Why Steve Jobs’ Computer Paradigm Shift Prediction Panned Out, and What it Means for the Market

The Wiglaf Journal ^ | March 6, 2014 | David Dalka, New Media Editor

[2ndDivisionVet]

Traditional hard drive manufacturers are currently going through a paradigm shift

[servantboy777]

SSD’s are more reliable than a traditional spindle HDD. This is not the real benefit. It is speed and capacity. As miniaturization continues in the electronics industry, SSD’s will allow for more powerful machines.

Can anyone spell.....artificial intelligence? Autonomous robotics? Miniaturization will be a driving factor in this technology.

[palmer]

Disk drives crash. Do these?

Yes. But unlike a hard disk which can be broken when dropped but still readable (for a high fee) these are not broken when they are dropped. But when SSDs go bad they are unwritable and often unreadable. There are lots of measures taken to prevent that such as overprovisioning and they also try to ensure that they are still readable even if they are not writeable.

But they are complex, so I would always back them up, avoid using them for high amounts of write, and keep them less than half full.

[Malsua]

If an SSD does malfunction, what about data retrieval (if not backed up)? I’d heard that this is a problem. Is this true?

What is most likely to fail is the controller. A data retrieval shop can fix that easily. If the internal chips fail, the data is gone. If a hard drive platter has a head bounce, that data is gone just the same. That said, SSDs don't catastrophically fail like that. The memory doesn't just all go wonky at the same time. The controller slowly turns off bits that it considers used up. What's mostly likely to happen is that you have a very very old computer that started out with a 128gb SSD that now has a working capacity of 100gb....next year it's 96gb..etc.

[martin_fierro]

My work laptop just got outfitted with a SSD (Windows 7).

Bootup/shutdown times GREATLY improved.

The laptop is also noticeably lighter.

[palmer]

It can be a problem. Depends on firmware on the SSD, the hard disk drivers and the OS. Certain failure modes can result in garbage overwriting good data.

[theBuckwheat]

And I would add that present flash technology is lousy and will soon be eclipsed by other solid state technology such as memristor. Flash has the big problem of limited write cycles and data evaporation.

For storage of large amounts of data present SSD disk emulation inherently limits the rate at which a large amount of data can be read from a single SSD via the current interface. We need a new interface that has a lot of parallel channels. Rotating disks couldn’t make use of this but solid state memory could.

[PhiloBedo]

Can I replace the old disc HD in my MacBook with an SSD? That is, are they interchangeable, now?

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

Couldn’t anyone have predicted this, like the end of the diskette? It was only a question of when.

[Comstock1]

Yes, you can replace your HD with an SSD. They are mainly packaged in the same form factor to fit as replacement. I would look on Pricewatch.com to find the best price for a size you need at a reasonable price.

[Paradox]

I recently purchased a laptop with an extra drive bay, waiting for the need, and the price, to jump on the bandwagon. I’m just about there.

[major_gaff]

I am a development engineer for one of the two major chip manufacturers of hard disk controllers...we are still designing HDD SoC’s for Seagate, Hitachi and WD, but we also have been doing SSD’s for several years now. For the near future, you will see ‘Hybrid’ drives that use both technologies, but as we move towards 16nM processes, Flash memories will approach the capacities of hard disk platens and the cost will come down. As to reliability, anything that does not require moving parts is more reliable.

[Steven Tyler]

Can you share your top 2 or 3 retail outlets?
Do external SSD drive performance match internal drive performance?

[Future Snake Eater]

You seen these? We had some reps for their company come by to talk to us about their storage system. We run a fully virtualized client/server network, so this could be some pretty great technology for that realm.

[WhiskeyX]

“Couldn’t anyone have predicted this, like the end of the diskette? It was only a question of when.”

Critics of Seagate simply don’t know what they are talking about. The owner-managers of Seagate are making a ton of money selling hard disk drives, because the SSD (Solid State Drives) have not yet reached a low enough price and high enough storage capacity to supplant the hard disk drives (HDD). Yes, this situation is changing in favor of the SSD. In the meantime, Seagate must make hay while the Sun shines, and sell as many of the HDD as they can to profit from the costs they incurred to build the HDD manufacturing plants.

When the SSD are finally able to supplant HDD through competitive capacities, pricing, and reliability, the leadership of Seagate can do one of two things. They can maximize their personal gain through the sale of their Seagate stock options and stock as Seagate declines and is eliminated from the market, or they can use the current income advantage to purchase one or more of the companies who are the manufacturers of SSD products to regain market share in the storage business.

In either case, Seagate leadership must maximize the income they make from today’s HDD sales, regardless of the future of SSD products.

[AZLiberty]

When my iMac hard drive (HD) wore out, I did a double transplant. I upgraded my original HD to two terabytes and I replaced the CD drive with a 256-gigabyte solid state drive (SSD). I designated the SSD as my main drive and reinstalled all my applications and commonly used file directories on the SSD.

My four-year-old iMac feels like a new computer. File-bound operations, including initial boot and starting up applications, are about three times as fast. Everything just springs to life.

For $300 (the combined price of the new drives), I got myself a brand new computer. It’s not as thin as the brand-new iMacs, but the performance is remarkable.

[Riflema]

Technically, there's a ton of merit in what you say. But there's a big problem in terms of financial "engineering" that may invalidate the advances in electronic engineering.

I'd be willing to bet that most of the firms that offer cloud based storage are leveraged to the gills, leasing their data centers, their servers, their storage. For those that are fastest growing in the sector, what happens to the customer's data when they skip a few months' payments in the next downturn and the repo men come to take the drives/SSDs?

The way the risk/reward ratio works these days practically drives new entrants to that approach, and, no, I have no idea what to do about it!

[discostu]

The cloud will never win. It has too many problems. Not the least of which being what happens when you lose connectivity. And on the personal level there’s the fact that lots of us have stuff on our computer we don’t want out in the world.

The simple fact is the cloud is a step backwards, it’s going back to the hub/ thin client model. Technology doesn’t go backwards it goes forwards. It’s why trains won’t replace cars.

The big reason buying MP3s has replaced buying CDs is because listening to MP3s has replaced listening to CDs. People buy a CD rip it and never touch it again. This replacement had already happened before anybody started adding the cloud to their MP3 selling method. That’s just a checkbox feature to compete with other MP3 sellers.

The stream can’t replace ownership. What we’re seeing is people deciding they don’t need to own a movie, they’re OK finding it (or not) on stream. But anything you actually want to have available you don’t want to stream because every couple of years there’s a good chance what you want will no longer be on your stream service.

People have been predicting a return to the thin client for longer than the 20 years I’ve been in software. The name keeps changing, the inaccuracy of the prediction remains the same.

[MV=PY]

A third thing they could do: deal with technological change like Kodak and declare bankruptcy.

[SamAdams76]

All valid points but with respect to connectivity, we are very quickly becoming a fully connected world.

My job takes me to many branch offices so not too long ago, packing an RJ-45 cable was a must because as soon as I arrived at a branch, I had to search for an available jack to get plugged into the network. I also carried a Sprint wireless card but it was notoriously unreliable.

Now every branch is fully wireless so my devices automatically connect to the network as soon as I enter the building. Ditto for home. I remember about 10 years ago considering major overhaul to my home so that I could install RJ-45 jacks in every room. Now even my home is fully wireless and the broadband is blazingly fast. It's been a couple years since I fussed with an RJ-45 patch cable.

The final link is the in between places but we are getting there fast. Most coffee shops, airports, and other public spaces now have broadband wireless options (hotspots). In fact, you can now setup your own hotspot with a smartphone.

All of this is progressing rather quickly. Companies like Google and Verizon are putting in much infrastructure to support coast-to-coast (and soon global) "always on" wireless capability. So you will soon be able to access your Gmail or files from anywhere on the planet.

Now people have privacy concerns about their personal data being in the cloud but I don't think they understand how their data is stored. Most cloud-based storage will break your data into bits and store them across multiple servers. So a piece of your file might be in Kansas City, another piece might be at a data center in Arizona, and so forth. When you request one of your cloud files, the pieces are collected and assembled before being delivered to you. All of this happens in milliseconds by the way and bits of your data are duplicated in multiple locations so that if one data center goes down, you are still able to assemble your files from the other locations.

For those super concerned about security, you can encrypt your data so that it will be useless to other people, even if they are able to collect all the pieces and put them together without your knowledge.

Yes, there are still ways for a determined hacker (or NSA) to breach your security measures. However, storing all your data on a local device is probably the least secure method of all because all it would take is for somebody to steal your computer (or hack into it) and they will have everything all at once.

[Diplomat]

In 2005 we put in solid state drives for our ERP system. Back then all of us in IT knew ssd would end up replacing hard drives. Seems like Jobs was 5 years behind the times. Of course we are running on MS platform, so forgive us for only being 5 years ahead of his proclamation.

The easiest way to look at ssd is to think how fast would my applications run if I replaced ny hard drive with a giant memory stick.