Posted on 04/13/2014 3:35:12 PM PDT by expat_panama
Investment & Finance Thread (Apr. 13 edition)
This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here and tomorrow morning we'll go on with our--
Open invitation continues always for idea-input for the thread, this being a joint effort works well. Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket.
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(click to enlarge) There're many opinions from say, CNNMoney, Investing.com, FTLondon, as to what it all means, but imho Investing Daily (not to be confused w/ IBD) says their take is that this latest shift is money not fleeing the markets but rather 'rotating' from one set of sectors (including 3D printing & exotic meds) to stodgy big caps. |
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Maybe kind of like what we had at the end of the 'dot.com' bust where the big caps just kept chugging along while the NASDAQ got creamed. (click to enlarge) I mean, last Fri. we just saw the NASDAQ crush thru it's longer term support while the big cap Dow/S&P's haven't even got to their support levels yet. My thinking is that this was kind of foretold a week ago when we were watching the techs limping even while the big kids were pegging new highs.
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So let's fast-forward to this week's office stock strategy pool. I'm voting for watching for this correction's 'follow-thru-day' and moving back in and enjoying the next run-up.
Sunday new-thread ping!
Anybody buying the dips? I’m watching and waiting myself. Sticking with my cores in PMs mostly.
Gold is up almost 10 in overnight trading.....Ukraine may hit the front burner.
Given that we've just gone into the first big week of earnings season, some companies had better show real good quarters. You'll note, Pete, that numerous of the "mo-mo" darling stocks have already had the snot beat out of them over the past 3 weeks.
Well, 2 of those, GOOG(L) and CMG report this week and, candidly, if I had to have a position (other than arbitrage, naturally) I had much rather be short these two than long, for the near term (at minimum).
This is the time, if ever there was, for the paired vertical call/vertical put trade. However, only put this on on the day before earnings are reported, and ideally with just an hour or so remaining in the day session.
Good trading to all!
Yeah, been following that. Kinda got me a bit confused like I was wondering about the fact that if a stock reverses lower then it (by definition) no longer can be referred to as a 'momentum' stock --but I know what you mean. Sold the last of my CMG three weeks ago; usually I sell when I get a loss of more than 7% but this time I decided not to wait so long.
But yeah, I'm expecting to see a lot of new ones on the darling list; the past couple weeks the IBD 50 has been seeing a lot of turnover.
That's always the ideal, but before buying back in my problem is figuring out when the dip has really for sure finished all the rest of of its 'dipping'...
Is the blood moon tomorrow night a buy or sell signal? ;^)
I don’t see how it could be a “buy” signal.
Seems it will run from 1:58 to 4:25 AM EDT so trades affected will only be those placed where it’s visible (the Americas) and on exchanges that are open (European).
I think.
Critiques or comments?
The slumps that shaped modern finance
Happy New Week to All!!! Today we got Retail Sales coming out before opening bell, and our futures traders are putting metals'n'stocks flat right now. More news:
- World stocks decline on dour US earnings outlook Global stock markets fell Monday following two days of U.S. declines and forecasts of lower American corporate profits.
- Chinese GDP data to offer 'hard landing' clues
- Gold Bears Bet Wrong Again as Fed Talk Favors Bulls
- Euro zone's February output suggests gradual recovery strengthening Reuters - 1 hour ago BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Output at the euro zone's factories rose broadly in line with expectations in February, driven by production of intermediate an
- Ukraine tensions land fresh blow on struggling stocks Reuters India - an hour ago LONDON (Reuters) - There was no let-up for bruised share markets on Monday as growing fears of a military conflict in Ukraine followed last week's heavy sell-off on Wall Street, Tokyo and major European exchanges.
- High fees eroding many 401(k) retirement accounts Philly.com - 11:30am And now a new study finds that the typical 401(k) fees - adding up to a modest-sounding 1 percent a year - would erase $70,000 from an average worker's account over a four-decade career compared with lower-cost options.
- Walgreens urged to leave US to gain tax benefit Walgreens has come under pressure from an influential group of its shareholders, who want the US pharmacy chain to consider relocating to Europe, in what would be one of the largest tax inversions ever attempted.
Please note that last one (hat tip to Chgogal) the way it shows not only that taxes have consequeses, but also that the fact that shareholders are owners.
KCG Morning Update:
U.S. stock-index futures fell, following the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s worst week since 2012, as investors awaited earnings and retail-sales data, while violence escalated in Ukraine.
Citigroup Inc. lost 1.9 percent in Germany before it reports first-quarter earnings. Johnson & Johnson retreated 1 percent after Jefferies Group LLC cut its rating on the drugmaker’s shares.
S&P 500 futures expiring in June declined 0.1 percent to 1,809.5 at 6:10 a.m. in New York. The S&P slid 1 percent on April 11, completing its worst week since 2012, as technology shares dropped on valuation concerns and JPMorgan Chase & Co. tumbled after reporting first-quarter profit that missed
analysts’ estimates. Dow Jones Industrial Average contracts lost 21 points, or 0.1 percent, to 15,960 today.
“There’s some nervousness around the U.S. earnings season and obviously with the added geopolitical worries, that’s enough to unsettle some investors,” said Henk Potts, who helps oversee about $310 billion as a strategist at Barclays Wealth & Investment Management in London. “We had JPMorgan come in below expectations so it’s clear it’s been a pretty tough quarter for U.S. financial services. We’ll get a much better picture of corporate America come this week with some more earnings coming
through.”
M&T Bank Corp. also posts earnings today, while Coca-Cola Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Yahoo! Inc., Google Inc. and General Electric Co. are among companies scheduled to report later this week.
A Commerce Department report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington may show that retail sales rose 0.9 percent in March, according to the median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales increased 0.3 percent in February.
European stocks fell for a third day, after completing their worst week in a month, as investors
weighed increasing violence in Ukraine. U.S. stock-index futures were little changed, while Asian shares dropped.
PSA Peugeot Citroen slid 4.4 percent after saying it will cut its model lineup by almost half. Kuehne & Nagel International AG lost 3.4 percent after the world’s biggest sea-freight forwarder reported first-quarter sales that missed estimates. Symrise AG dropped 2 percent after offering to buy Diana Group. Glencore Xstrata Plc rose after selling its stake in the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.5 percent to 327.07 at 12:12 p.m. in London, posting its fifth decline in six days. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures gained less than 0.1 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.3 percent.
• Support:1808, 1801, 1780
• Resistance:1829, 1842, 1863
Projections that earnings will rise much faster than sales at U.S. companies may be too optimistic, according to Andrew Burkly, an Oppenheimer & Co. strategist.
The CHART OF THE DAY displays the projected percentage gaps between profit and revenue growth for companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index through 2016, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analysts’ estimates. Quarterly figures for last year are included for comparison.
Analysts are looking for the S&P 500’s first-quarter earnings to increase 1 percent, or 1.9 percentage points less than sales. They see profit leading by 3.6 points in the second quarter, 5.2 points in the third and 6.2 points in the fourth.
Companies will have to increase profit margins to records to meet estimates, Burkly wrote two days ago in a report. The result is “a scenario we view with ongoing skepticism,” the New York-based portfolio strategist wrote.
The margin for U.S. companies during last year’s fourth quarter was the highest since 1950, according to data compiled by the Commerce Department. Earnings for the period amounted to 12.7 percent of revenue.
Finding ways to reduce costs and make workers more productive will be “an increasing challenge,” Burkly wrote, adding that many companies lack the pricing power to bolster revenue. “Forecasts for earnings growth will have to be pared to allow companies to satisfy investor expectations,” he wrote.
stocks starting out strong...
Seems a lot easier to read after reformatting & turning it into a pdf though. At first glance I saw a few leftwing bias errors but I'll still study it for the rest of the info.
There’s no escaping leftwing bias errors. To be “educated” in the 20th century is to be indoctrinated by communists and other travelers in their caravan.
Ping me with your thoughts when you get the chance, please.
I’ve seen that story about “high 401k fees” in several places lately. Just wondering...
Don’t they mean “mutual fund fees”? They contrast it to index funds, so it seems to me they mean mutual fund fees. Or are there some 401k fees that aren’t related to the funds offered?
From what I’m able to glean from the story it’s looking like the 1% management fees for the 401k plan itself, not the funds that are held by the plan.
This is the part that makes me think they mean mutual fund fees:
“The higher fees often accompany funds that try to beat market indexes by actively buying and selling securities. Index funds, which track benchmarks such as the Standard & Poor’s 500, don’t require active management and typically charge lower fees.”
Here’s another similar story I just happened across:
And it says:
“Most fees —more than 80 percent of them — are covered by a plan’s ‘expense ratio.’ The expense ratio includes recurring fees you’re charged when you invest in a fund.”
Don’t they mean a “fund’s” expense ratio, rather than the “plan’s” expense ratio?
It’s just bugging me cuz I like accuracy. And these stories floating around lately make it sound like it’s fees related to just being in a 401k, when in fact I think they mean mutual fund fees. It’s like they’re dumbing it down on purpose for the low-information types.
We’re together on the understanding that news stories are too inacurate for money decisions. If you’ve got a 401k then you can get the answer w/ a phonecall/email. If you don’t (like me) then you’re free.
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