Posted on 03/07/2014 10:31:28 PM PST by SatinDoll
Plenty of excuses out there for this evening's collosal miss in Chinese exports (-18.1% YoY vs an expectation of a 7.5% rise) mainly based on timing issues over the Lunar New Year (but didn't the 45 economists who forecast this data know the dates before they forecast?)
This is a 6-sigma miss and plunges China's trade balance to its biggest miss on record and 2nd largest deficit on record. Combining Jan and Feb data (i.e. smoothing over the holiday), exports are still down 1.6% YoY - not good for the much-heralded global recovery. Exports to the rest of the BRICs were all down over 20% but no there is no contagion from an emerging market crisis.
Even when the trade deficit was last this large, economists were more accurate - this is the biggest miss on record...
Seasonally-adjusted the data is stunningly bad...
*CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EXPORTS FALL 34% MOM *CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED IMPORTS FALL 0.4% MOM
and non-seaonally-adjusted
*CHINA'S FEB. EXPORTS FALL 18.1% FROM YEAR EARLIER (vs +7.5% expectations)
The excuse...
"The Spring Festival factor caused sharp fluctuations in the monthly growth rate as well as the monthly deficit," Customs said in a statement accompanying the data.
Chinese traders followed their "business habit" of bringing forward exports ahead of the holiday, and focusing on imports immediately afterwards, it added.
But, our simple question is - didn't they already know this when applying their forecasts? If so - then why a 6-standard-deviation miss?
At least they didn't blame the weather?!!
It seems the massive imports of copper - to act as collateral for all the shadow banking loans - also did not help as imports surged...
*CHINA JAN.-FEB. COPPER, PRODUCT IMPORTS 915,000 TONS
All that apparent demand and yet the price is collapsing - not good for the credit unwind
And what does it say about the US that our trade balance with China collapsed MoM...
Probably for the world at large.
I think they are killing off their people with pollution and poison while at the same time are making money. So, they are getting less people and richer at the same time.
Anybody but me noticing how China has been importing BIG quantities of critical wartime industry metals in the last 18 months or so?
From copper and aluminium to rare earths?
This is not going to be pretty.
“What is stopping them from just seizing it once things start to really go south in this country?”
That is exactly my main concern. We tend to go to war over such issues.
Yes, I’ve noticed.
So, do you remember the last time China went to war with a large nation on another continent?
Neither do I.
Yes, very soon.
They’ve got Russia for that. They’re in cahoots, latest I heard.
I have sold the lumber to build dozens of chicken house projects in the Carolinas in the last couple years. These projects were to get the chickens closer to the northeast and European markets. So unless you live on the west coast, most of the chicken you will buy in your grocery store will most likely come from NC.
China buys lots of framing lumber from the US and Canada. Most of the lumber they buy is middle to low grade. It is used for concrete forming, pallets and crates. They do not build a lot of single family homes like we do with western framing styles,ie. 2x4s in the walls. Most of their structures are missionary based.
What is interesting to see in my business is the increase in the amount of lumber we are shipping south of our border to Mexico. Factories have been built right across the border in places like Tijuana. We sell a company that just makes picture frames. Not only is there a factory there. They built housing and a school. It is in a gated and guarded compound to protect the workers and their families. I think this is the trend for low wage manufacturers who primarily want to sell their products to the US. There are other companies nearby that make furniture, cabinets and other things out of wood. All the raw material comes from the US. Therefore, I agree with another Freepree that many of these Chinese factories will shut down and move elsewhere. However, that elsewhere is probably south of our border, especially if the raw material and final product is primarily coming from and going to the US.
Missionary should be masonry. Stupid Kindle.
It's also a means of converting excess US$ into useful and durable commodities. And it tends to drive up material costs for competitors.
This report points directly to the slowdown in the American economy.
This is the news within the news.
I like it.
If anything the Chinese impress me as a people who almost obsess about the future, the long term. It would surprise me greatly if all of their resource exploitation wasn’t with this in mind. That is, that they know they have centuries worth of at least some, and thus, could trade surpluses of some resource or resources they have in abundance for other resources they need now (or will need in the near future).
They are a very industrious and hard working people. And very smart when it comes to saving things (not just money) for the future.
I read all kinds of reports that the po folks too po to shop at Walmart are shopping the Dollar Stores.
About two years ago Family Dollar stocks was rising and Walmart’s was sinking
When I lived in Hong Kong from 2006-2008, Chinese imports of pork and chicken were recalled almost weekly. The Park N Shop Supermarkets had three lines of meats, those from the Anglo Saxon countries, the rest of the world, and then China. Chinese meat products look different side-by-side, cost 75% and tasted horrible. Couple that with the safety recalls and it is an untouchable product.
The article says Chinese Exports collapse... that means the stuff China exports to other countries. So China has a trade deficit now??? Is that possible?
The Chinese economy is now about fifteen times larger than it was when I started reading incessant reports that the Chinese economy would collapse. Eventually, China WILL have to hit a real recession (as opposed to slowing down to merely the growth rate America has only ever seen in one year (1984) since I’ve been alive). But will it become 1/15th its curent size? No way. Will it become 90% its current size? doubtfully.
To answer my own previous question: Yes, China actually has a trade DEFICIT.
China running a trade deficit is like an arsonist running out of matches. How ironic..
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