Posted on 03/03/2014 5:35:39 AM PST by Alter Kaker
The 2016 presidential election is Jeb Bush’s now-or-never-moment.
As other potential GOP standard-bearers have been hit by scandal or seen their luster fade, many Republicans desperately want the former Florida governor to get in the race.
His allies say he is considering it more seriously than ever before. They believe he could be their Goldilocks candidate: Not too conservative, not too centrist; not too dull, not too unpredictable; not too inexperienced, and not too marred by scandal. In fact, just right.
But many of his greatest potential advantages could also be liabilities.
The Bush name gives him a deep and broad political network, but sour memories of his brother’s presidency still fester, while the notion of a third Bush in the White House since his father won in 1988 might strike voters as too dynastic. It could, ironically, also make the alternative of a second Clinton presidency, via Hillary, seem fresher and more attractive.
Jeb has not held elected office since 2007, which leaves him untainted by recent political dysfunction. But having fought no big political fights for so long might also have made him ring-rusty.
Witness the fumbled rollout of his 2013 book, Immigration Wars, which left people guessing whether he supported a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.
Still, his name hangs over the Republican field. If he takes the plunge, he would instantly become a top-flight contender.
Late last month, Slater Bayliss, a Florida Republican lobbyist, took his son to see a Miami Heat basketball game and had breakfast with Bush, for whom he was a close aide during the latter’s time as governor.
“I’ve never seen him so seriously considering a run for higher office,” Bayliss said. “He’s legitimately going through a very methodical, thoughtful process to come to a decision.”
As Bush speaks to many of his business and political associates, the conversations often tend to shift toward 2016, Bayliss said, adding, “People who are generally in touch with him about ideas now pivot those conversations to be more about politics because they see an opening.”
Ana Navarro, who worked in Bush’s gubernatorial administration and was an adviser to his older brother’s presidential campaign, confirmed that the younger Bush is giving serious scrutiny to a White House run.
“Certainly he is going into more detail about it than he has ever before,” said the GOP strategist. “In the past he has shut the door completely. This time he’s telling us he is going to think about it.”
Bush himself said in January that he will make a decision “later this year,” and it will be based on whether he can run in the right spirit.
“The decision will be based on, can I do it joyfully? Because I think we need candidates to lift our spirits; it’s a pretty pessimistic country right now,” Bush told a local CBS affiliate. “And is it right for my family? So I don’t want to even think about that until the right time, and that’s later on.”
Republicans are looking for a leader on such issues as immigration and education reform, which resonate with voters nationally. Jeb certainly looks right on those issues. His is a multicultural family; his wife is from Mexico, and he speaks fluent Spanish, which could help the GOP appeal to Latinos.
Many party strategists believe Bush could transform the electoral map, turning blue states purple and purple states red.
Others point out that the “dynasty” problem might be neutralized if Hillary Clinton gets the Democratic nomination, as many people expect.
Still, Bush’s toughest critic on this point could be his mother. Barbara Bush has repeatedly joked that the country does not need any more Bushes or Clintons, given that members of those two clans have been centrally involved in eight of the nine presidential campaigns since 1980.
Since leaving the governor’s mansion, Jeb has become president of his own consulting firm and a senior adviser to Barclays Capital, giving him the recent private-sector credibility he would need to make a pitch as a business-oriented candidate, if that is the profile he seeks to emphasize.
Bush also benefits from the troubles of his potential rivals. Recent turmoil has damaged two Republican establishment favorites, Govs. Chris Christie of New Jersey and, to a lesser extent, Scott Walker of Wisconsin, while once-rising stars Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana have lost much momentum.
Donors are among those looking toward Bush as a savior. Navarro said she has been fielding calls from GOP donors who had never met Bush but want to sit down and talk with him.
Chris Bravacos, a party strategist and former Mitt Romney bundler, says there are “no barriers” to a Bush campaign now.
“A Jeb Bush candidacy would be extremely attractive, if he’s running, to an awful lot of people,” Bravacos said. “I think a lot of people feel that the door is certainly wide open, particularly if Hillary Clinton is the nominee. Then you’re already reaching backwards anyway.”
Navarro emphasized, however, that Bush is not yet clearly signaling he will run, as some others have done. When they see each other at the Biltmore, the Miami hotel that she and her husband own and where Bush has an office, they “speak like normal people,” not mentioning his future aspirations.
“I know it strikes people as strange because that’s not what we’re used to from politicians, but Jeb actually means what he says and says what he means,” Navarro said. “The art of the political tease, showing some leg, it’s just completely lost on the man.”
So don’t expect Bush to make the traditional pilgrimages to early-primary states, or to suck up to donors such as Sheldon Adelson, or to inflame the Conservative Political Action Conference; he is skipping the annual conservative convention this year. He will make moves only when he has made the decision to run, allies say.
Navarro did say that Bush gets “more invitations than a wealthy debutante” to early primary states, many of which she fields, but he tends to turn most down.
Some take his silence as a sign he will not run after all. Bravacos was slightly surprised at renewed speculation because he had seen nothing to suggest that Bush was moving toward the 2016 race.
“It’s not like there’ve been many public indications that he’s definitely interested in doing it,” he said.
Bravacos noted that, until Bush makes moves, donors will not be making any commitments.
Logistically they cannot do so. Unlike other hopefuls, Bush does not even have a super-PAC or active campaign account, so there is no clear way for donors to support him financially.
But he might be able to short circuit the normal courtship rituals.
His name and network remains “large and robust,” according to Florida GOP strategist Rick Wilson.
“A candidate like Jeb Bush has an opportunity and an ability to throw an infrastructure together for a campaign that’s a lot faster than other people might have,” Wilson added.
Still, in a party full of people waiting for Jeb, his allies wish he would hurry up and run.
Navarro is among those hoping he makes his intentions clear. “I’m not the most patient of people,” she said. “If I had a dollar for every journalist who calls wanting to know where Jeb’s head is, I could buy myself a really fancy pair of shoes.”
Great. The Dems are cheering.
Don’t forget that the important thing is to get the GOP - as a party - back into power. This will involve some marginal people and will probably, even if inadvertently, get some good people among the appointments and hiring an administration has to do.
I thought Romney was awful and it literally made me angry to have to vote for him, but still, I voted for him and I also worked the polls as usual. Focus on the objective, which is to get the Dems out and purge the government of Obama’s influence. Any GOPer is going to be better than any Dem.
Since that time we have learned that the GOPe has openly set their faces against Tea Party patriots. Further, many, myself included, no longer feel any sense of national obligation to hold our nose and vote for someone simply because they're on the Republican ticket. That ship has sailed. Many Republicans stayed home in 2012 rather than vote for Romney. Man, many more will stay home in 2016 if the GOPe shafts us with their hand-picked boy is on the ballot, whoever that may be.
No.
Nein.
Nyet.
Non.
Never again. For almost thirty years we have been offered one liberal after another by the GOP-E. We have held our noses, reached out as far as we could to avoid the stench, and cast our votes under duress for the “lesser of two evils.” And what have we gained? What are the great domestic achievements of the national Republican party since Ronald Reagan?
The largest Medicare expansion in history; and
The Patriot Act.
We have been tricked, conned, bamboozled, flimflammed, cheated and robbed. NO MORE. Conservatives ONLY from now on, and if that means we get a Dem or two in office while the GOP-E gets the message, that is the price we will have to pay to save the country. I think the USA is strong enough to withstand a short time under Dem rule, IF it gets long-term Conservative leadership as a result. I do NOT think the USA is strong enough to withstand never-ending tradeoffs between Communism and Communism-lite.
I swear by God above that I will never again lie to myself or to the Nation by voting for a candidate I know to be unfit.
The RINOs don’t believe you. Half of FR said that about McCain and Romney, yet most of us shrugged our shoulders, shilled out campaign donations and knocked doors in the end...
***
Yes, many of us said, “Okay, one more time. After all, Romney is a better choice than Obamugabe.” But I do not see that happening again.
It really does not matter, anyway, in the long run. I am a boomer, and really do not expect to see another non-rigged presidential election in my lifetime.
ATTENTION: I will NEVER vote for another Bush under any circumstances... period... end of story.
Crony communists.
Ted Cruz can be the peak of perfection and rant and rave as much as he wants, but unless the GOP gets control over the WH again, he’s just a side-show. And that’s how he’s being treated by the media; any ideas he has just get ignored because they know there’s no chance of anything becoming real, and they simply feature his rants to show how powerless the GOP is.
We NEED to get a GOP president elected in 2016. I would doubt that it’s going to be Cruz, and it may be somebody I don’t like (I can think of several), but I’m voting for him or her anyway. The time to express this loyalty to “your” candidate is during the primaries, not in the general election.
I'm all in on never, Alex.
never
Oh, no, it's all about celebrity, and HRC HAS IT!
Are you for George P. in TX tomorrow? They tout him as the wave of the future.
I voted for romney-kennedy but 20% of the electorate that are Conservative will never again vote for a liberal like Bush so they either run a viable Conservative or they lose. There could have been no obama without a George Bush.
Jeb Bush should stay home and get a kitten
That crap will not work in 2016... bank on it. The TEA Party is pissed at the gop... we are not gop... and we will not vote for the lesser of two evils ever again. How nany of us? Enough to keep the gop as the losers that they are. They must come to our way of thinking or it is curtains. There is no difference between the gop leadership and the rat leadership... they are acting out scripts as they do in the WWE.
Jeb's head is easy to find, but for the rest of us it's in a place that's physically impossible for us to reach.
Takeaway the name and what’s left...nothing of substance.
OK, I know the big O didn’t even have name or substance but he got elected on his looks, promises, and eloquence.
I want to see some new faces/names in the next election who will make their mission one of restoring this country to the greatness and prosperity it once had.
1. Who will swear before GOD to defend and uphold the constitution our forefathers fought and died for.
2. Who respects the rights of individual citizens to privacy, freedom, etc. as given in the bill of rights.
3. Who will acknowledge the powers reserved to states by the constitution.
4. Who will faithfully execute the laws of the land, not legislate, not judge.
5. Who can tell the media to piss off.
Feel free to add to my list...
I don't care what the corrupt MSM peddles, Hillary is not a shoe-in. I'd love to see an unbiased internal poll on her favorability rating. And, as I've said before, Hillary is just not a great campaigner and she older now, more tired. And make no mistake, Benghazi will hurt her.
IMO, Hillary is in the exact same position as Gabby Gifford. Hillary is a tired wreck who is being totally manipulated by Bill and his supporting cast much the same way Mark Kelly and his anti-gun crowd is manipulating Giffords.
I just wonder if people will be nostalgic for competence and a known commodity that JEB would represent. I think mostly Bush would have to perhaps acknowledge some mistakes of his brother and then promise competence. And, what if Bush put Ted Cruz on the ticket? Now what?
I’ll be honest - I haven’t educated myself about him, because I don’t live in TX. I am highly suspicious of him based on his family, but I don’t have a strong opinion yet either way.
When he makes a move into national politics, I’ll learn more.
Right on, right on, right on.
“Also, open borders, amnesty, no courage. Would never have the courage to shut down Depts. of Energy, Edumacation, Commerce, Labor, etc. Would NEVER have the courage to end the Fed and go on the Gold Standard. Would never support the FAIR Tax and repeal of the 16th Amendment.”
The Bush family believes in big government, crony capitalism, and global institutions having supremacy over nation states. The Bush family is highly allied with the Saudi nobility. The Bush family is very close to the Clinton family. We also have 12 years of experience with members of the Bush family holding the office of President. If you vote for another Bush you should expect more military interventions, more one sided “free trade” deals, continued expansion of the federal government and moderate Supreme Court nominees who turn anti Constitution as soon as they are on the court (Souter, Roberts). In addition, you can expect to hear the Democrats and the media attacking the administration everyday with no pushback. For some reason, the Bushes are not fighters when it comes to politics once they are elected.
The only thing positive about Jeb is he is not Hillary or Obama. Once again the GOP seems to be intent of offering its base the choice of “lesser of two evils”.
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