Posted on 11/17/2013 5:44:15 PM PST by ckilmer
key points.....
“What not everyone knows is that horizontal drilling techniques and hydraulic fracturing currently recover less than 20% of the oil in place, and in some places even less than that.
Total production costs have fallen from around $80 a barrel three years ago to around $50 to $60 a barrel today at the most advanced producers’ sites. As WTI prices continue to slide, wringing out production costs will become more important than ever. Energy consulting firm Bentek has said that even if oil prices fall to around $60 a barrel production will continue to grow.”
So the only cloud on the horizon is Obama and the Dems.
the USA has dug itself into capital hole....that is the USA has been exporting money for decades to pay for oil and what not.
It will take several decades for our country to recapitalize.
The elements are currently in place for this to happen.
Lots and lots of things can go wrong. Known wrecking balls are the democrats. Prayer is helpful on this score.
-——Can Fracking Keep U.S. No.1 Oil Producer? -——
It doesn’t matter
-——Can Fracking Keep U.S. No.1 Oil Producer? -——
It doesn’t matter
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It does matter for at least the next decade —or until something else better comes along. The biggest most important thing is that fracking shifts capital flows around the world. Fracking steadily shrinks the size of the trade deficit. Fracking will steadily lower the cost of oil. Fracking will undergird the US economy —producing 2% economic growth alone— so that despite the tremendous screw ups of the Obama administration — the USA will stay afloat. Fracking contributes about 100 billion to federal coffers annually — shrinking the size of the federal deficit.
The authors believe based on their interviews with the big companies involved that the fracking revolution is only getting started.
You confuse producing lots of oil and being number 1
it is possible to be oil independent and not be the #1 producer.
I guess the phrase “well respected” is being corrupted.
Not if Obama can prevent it.
Production cost do not include exploration cost, ie, reserve replacement cost.
You confuse producing lots of oil and being number 1
it is possible to be oil independent and not be the #1 producer.
..............
The key points in the article based on inteviews with the majors—are that fracking costs have plunged from $80@ barrel to $50-60@ barrel. That current technology is only getting 20% of the oil in place. That the companies involved in fracking believe that the USA is only in the very earliest days of the technology.
What’s the point here.
The point is that there is enough visibility to predict that production can grow by 1 million barrels@ day for the next 2-3 years—as it has for the last three. Citibank analysts have separately said that they expect that the USA will become oil independent by 2020. That means that production will have to rise by five million barrels @ day.
Does being oil independent mean that the USA will be the #1 oil producer in the world? Not necessarily.
But oil independence is certainly a step in the right direction,.
Here’s the way citibank puts it.
The probability of North American energy independence is extremely high, but even the prospects of US energy independence are real. Burgeoning US energy independence brings with it an opportunity to re-define the parameters of post-Cold War foreign policy and provides unexpected opportunities for the country’s foreign and trade policy.
The implications for the global petroleum sector — for trade, for shipping, for the relationships among crude oil streams — are also profound, as are the implications for oil prices, which will be weighed significantly by this profound change in the position of the United States. Perhaps the most significant change in store befalls the geopolitics of oil and natural gas, where there is a long list of winners and losers, and where win-win solutions for producing and consumer countries might well prove to be elusive and where bitter politics of adjustment could be another complicating element of the global geopolitical landscape.https://www.citivelocity.com/citigps/ReportSeries.action?recordId=16
Not if Obama can prevent it.
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true. that’s the wild card in this business.
This may help explain the difference and why one cost is discussed separately from the other.
Obama will be gone in 3 years. The wild card is who will replace him.
Production cost do not include exploration cost, ie, reserve replacement cost.
...........
Yeah, you’ve mentioned that before. But technology is such a huge wild card. Consider the statement that they’re only getting 20% of the oil “in place” with current technology.
I find that shocking. I thought they were getting 40% of the oil in place. 20% leaves a whole lot of room for growth 10-20 years from now when technology improves with no exploration or reserve replacement costs.
Something I don’t understand but maybe you can explain. The article says
“According to an engineering manager at oil field services giant Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB) told Platts that U.S. shale production is only going to go up. His reasons: the vast size of the resource and growing familiarity with it. He also said that there’s plenty of room to improve extraction techniques and minimize the pushback from environmental groups. In the Eagle Ford shale play, for example, Schlumberger now uses well log data to determine the first five wells to drill in a new area. The technique has improved production by 33%. “
Do you consider well log data to be a facet of drilling costs or exploration costs.
Well...not everyone knows where China is on the globe.
Obama will be gone in 3 years. The wild card is who will replace him.
.......
If obamacare is still killing the dems, then likely a republican. That will take out the risk of the feds screwing the oil companies and may even make such places like Nevada open for oil drilling. (imho there’s there’s a couple billion barrels of drill-able oil there that the feds have locked up.)
That said 2016 is a long way away. Anything can happen between now and then.
Everyone knows...Everyone also knows...
Well...not everyone knows where China is on the globe.
............
China may well be a big shale gas producer in 5-10 years.
We’ll see. The USA has the infrastructure in place to do the fracking. Maybe saudi arabia does too. but few other countries already have the infrastructure in place to do the fracking. That’s expensive.
Do you understand how many decades it took us to change 20% in traditional reservoirs to 30%, and tertiary methods to 40%?
This isn't something just waiting around for someone to take a look at it. It is a massive undertaking.
Well log data can be part of either production development or exploration, if I understand it correctly. If you are drilling in a new area, well log data is part of the analysis in finding commercial plays. It is also used to select the best drilling locations and the like for developing a play found to be commercial producing.
I know it is wikipedia but it includes links to real sources at the bottom of the page.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydraulic_fracturing_by_country
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