The cloud will never win. It has too many problems. Not the least of which being what happens when you lose connectivity. And on the personal level there’s the fact that lots of us have stuff on our computer we don’t want out in the world.
The simple fact is the cloud is a step backwards, it’s going back to the hub/ thin client model. Technology doesn’t go backwards it goes forwards. It’s why trains won’t replace cars.
The big reason buying MP3s has replaced buying CDs is because listening to MP3s has replaced listening to CDs. People buy a CD rip it and never touch it again. This replacement had already happened before anybody started adding the cloud to their MP3 selling method. That’s just a checkbox feature to compete with other MP3 sellers.
The stream can’t replace ownership. What we’re seeing is people deciding they don’t need to own a movie, they’re OK finding it (or not) on stream. But anything you actually want to have available you don’t want to stream because every couple of years there’s a good chance what you want will no longer be on your stream service.
People have been predicting a return to the thin client for longer than the 20 years I’ve been in software. The name keeps changing, the inaccuracy of the prediction remains the same.
My job takes me to many branch offices so not too long ago, packing an RJ-45 cable was a must because as soon as I arrived at a branch, I had to search for an available jack to get plugged into the network. I also carried a Sprint wireless card but it was notoriously unreliable.
Now every branch is fully wireless so my devices automatically connect to the network as soon as I enter the building. Ditto for home. I remember about 10 years ago considering major overhaul to my home so that I could install RJ-45 jacks in every room. Now even my home is fully wireless and the broadband is blazingly fast. It's been a couple years since I fussed with an RJ-45 patch cable.
The final link is the in between places but we are getting there fast. Most coffee shops, airports, and other public spaces now have broadband wireless options (hotspots). In fact, you can now setup your own hotspot with a smartphone.
All of this is progressing rather quickly. Companies like Google and Verizon are putting in much infrastructure to support coast-to-coast (and soon global) "always on" wireless capability. So you will soon be able to access your Gmail or files from anywhere on the planet.
Now people have privacy concerns about their personal data being in the cloud but I don't think they understand how their data is stored. Most cloud-based storage will break your data into bits and store them across multiple servers. So a piece of your file might be in Kansas City, another piece might be at a data center in Arizona, and so forth. When you request one of your cloud files, the pieces are collected and assembled before being delivered to you. All of this happens in milliseconds by the way and bits of your data are duplicated in multiple locations so that if one data center goes down, you are still able to assemble your files from the other locations.
For those super concerned about security, you can encrypt your data so that it will be useless to other people, even if they are able to collect all the pieces and put them together without your knowledge.
Yes, there are still ways for a determined hacker (or NSA) to breach your security measures. However, storing all your data on a local device is probably the least secure method of all because all it would take is for somebody to steal your computer (or hack into it) and they will have everything all at once.
You hit the bullseye on that. I still buy CDs just because I like physical control of the medium if I want the whole album, but about the only place I play a CD is in the car because it came out a year before the external player connector was standard. Right now I'm considering reripping my CDs at 192 kbps because I finally have a player I can hear the difference from 128.
When my last CD player died I considered not replacing it and just using my bluray for the CDs, but I found one cheap which also had a USB interface for playing and ripping.