Posted on 11/25/2013 12:55:16 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Edited on 11/25/2013 2:14:11 PM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]
Why did all the experts get the hurricane season outlook so wrong?
Twelve forecast teams predicted an average of 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes, four major. Yet this season, which ends Saturday, saw only 13 named storms, including two mediocre Category 1 hurricanes.
(Excerpt) Read more at orlandosentinel.com ...
Because "scientific consensus" does not necessarily mean RIGHT.
For supposedly smart people, these so-called scientist let their agenda get in their way too much of the time.
The Sun seems to be the main factor here, and seems to be always left out of the discussion.
Cooling? How can that be, I own two SUV’s? Guess I need to buy a third to do my part to reduce the cooling trend.
They ‘blew’the forecasts because...they can’t predict the future! They can’t reliably predict storms when they DO exist, and they admit that they are ‘unpredictable’! When did this stupidity start? These current ‘meterologists’ are more dependent on their computers and gadgets than science. NO one can tell you what the weather will be before it exists and they look like fools playing ‘Karnak’( a-la Johnny Carson). What good would it do if they COULD see the future hurricane season correctly? What could you do about September weather in December/January? Seriously! It’s all about air-time and ego-and sensationalizing weather while increasing their relevancy.
Local weathermen here in New Orleans are really pathetic. They are more comedians and entertainers who are playing with peoples lives and property by crying wolf. No one takes them seriously-and that could be fatal when it comes to a Katrina.
Don’t try to predict number of storms, that simple. Each hurricane season will be quiet-busy on it’s own. This season had weaker hurricanes than other seasons did. The systems just did not have the right conditions to get really strong.
too bad Psychic Friends Hotline didn’t see their demise coming
SHHHH! You’re gonna blow their billion dollar wealth redistribution and scientific papers racket if you spill the beans that they really can’t accurately predict the weather trends for the coming year, let alone next 50 years, LET ALONE the next 7 days.
Heck, they can't get tomorrow's local temp right more than 10% of the time.
My forecaster has a "Three Degree Guarantee" forecast - he'll be right, to within three degrees of the next day's high temp. For those in Rio Linda, that's SEVEN degrees of latitude (+3 above, -3 below, and the correct temp).
Even with all of the leeway, he still regularly misses his "guaranteed" temp prediction. For local temps. On the 11pm news. For the next day - so the prediction is for within a few hours.
And the same people are going to use the same models to predict hurricanes and their strengths a year out? Or global temperatures for 100 years out?
Gimme a break.
The presumptive premise is wrong.
The presumption is that adequate knowledge exists to accurately forecast events as random as hurricanes.
There is no such knowledge at all, much less enough to make an accurate prediction.
The man had to write something but chose a poor subject
In other words, they just guessed.
I used to pay 10 bucks a year for the weather underground. I stopped when Masters sent a response to an e-mail to me where I challenged his website's unrelenting belief in AGW. He basically told me that I was all wrong to NOT believe in Globull warming.
Too bad, because I really like the site and the information available.
Since they are using fanciful data to predict man made global warming, why aren't using fanciful data to report what is actually happening? Instead of only three category 1 hurricanes they should be reporting that there were actually 15 category 1-5 hurricanes this last season with 6 of them being category 5. The entire east coast was either washed away or was pushed up to the smokey mountains. It was the worst season since last year when there was only 5 category 5 storms and 14 storms all together. ITS GETTING WORSE G*D DAMMIT! I TELL YOU ITS IS GETTING WORSE!!! (SARC)
Three words: Our Models Suck.
Let alone tomorrow! Today is a perfect example. ALL of the meterologists are predicting snow for the Northeast/NY area on Thursday-and they will be right. But local comedians can’t tell you if it will sleet here tomorrow.
Meterology: the only profession where you can be PUBLICLY, CONSISTENTLY wrong and still keep your job!
Aha! I knew if I looked long enough I’d find the article I was looking for!
Why do they predict horrible hurricane seasons? So no one will remember when they’re wrong later.
.......
Top U.S. storm team sees above average Atlantic hurricane season
Reuters ^
Posted on Wednesday, April 10, 2013 1:29:17 PM by Sub-Driver
Top U.S. storm team sees above average Atlantic hurricane season Photo 12:20pm EDT
By Kevin Gray
MIAMI (Reuters) - The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season will be “above average” with 18 tropical storms, nine of which will intensify into hurricanes, forecasters at Colorado State University predicted on Wednesday.
Four of the hurricanes will be major with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour, the leading U.S. storm research team said.
An average season brings about 12 tropical storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, according to CSU. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
The prediction for a busier 2013 season was based on two factors, the researchers said. Hurricanes thrive on warm water and the Atlantic Ocean has warmed in recent months.
There is also little expectation of an El Nino effect this summer and fall.
El Nino is a warming of surface waters in the tropical Pacific that occurs every four to 12 years and has far-ranging effects around the globe. The weather phenomenon creates wind shear that makes it harder for storms to develop into hurricanes in the Atlantic-Caribbean basin.
The researchers said there was a 72 percent chance that a major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast this year, compared with a historical average of 52 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
Well, if you're going to build a crystal ball you should at least start with a credible source.
“We’re out of darts, apply for another grant”
Do your weather ‘personalities’ INSIST on pretending they WERE right by saying things like ‘Now that the heavy weather is moving out...’ or ‘the storm in the Atlantic ‘shouldn’t affect us ( in Texas)? Mine insist that stuff that never happened did, and now its over and the surreal charade makes you wonder what weather they were looking at; or if they ever looked out the window and noticed they were WRONG!
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