the November election, but that is highly unlikely. A divided GOP vote could elect a Democrat in a district where President Obama won 43 percent of the vote in 2012.
6. The House Republican Caucus has experienced an earthquake. Regardless of John Boehner’s decision on whether to remaining speaker, there will now be a new majority leader. Early contenders for the post are House Financial Services Committee chairman Jeb Hensarling and House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan. Both men are more conservative at their core than Cantor, who often made colleagues think he was a conservative of convenience rather than conviction.
Primaries are often criticized for low voter turnout. But they are also expressions of the grassroots sentiments of political parties. The lesson tonight is that establishment candidates ignore their most ardent voters at their peril. As political analyst Stuart Rothenberg put it tonight: “The GOP establishment’s problem isn’t with the Tea Party. It’s with Republican voters.”
It was an open primary and Dems went to the polls.
Last night, Brit Hume (who I once had great respect for)got into this Amnesty definition and parsing thing these Republican establishment types are so fond of. “It isn’t ‘amnesty’..definition = pardon....it isn’t...blah blah blah.”
Laura Ingram cut that down to the horse pucky it is with [paraphrasing] “these ‘plans’ are all just euphemisms for allowing criminals who broke our laws to illegally stay in this country.”
I think the different results had more to do with the respective incumbents than the challenger(s). Cantor is singularly repulsive. Yes, Flimsey Tinkerbelle is too, but obviously not to a lot (>177,000) of South Carolinians.
Cochran is another example where the incumbent is so bad, they'll lose. But, how do we repeat Brat's success against an incumbent who doesn't beat themselves?
It was an open primary and Dems went to the polls.
If so, it has just backfired on the Democrats big time.
That sums it up! I think it was easy for the GOP honchos when they could blame it all on the Tea Party, which is a relatively small group of voters and one that may be somewhat transitory, but the overwhelming results make it very clear that the GOP has got some serious thinking to do.
Voters see illegal immigration as an existential threat to the nation. The Democrat establishment does , too. But they don’t give a damn, because it is to their short term political advantage.
The Democrats are in danger of becoming The Immigration Party, and trading a handful of legal Hispanic votes for the rest of their coalition. They have a foot in two boats. If they do not get legalization and 20 Million freshly minted citizens voting Democrat, they will lose it all.
Cantor spent $100 for every vote he received.
There ain’t enough lipstick you can put on that pig.
True. However, Lindsey "Grahamnesty" didn't get that nickname for nothing. He even double-downed on 'immigration reform' at the primary debate. Yet he still garnered 56% in more conservative (than VA) South Carolina?
Don’t bet on it.
Political novice + fractionalized party + Democrat vote “irregularities” = possible Dem pickup in this district.
Tea Party was assisted by Dems voting in our open primary. Seems to be a winning strategy for them.
The tea party has their candidate, now try not to pull an Aiken.
This is why Indiana got rid of Lugar. We ended up with someone who just pulls the lever for whatever Harry Reid tells him to.
So why didn't Levin, Ingraham, Palin, others ... also send some love toward Lee Bright?
The GOP establishment really ought to learn from that fact...no matter HOW CONCILIATORY one is to liberals, they still hate you.
I am also amazed at the push for "immigration reform" when it is APPARENT that Valerie's puppet will NOT ENFORCE CURRENT LAW.
Team BO just blatantly broke the law with the Taliban-deserter swap....why do they think he would abide by any new laws??????
Don’t bet on it.
Political novice + fractionalized party + Democrat vote “irregularities” = possible Dem pickup in this district.
Tea Party was assisted by Dems voting in our open primary. Seems to be a winning strategy for them.
The tea party has their candidate, now try not to pull an Aiken.
Maybe if it was a Senate Race.
Cantor’s district is so heavily gerrymandered for Republicans that it is all but impossible to elect a Democrat there.
For a Democrat to win Cantor’s old seat, it would be like Tom Delay winning in Sheila Jackson Lee’s district
...”It was an open primary and Dems went to the polls”...
It doesn’t matter..A sleeping giant has awakened.
I mostly blame Clod Akin and Mourdock secondarily for falling into the media trap. Mourdock was light years better than Lugar.
Bottom line: Indiana ends up with someone who pulls the lever for Harry Reid - whether named Lugar or Donnelly.
True Dat. The RATS portray even moderate milquetoast squishes like Mitty and McQueeg into far-right extremist Attila the Hun's once they captured the GOP nomination.
The fact that Boehner, McConnell, and Skippy Cantor still try to 'reach across the aisle' is proof they're more concerned about their D.C. 'prestige' than about the country and the conservative principles upon which it was founded.
Don't worry Eric, Valerie will call you tomorrow to come join our immigration strategy team.
Another very good distinction between VA and SC races yesterday. Far easier to win a House seat than a statewide Senatorial one.
For a Democrat to win Cantor’s old seat, it would be like Tom Delay winning in Sheila Jackson Lee’s district
Now that's funny!
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